Dwayne Bowe has been an enigma if nothing else. He’s feuded with coaches, referred to his owner’s (Clark Hunt) family as “the Clarks”, been one of the best wide receivers in the league, looked completely disinterested in football, been one of the best wide receivers in the league again, and as of late, been made nearly irrelevant by a man named Palko. Even within 2011 he’s been maddening:
- In week 1 against a suspect Bills’ secondary Bowe caught two passes for 17 yards in a blowout loss
- Over the next 4 weeks he averaged 101 yards per game and scored 4 TDs
- Since then he’s not scored a touchdown, not topped 100 yards in a game, and only topped 80 yards twice
So if you’re like me and you have D-Bowe on your fantasy team, you’ve probably had him on your bench for the last three weeks. You can’t be blamed for completely falling asleep on Bowe, or the miserable Chiefs offense. However, if you’re still in the playoffs, it’s time to wake up. Bowe may be poised to have his biggest game of the season in Week 15 against the Packers. Why?
- If you believe the rumors coming out of KC, the last straw for HC Todd Haley came when he mocked Bowe for reporting some terrible things Haley had said to him to GM Scott Pioli. Bowe’s success has always been predicated on his level of buy-in. A week after Haley’s been fired, how hard do you think he’s going to play?
- The Chiefs and Bowe have been discussing extensions, and if he doesn’t get one Bowe knows he’s likely looking at the franchise tag next season. Think there’s any motivation there?
- The Packers pass defense has surrendered huge fantasy numbers this season, everybody knows that. Theirs is a risk/reward approach, and with all the passing the Chiefs will be doing on Sunday they will get burnt a couple of times, like they always do.
- Kyle Orton is starting. Orton threw for 273 yard and 3 TDs against this same defense in Week 4 this year. Sure he also threw three picks, but that’s irrelevant to Bowe’s performance. If there’s one thing we’ve seen from both Orton and Bowe it’s that they’re both willing to pad their stats in a blowout loss. They should have a full half of stat padding against the juggernaut Packers.
That’s 4 solid reasons to get Bowe off your bench and into your starting line up, you won’t regret it. Don’t have Bowe? Scrambling for a risk/reward play at WR? Here’ 4 more I think that could far outplay their rankings in Week 15(all rankings courtesy of footballguys.com):
Jabar Gaffney (ranked 31st on FBG) – Santana Moss has not been the same since returning from injury and the Giants pass defense has been terrible this season.
Eric Decker (ranked 50th)- Everyone should get in on the party in what should be a high scoring game vs the Pats. Decker is definitely high risk, but have you seen the Pats secondary?
Malcolm Floyd (ranked 53rd)- The only guy on this list with a bad match up, but Floyd can get behind the defense at any point for a score. You know the Ravens are going to focus heavily on Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.
Early Doucet (ranked 66th)- Joe Haden is going to be all over Larry Fitzgerald and Doucet has quietly put together a decent season.
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Raider Week from a Fantasy Perspective
I'll admit it, I was a little disturbed when I first saw that I was assigned the Chiefs-Raiders game this week for Football Guys. No matter what Steve says, I am a true Chiefs fan...so of course, I'm also a Raider Hater. My first thought was "How am I going to be objective through this donnybrook?" I mean, let's be honest...journalistic integrity hasn't exactly been a focal point of this blog. Of course then it hit me...this isn't just Raiders Week...this is the most interesting NFL game this week from a fantasy football perspective. I'm lucky to have this game. Hence, I bring you my top 4 story lines from Chiefs-Raiders.
The debut of Carson Palmer?
I'll admit it, I'm not one of those people killing the Raiders for this trade. Did they give up too much? Absolutely....but isn't that exactly what you'd want your team to do in this situation? The Raiders are 4-2 with Kansas city (twice), Denver, Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami left on their schedule. With their roster, even an adequate QB wins 5 of those games, maybe 6. Steal one against San Diego and you're looking at a division title.
So the question becomes, is Carson Palmer still an adequate QB? I think we find out on Sunday even if he doesn't start. No matter how talented the Raiders are, I don't think they're good enough to beat the Chiefs with Kyle Boller at QB and if they have playoff aspirations, this is a must win. So even if Hue Jackson doesn't have the cajones to start Palmer, I think we'll see him in this game. How he performs may be the biggest storyline of Week 7.
Does Jackie Battle get the ball?
Todd Haley spent most of last year giving Thomas Jones far more carries than he deserved in light of Jamal Charles' dominance. Some argue that Charles' dominance was because of the small workload and not despite it, but even if he falls to 5 yards a carry, he's a much better play than the 3 yards and cloud of dust the 33 year old Jones produces. So, if Charles couldn't wrestle carries away from Jones why would Battle? Jamal Charles is the future of this franchise and he's undersized. Haley could legitimately argue(wrongly I'd say) that it's in the best interest of the franchise to limit Charles' carries. With Battle there is no such argument. He's big, he's 28 years old, and (assuming Charles comes back full strength next year) his future value to the franchise is negligible. If Battle is truly more effective than Jones (and if you've watched the Chiefs this year you know he is) Haley has no excuse to not give him 20 carries a game. If he does, there's no reason to think he couldn't become a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes.
