Return to Futility

The title of this blog may have to do with the current state of our hapless Royals but it could also reflect my first blog post in 5 months. I'll address the latter before the former at least partially because the former makes me sick to my stomach. It seems blogging isn't for me because I can't pretend like a bunch of people are reading what I'm writing and I feel a little silly talking to my friends in the same pompous self serving way that most writers speak to their readers. So, generally, when I have something to blog about I find someone to call, and rant for 15 minutes...I get my fix and better yet don't have to worry about misspelling Jorge De La Rosa and hearing about from some DB that scours the internet looking for blog errors.

Regardless, I love my Royals...with every inch of me. It started when I was just a kid, sitting in my Poppy's truck every summer night listening to the game and inhaling his secondhand cigar smoke.

The problem is, well, I love the Royals...and some times that is enough to drive a guy insane. So, once again I believed again...only when I believe it's different, I buy in 100%..and then it comes crashing down. Well, this time when it came crashing down it was different...I just don't get it.

Three years ago we put our faith in a man named Dayton...to deliver us from the past transgressions of Herk and Allard, Glass and Muser, and all the people who'd wronged this great franchise in the past. Almost immediately, he was able to persuade Glass to pen his pocketbook and when he did we opened our hearts. We trusted again...things were going to be different...we had Alex Gordon and Billy Butler coming and Zack was getting his head right and we were going to spend money and in just a couple of years we'd be a contender...and not a flash-in-the-pan-2003-where-did-that-come-from contender, but a real, talented, bona fide contender. First there was Meche, then signs of brilliance from Zack, the arrival of Billy, a power hitting outfielder, Soria became a star, a left handed bat...and 2009 arrived...people were calling us a sleeper...the Royals! And they weren't laughing! So why is this happening? Why do we suck again?

That brings me to why I'm back...a three part series on the history of Dayton Moore as a General Manager. To this point I've only completed part one, so I don't know how this ends...then again, I'm looking at the same Royals you are...so I kind of do.

YEAR 1 DRAFT
That's right, despite what Dayton says, I'm holding him accountable for the 2006 draft. There is no way you take over a team and then let someone else draft for you...not when a farm system is as depleted as ours was at the time. Maybe he didn't have full control, but I'm only looking at the first 4 rounds which I assume he had at least a hand in. If nothing else, it's his staff that's (allegedly) developed these players.

Round 1- 1st over all- Luke Hochevar. I won't spend too long on Hoch, because we all know what he is (or at least looks like to this point): The quintessential AAAA pitcher. He's lights out in Omaha and lit up in the Bigs. I'm not giving up on him by any means, but I think best case scenario we're looking at a 3-4 starter...Jeff Suppan if you will. And that's best case. It bears mentioning that Hochevar is the only player from the last three drafts to sniff the majors thus far. That's not an indictment of Dayton, but...

Round 2- #45 overall- Jason Taylor- 21 year old 3rd baseman played all of last year for Class A Burlington Bees. Hit .242 with 17 Hrs and 58 RBI, stole 40 bases and struck out 97 times in 127 games. Has yet to play a game this season due to injuries. Not too far from where you'd expect him although you'd sure expect him to be in AA by next year if he's really a prospect.

Round 3- #77 overall Blake Wood- P (77)- 23 year old pitcher in AA is 2-3 with a 6.31 ERA this year. Last year he went 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA splitting time between A and AA. Struck out 139 in 144 innings and only walked 47.

Round 4- #107 overall Derrick Robinson OF (107)- 21 year old outfielder looks like he might as well be named Joey Gathright or Coco Crisp. Currently hitting .230 in A ball with 28 steals in 46 games...but only 6 extra base hits (all doubles) all year. Last year hit .245 with 62 stoles bases and 8 triples.

From the looks of it, we may have a couple of prospects, but no one that jumps out at you as maybe helping this year unless Hochevar figures something out fast. So the draft did nothing really to shape this team other than factoring in to our hole in the #5 spot of the rotation, next I though I'd look at what really excited me, Dayton's first year of trades:

JP Howell for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez- I was all over this deal at the time and quickly became a Gathright homer. However, looking in the rear view mirror...it looks like Dayton got worked over by the Devil Rays. Gathright spent two years bouncing between KC and Omaha before being released this past winter. While I'd still argue that the Royals would be a better team if they'd kept Gathright and Ramon Ramirez instead of trading for Coco (who is, essentially, the same player as Gathright with a little more pop)...the facts say his time in KC was a failure. He was signed by the Cubs and just recently traded to the Orioles (after hitting .214). Cortez played all of 8 games in a Royals uniform before being released a little over one year after the trade. He's now in AA with the White Sox. Howell on the other hand has turned into a fantastic reliever appearing in 64 games last year with a 2.22 ERA. This year he's been just as good and looks like he may get a shot at the Rays closer job...and he's still only 26. That's about as close to an F on a trade as you can get, but I did have a mancrush on Jumpin Joey Gathright...so we'll give it a D.

Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger- This one probably doesn't amount to much, but I liked Gotay. He spent 2007 with the Mets hitting .295 in 98 games with the Mets. Then he was claimed off waivers by the Braves and hit .235 in 88 games with the Braves mostly as a backup/pinch hitter. He's hitting .281 in AAA this year and as a 26 year old utility infielder I'd guess he'll get another shot. Now, it turns out, a 26 year old utility infielder is exactly what we got for him...but we traded him before the 2007 season. Since then Keppinger's started 192 games at 6 different positions with the Reds and Astros. He's becoming the Spork...anyways, like I said, this trade probably doesn't matter much other than it makes no sense why we ever made this trade. If Dayton really liked Kepp so much, why trade him so soon? If he didn't why trade the same player (only 3 years younger) for him?

Mike MacDougal for Tyler Lumsden and Daniel Cortes- Here's the trade where we really pulled one over on the Sox right? We all knew MacDougal couldn't hold it together and we got two of their best pitching prospects. Only, once again...this trade probably doesn't really matter much...at least not yet. Mike was money the rest of 2006 for the Sox, terrible in 2007, only appeared in 16 games in 2008 and then exploded this year before being released. He's been picked up by the Nationals, and may resurrect his career but overall the White Sox got slightly less than one great year from MacDougal and slightly more than one terrible year from him. What did the Royals get? Well, Lumsden is now a reliever for the Astros AAA club,we traded him this winter for outfielder Jordan Parraz (more on him in the year three evaluation). Cortes is still just 22, right now he's 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA, last year he was 10-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 109 Ks in 116 innings. He's still one of our best pitching prospects. How do you call that one? Hard to say either team won until we see what happens with Cortes.

Elmer Dessens for Cash, Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel- We may have found a winner. Essentially, the Royals got two prospects for agreeing to eat Perez's contract I think. In return, Perez ate everything in sight. So maybe that was part of the deal but I cursed his fat Latino butt many a time at the K. Despite is 10-15 record, his 5.6 ERA and his devastating effect on the Royals food budget, this trade could still work out well for the Royals. Dessens has yet to post an ERA under 6 since 2006, while the two prospects received for him are still in the Royals system. Johnson (turning 24 this month) is in AA with Pimentel (also 24 and a 2008 Futures Game participant) who is recovering from an elbow injury. Considering how terrible Dessens was, and that the Royals still have 2 24 year old pitchers from the deal, I'd call this a win.

Tony Graffanino for Jorge De La Rosa- Pretty much irrelevant. Graffanino has put together a few more years as a average backup infielder, De La Rosa put together a year and half's worth of Odalis Perez like years before the Royals shipped him off to the Rockies for what I believe ended up being a trade for Ramon Ramirez. In this way, the trade becomes significant and the Royals I would say won this trade, because the possibility of De La Rosa's talent landed them a quality reliever which is more than Graff was worth.

Matt Stairs for Jose Diaz- Stairs went has continued his career as a journeyman power hitter with the Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays and Phillies. The Rangers in fact traded him later that same season. In other words, he was much more successful than Diaz who pitched 4 games with the Royals (allowing 8 runs in 6.2 innings) and was released.

Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann- Why could we never figure Jeremy Affeldt out? He's become a journeyman reliever (3.51 ERA in 75 games for Rockies in 2007, 3.33 in 74 games for Reds in 2008, 1.93 in 27 games so far for Giants in 2009) which is more than you can say for anyone else involved in this trade. Dohmann put up a 7.99 ERA in 21 appearances before being released while Bautista and Shealy appear to be the AAAA players. Both sit in AAA right waiting for one more chance.