Which Oakland WR emerges with a new QB?
The Raiders receivers have been teasing fantasy owners for years. If Carson Palmer is (still) better than Jason Campbell, it's conceivable that one of them could turn into a fantasy stud...but which one? Jacoby Ford is ridiculously fast, and equally athletic...but for some reason has never turned that promise into results. Darrius Heyward-Bey is also explosive and has the whole 3rd-year-breakout-WR thing going for him. Denarius Moore got all of the preseason pub and exploded onto the scene a little over a month ago, but has all but disappeared since. Is it possible that all three of these talents WRs remain fantasy disappointments? Yeah, but it's also possible that Carson Palmer makes one (or more) of them relevant, and that would be huge.
Is Matt Cassel to Dwayne Bowe once again turning into one of the most dominant QB-WR pairs in the league?
Last year these two hooked up for over 1100 yards an 15 TDs to make them the most prolific duo in the league. Throughout the off season (and the first two weeks of this season) the popular theory was that an inferior schedule was mostly responsible. But since week 2 Bowe has 16 catches for 302 yards and 4 TDs putting him back on pace to be one of the top fantasy WRs in the league. A lot has been made about how much more difficult the Chiefs' schedule is this season but, in terms of pass defense, it's really not lining up that way. The Chiefs remaining schedule includes 4 of the 5 worst pass defenses in the league this season and 8 of their last 12 games are against the bottom 3rd of the league. The Raiders are one of those bad pass defenses and another good showing could turn Cassel into a borderline fantasy QB1 and cements Bowe's spot in the elite WRs.
The debut of Carson Palmer?
I'll admit it, I'm not one of those people killing the Raiders for this trade. Did they give up too much? Absolutely....but isn't that exactly what you'd want your team to do in this situation? The Raiders are 4-2 with Kansas city (twice), Denver, Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami left on their schedule. With their roster, even an adequate QB wins 5 of those games, maybe 6. Steal one against San Diego and you're looking at a division title.
So the question becomes, is Carson Palmer still an adequate QB? I think we find out on Sunday even if he doesn't start. No matter how talented the Raiders are, I don't think they're good enough to beat the Chiefs with Kyle Boller at QB and if they have playoff aspirations, this is a must win. So even if Hue Jackson doesn't have the cajones to start Palmer, I think we'll see him in this game. How he performs may be the biggest storyline of Week 7.
Does Jackie Battle get the ball?
Todd Haley spent most of last year giving Thomas Jones far more carries than he deserved in light of Jamal Charles' dominance. Some argue that Charles' dominance was because of the small workload and not despite it, but even if he falls to 5 yards a carry, he's a much better play than the 3 yards and cloud of dust the 33 year old Jones produces. So, if Charles couldn't wrestle carries away from Jones why would Battle? Jamal Charles is the future of this franchise and he's undersized. Haley could legitimately argue(wrongly I'd say) that it's in the best interest of the franchise to limit Charles' carries. With Battle there is no such argument. He's big, he's 28 years old, and (assuming Charles comes back full strength next year) his future value to the franchise is negligible. If Battle is truly more effective than Jones (and if you've watched the Chiefs this year you know he is) Haley has no excuse to not give him 20 carries a game. If he does, there's no reason to think he couldn't become a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes.
Which Oakland WR emerges with a new QB?
The Raiders receivers have been teasing fantasy owners for years. If Carson Palmer is (still) better than Jason Campbell, it's conceivable that one of them could turn into a fantasy stud...but which one? Jacoby Ford is ridiculously fast, and equally athletic...but for some reason has never turned that promise into results. Darrius Heyward-Bey is also explosive and has the whole 3rd-year-breakout-WR thing going for him. Denarius Moore got all of the preseason pub and exploded onto the scene a little over a month ago, but has all but disappeared since. Is it possible that all three of these talents WRs remain fantasy disappointments? Yeah, but it's also possible that Carson Palmer makes one (or more) of them relevant, and that would be huge.
Is Matt Cassel to Dwayne Bowe once again turning into one of the most dominant QB-WR pairs in the league?
Last year these two hooked up for over 1100 yards an 15 TDs to make them the most prolific duo in the league. Throughout the off season (and the first two weeks of this season) the popular theory was that an inferior schedule was mostly responsible. But since week 2 Bowe has 16 catches for 302 yards and 4 TDs putting him back on pace to be one of the top fantasy WRs in the league. A lot has been made about how much more difficult the Chiefs' schedule is this season but, in terms of pass defense, it's really not lining up that way. The Chiefs remaining schedule includes 4 of the 5 worst pass defenses in the league this season and 8 of their last 12 games are against the bottom 3rd of the league. The Raiders are one of those bad pass defenses and another good showing could turn Cassel into a borderline fantasy QB1 and cements Bowe's spot in the elite WRs.
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