Cash for Jason LaRue- This started out as one of those player to be names later trades but eventually Larue proved to be so woefully ineffective that the Reds accepted cash...how much? I'd speculate very little. However, the enjoyment I received bellowing his nickname (Jason LaBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO) after every meager at bat was priceless.

Donnie Murphy for Cash- I wonder if this is the money we used to buy Larue?

Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister- Here's a winner! Burgos has been out of the majors since 2007 and per Milb.com is currently out of the minors as well. Meanwhile, Bannister is taking us on a roller coaster ride from fantastic to terrible and back again. Regardless, this is clearly the gem of Dayton Moore's first year as GM.

Andrew Sisco for Ross Gload- As much as I hate to admit it this trade was also a winner. While I got tired of watching Hillman run Ross Gload out there way too often, he's still been much more successful than Sisco who was so terrible in 2007 he was banished after 21 games and has yet to return to the majors.

Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger- So, Russ answers our question from earlier. Keppinger (essentially Gotay)was traded for a 22 year old infielder who never made it out of A ball and is now out of baseball.

Erik Cordier for TPJ- So far, Dayton has lucked out on this one. We all know what TPJ is, a decent fielding SS that the Royals believe can become an adequate hitter. With Aviles' injury problems it seems Pena will get every chance to prove them wrong again. Cordier had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and is now a 22 year old pitching prospect with a sub 3 ERA in A ball. At this point the Royals at least got a (arguable) major leaguer, but I'm afraid this one could turn into a very bad trade...we'll see.

Maxim St Pierre for Ben Hendrickson- Irrelevant...but Maxim St Pierre is one awesome name!

So by my count, the final record for Dayton Moore in year one looks like this:
Win- 2
Loss- 4
Irrelevant- 4
TBD- 2

What's disturbing to me isn't so much that he lost more often than he won (because even that is debatable) it's this: How many players that Dayton Moore traded for are helping the Royals in 2009? Only Bannister and Pena are on the active roster and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who'd tell you that Tony Pena Jr is any help at all. So out of all of the trades listed above, the only benefit the Royals have experience in 2-3 years is the services of their #4 (fine, you can call him a #3) starter. Now, how many players that the Royals traded away are helping someone else? JP Howell, for one, is a fantastic reliever for the Rays. Same could be said for Affeldt and the Giants. Keppinger is pseudo WIllie Bloomquist, Gathright will probably be for the Orioles what TPJ is for us, light hitting insurance against injury. My point isn't so much that Dayton threw away the future of the club, only that we certainly didn't improve ourselves through those first 12 months worth of trades...and the idea that we were improving was at least part of the reason we all trusted Dayton so much.

Finally, we come the signings from the first year
Gil Meche- 5 years $55 Million- I love this deal, I hope these recent back problems don't persist or we may be eating 40% with a pitcher who isn't worth a damn...but for the first half of this deal it's been a great signing.

Joakim Soria- Rule 5 Draft- Best move made in the entire Dayton Moore era much less year 1. In fact, maybe the best move in all of baseball that year...that is if The Mexicutioner's arm really is healed.

John Bale- 2 years $4million- Bale has pitched in 43 games over 3 years with an era in the mid 4s. Hard to fault Dayton for the injury problems. Then again, even when he's been healthy he's been mediocre. This year he's been terrible and I'd say we're due for another surgery soon.

Todd Wellemeyer, David Riske and Octavio Dotel were all signed to one year deals and all long gone now. Their signings and performance really add nothing to the discussion on Dayton Moore's first year(although Dotel's name will come up in year 2 discussions when Dayton turned him in to Kyle Davies).

Now I know at this point I've probably lost some of you, it may even seem like I'm trying to cast Dayton in a bad light...I'm not. I fully recognize that we went from 54 wins in 05 to 62 in 06, 69 in 07, and 75 in 08...that's improvement. My question is, how much of that is because of the fact that our payroll has ballooned from $47 million to $70 million? And that's what I'm trying to find out with this analysis. My grade for year one? At the time I would have given Dayton an A-, almost everything he did I was in love with. Now, with hindsight on my side I would have to give him a C+ because he made some fantastic moves (Bannister trade, Soria pick) he made some duds (Howell and Affeldt trades) and we've got several things riding on the future of a few prospects, but overall I'd say it was slightly above average...certainly not the Godsend we thought at the time.

Dezmon Briscoe

What a stud! 15 TDs, over 1400 yards, 2 different 200 yard games? He doesn't get near the hype he deserves. Kansas fans had better enjoy him, because he's only got one year left before he's a first round draft pick.

I haven't posted on here forever, but I have 9 prognostications for 2009 I'd like to make while I'm here:

1. Bill Snyder's return will be less successful than Brett Favre's.
2. Oklahoma will win the National Title (but Texas and USC have fantastic arguments).
3. Peyton Manning leads the Colts to a Super Bowl victory over Carolina.
4. Herm Edwards returns for the start of the 2009 season.
5. The Royals win more than 81 games.
6. Missouri and Kansas both win at least 24 games and make the Sweet 16.
7. Brodie Croyle will never win a regular season game as a starter in the NFL.
8. The Chiefs will not draft a quarterback in the first round.
9. Alex Gordon will lead the Royals in extra base hits.

Don't get too excited

Just as I've proven that a random post once a month doesn't mean I'm back for good, one drive does not make a football team. Yeah, I got excited by the Chiefs first drive of the 2008 preseason as well...yeah, for a minutes I thought maybe Brodie could be a legitimate NFL QB...I also felt like maybe Will Franklin could be a compliment to D-Bowe and Tony G... Those things being said, it was one drive in a game that doesn't count. Maybe I use all of my senseless optimism on the Royals, but I'm not ready to "Believe!" just quite yet. I will however postpone my prediction on the Chiefs record this year (although I'd pretty much settled on 4-12 again). If Brodie can play like he did last night, and Franklin can be a viable #2, and the line can come together...we might be an 8-8 team....that's why Carl(and Herm) must go. On the other hand, if you want senseless optimism about the Chiefs, you can always find it here.

In other news...

- Brett Favre is a Jet! Fantastic news for my Fantasy team, even better news for the J-E-T-S...I'm still astonished that Carl didn't make this move. The Chiefs would have instantly been a Wild Card contender, and sell outs would be guaranteed.

- Mike Aviles is our shortstop of the future? I know a lot of people think he makes a better second baseman, but from what I've seen it's a lot easier to find a quality second baseman. I like Aviles at short, and as a dark horse for Rookie of the Year.

- Ron Prince gets a 5 year extension!?!? Folks in Manhatten vehemently deny that Mangino and Pinkel bankrolled this extension. In all seriousness, first they lock up Martin and then Prince? Manhappy is going to need a lot of hard alcohol to stay that way.

Maybe I'm just not cut out for blogging

After all, I sure don't seem to have the time for it...or the stomach...or according to several of my readers, the "talent". But who needs talents? Tony Pena? Nope, but at least he doesn't start everyday anymore...Brodie Croyle? What for? He's already the starting quarterback for what's soon to be the laughingstock of the NFL.

Yeah, I guess you could say I'm a little disenchanted with the local "talent" on the professional sports scene...thank goodness it's almost college football season, there's no shortage of talent there.

I'm looking smarter and smarter

On June 23rd, I thought we could win 12(maybe 15) of our last 20 before the break and get back into this thing. Some people laughed, others called me a homer...but we're 5-2 since then. What do the naysayers have to say now? Well, they're still naysayers...they'll tell you we're still 9.5 back of the White Sux (who've been red hot, winning 15 of 20). Or that both the Tigers and Twinkies have won eight of their last ten, so we haven't made up any ground on them either. They'll tell you this is a nice little hot streak, but our next cold streak is right around the corner. You know what the Kool Aid Drinker thinks? It doesn't matter what the White Sux, Twins, and Tigers are doing right now...the Royals control their own destiny...and not in that goofy "there are 80 games left" kind of way, but in a much less goofy "we play the Sux 15 more times, the Twins 9 more times, the Tigers 12 more times" kind of way. What does that mean? All the Royals need to do is keep fighting...get to .500 by the end of July (doable)...get to 5 games over by the end of August (doable)...Head into September with a fighter's chance and then we'll play whoever is ahead of us...there will be no way we can all be hot at the same time because we'll be playing each other. In other words, stop looking for the cloud in the silver lining, keep winning and we'll take care of those teams above us when we play them.

We're out of the cellar!!!

Remember a couple of days ago when I talked about what a great opportunity the next 20 games were? Well, the Royals are 3-0 since then, out of the cellar and only 7 games out of first. Now we get the hated Cardinals with rumors that Poo Holes may be back for the weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if they're rushing him and he's completely ineffective...especially against Meche, Bannister and Davies. I can't stress enough how important it is that the Royals keep this momentum until the All Star break. With 17 games left, we need 12-5 to get back to .500...that's doable.

Are the Royals out of it?

No they aren't! I know we've got a nice little hot streak going, but it has a chance to turn into a nice LONG hot streak. We have 20 games left before the All Star break and 13 of them are against what I consider to be teams that are no better than our Royals (Rockies, Orioles, Mariners, and Cards w/o Pujols). The other 7 are against the D-Rays and ChiSox, two teams that have played over their heads so far this year. Win 12 of those (very doable) and we're still in this thing, just a couple of games below .500 at the break. Win 15 of them and we're back to .500 and Mr. Dayton Moore can start shopping. It all starts with the next 6 at home against the Rockies and Cards. We should win at least 4 of these...

I don't get to post here much any more

That's the curse of being a successful little league manager I guess...but I have to say it...BREAK OUT THE BROOMS! I hate St Louis...not just the Cardinals, not just their fans, but the whole stinkin city...If Budweiser does indeed sell out there will be absolutely zero redeeming qualities about that place. If the Cardinals get swept at home by the Royals it will only add to what has thus far been the greatest sports year of my life, let's recap:

Kansas Jayhawk BCS victory
Kansas Jayhawk basketball National Championship
Boston Celtics NBA Finals with "The Truth" Paul Pierce winning MVP

Add a Royals sweep of the Cards...wow...what a year 2008 has been...and we're only halfway done.

Yeah, I'm still here

and so are the Royals...but they really need to win the next two. Do that and they're 6.5 out with a trip to Yankees stadium next...remember, we still play the first place White Sox 17 more times this year...this is not over.

One other quick question...who is the Royals All Star this year...I'm sure you're initial reaction was "Greinke!"...but not so fast...it's not wrapped up by any means...

Zack Greinke- 5-3, 3.56, 56 Ks, 1 complete game
Brian Bannnister- 5-6, 4.60, 45 Ks, 1 complete game
Joakim Soria- 12 saves, 1.23 ERA, 26 Ks in 23.1 innings
Jose Guillen- 19 doubles, 7 HR, 38 RBI
Alex Gordon- 15 doubles, 5 HR, 26 RBI, .354 OBP

I think any of those guys could make it, but almost assuredly only one of them. Right now I'd rank Soria as the favorite, followed by Greinke and Guillen...with Gordon and Bannister as long shots that need to get ridiculously hot. Wouldn't it be nice if some one would get ridiculously hot?

Took the boy to the game last night

The good will come at the end, first the not so good in a 5-3 loss...

Brian Bannister looked very pedestrian, and that's being kind. Sure, he was one pitch away from a pretty decent outing, but he also escaped a few jams. I'm afraid the Bannister we're seeing now is closer to the real him than the one we saw to start the season. Let's hope I'm wrong once again.

Mark Teahan was terrible. He misjudged at least one fly ball that turned into a double. He made a Busch League error letting a single roll under his glove and he looked terrible in two strikeouts late in the game. One of those came with the bases loaded and he was completely over matched. I'm a big fan of TeaBag but last night was far from his finest hour.

Jumpin Jivin Joey didn't look much better. His speed is not of much use if he's not getting on base and using it. Also, the ball he missed in center was an exceptionally difficult play, but the kind of play that a guy with his speed should be able to make.

The good? Miguel Oliva absolutely raked a couple of balls, as did Awesome Alex and Badass Billy. It was nice to see some hard hit balls by the Royals.

But not near as nice as catching* a foul ball for the boy. We were sitting on the first base side about halfway between the bag and Tea Bag when Garrett Anderson absolutely smoked one right at us. Thankfully the twelve year old in front of us brought a catcher's mitt instead of a real glove.he got just enough of it to knock it down and I snagged it off one bounce. Handing it to my six year old was easily the highlight of the night and he didn't stop beaming...he still was when he woke up with it in his clutch this morning.

Quote of the night? One the way home he says: "Dad, it's kind of odd. I feel excited and sad at the same time. Excited because I got a ball, but sad because my team lost."

here's hoping before he's my age the Royals can stop making that such a common occurance.