Dayton doesn't really believe in all that "patience is a virtue" stuff now does he? As everyone in Kansas City knows by now, Moore again made the early splash in the offseason by trading The Melkman for Jonathan Sanchez. I thought I should chime in with my thoughts, since I'm sure Steve will chime in on the Chiefs meltdown for me any time now.
I love the trade...absolutely love it. No, I'm not reviving the Kool Aid Report (not until March at least) and I'm not about to start predicting a Cy Young for Sanchez or a pennant for the Royals in 2012 (unless we sign a #1 starter). Instead, I'll be a little more realistic, here are three reasons I love the trade:
1. Buy low, sell high. It's a principle the Royals have to live by with their economic status and Dayton played it perfect on The Melkman. I would have never guessed that the Royals could pull a #3 starter for one year of Melky, and Dayton convinced the Giants to throw in a 24 year old AA pitcher too.
2. Time for the Painkiller. No matter how good Melky was last year, we all wanted to see what Lorenzo Cain could do in Kansas City. I don't expect him to be as good as Melky was last year, but I don't think Melky will be that good this year either...and Cain should be a huge upgrade defensively, which should help Sanchez and the rest of the Royals pitchers.
3. Oswalt anyone? I know there are some who think the Royals may be a player for CJ Wilson, and others who say they may go after Carlos Zambrano...but Oswalt is the one I want. This trade makes the team better, which should help to attract the free agent #1 GMDM decides he wants.
Now...if that happens? Well...what do you think?
Cain CF
Gordon LF
Butler DH
Hosmer 1B
Frenchy RF
Moose 3B
Sal C
Gio 2B
Escobar SS
Free Agent #1
Sanchez
Hoch
Duffy
Paulino
Showing posts with label Kansas City Royals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas City Royals. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
The coolest #HosmerFact yet?
Royals fans, prepare to have your minds blown courtesy of Baseball Reference’s Play Index:
Since 1919 there have been 6 rookies aged 21 or under to hit at least 18 HR, drive in 75 runs, and bat .290. You know who the most recent was, but for dramatic effect…
1936- Joe DiMaggio
1939- Ted Williams
1956- Frank Robinson
1958- Orlando Cepeda
2001- Albert Pujols
2011- Eric Hosmer
Before the saber metrics crowd closes the window…Yes, those are arbitrary data points…Yes, those are antiquated statistics…Yes, the other 5 players had significantly better seasons than Hosmer. Still, say it with me: DiMaggio, Williams, Robinson, Cepeda, Pujols, Hosmer. Think it’s completely meaningless? Find me a season comparison that puts Bob Hamelin in this group (not a lot of HOFers were 26 during their rookie season).
I will agree that the numbers above don’t quite fit the purpose of the article, which is to find the greatest comparison to Hosmer’s rookie year. For those, I gave into a few of the new age (more accurate) statistics. I replaced HRs with OPS+ (115 or higher), I replaced RBI with SLG % (.450 or higher) and I replaced batting average with qualifying for the batting title. We’re still looking for 21 (or younger) year old rookies here. The new results show 12 comparables…and one near perfect match. Before I get to the near perfect match, the rest:
- 10 of the 12 comps are HOF eligible, 7 of them are in the HOF
- The two that aren’t eligible yet are Albert Pujols and Jason Heyward
- 5 of the 12 were 20, while 7 of them were 21
Of those seven 21 year-olds, 1 of them was also a 1st baseman. This players OBP% was .001 below Hosmer’s, his SLG% was .004 above Hosmer’s and his OPS+ was 5 points higher. Not surprisingly he’s also the #1 match for Hosmer on Baseball Reference’s most similar players through age 21. His name? Eddie Murray.
Now if you’re my age you may only remember Murray as a switch-hitter with an awesome fro and an even more awesome mustache. The fact is, from 1981-1984 Murray was one of the best hitters in the American League, if not all of baseball. Incredibly, Murray put up an OPS+ of 156 in all four of those seasons, and deservedly finished in the top 5 of the MVP vote each year as well. He won a Gold Glove in three of the four seasons and led the Orioles to a World Championship in 1983.
Even Murray isn’t a perfect comp because he’s a switch hitter, he came into the league on a really good Orioles team, and Hosmer could never grow a fro that awesome. Even if he was a perfect comp, that wouldn’t mean Hosmer was going to follow Murray’s career arc (the best comp for Angel Berroa at age 23 was Ernie Banks). Sure, there are a lot of things that could go wrong between .290/18/75 at age 21 and the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, DiMaggio-Williams-Robinson-Cepeda-Pujols-Hosmer.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
It's Only September
September has turned into the Matt Cassell of months, what with all the pundits so quick to make excuses for his results. The Bills and Lions at 2-0? It's only September, there's still a long ways to go. The Royals absolutely crushing the ball while winning 9 of their last 11? It's only September, everyone else is mailing it in. The NBA lockout forcing the cancellation of preseason games? It's only September, no one will notice if we miss the first couple of months of the season. I'm sick of it and in terms of KC sports, I don't buy it.
The Chiefs are terrible, maybe historically bad. Back to back annihilations prove that...September or not. Their two best players are out for the year. Their coach and GM (allegedly) hate each other. This has all the markings of the worst Chiefs team in my lifetime. Are the Chiefs bad enough to #SuckforLuck? We'll have to wait on that one (at least until my post next week) but September has shown us enough.
The Royals youth movement is for real, and this team is a legitimate top of the rotation starter away from competing next year. Eric Hosmer's OPS (1.085 in September) is not meaningless. Mike Moustakas is learning to hit at this level (.914 OPS in September), regardless of the month. Sure, you can point to Hiram (Kyle) Davies...but that isn't the same. Davies had long established his sucktitude before his September heroics.
Does this September point to a larger trend? Are the Royals getting ready to surpass the Chiefs in terms of success (and in turn, support)? Over the last five years, even including their gift of a playoff appearance last year, the Chiefs winning % is .303 (20-46). They'd need to win 5 games this year to top that. The Royals meanwhile are poised to post their 2nd highest winning % (.439 currently) in the last 8 years. In case you'd like to argue that a bad baseball team will always win a higher % than a bad football team (generally true), let's go back to September:
Royals- 5.9 runs per game
Chiefs- 5.0 points per game
The Chiefs are terrible, maybe historically bad. Back to back annihilations prove that...September or not. Their two best players are out for the year. Their coach and GM (allegedly) hate each other. This has all the markings of the worst Chiefs team in my lifetime. Are the Chiefs bad enough to #SuckforLuck? We'll have to wait on that one (at least until my post next week) but September has shown us enough.
The Royals youth movement is for real, and this team is a legitimate top of the rotation starter away from competing next year. Eric Hosmer's OPS (1.085 in September) is not meaningless. Mike Moustakas is learning to hit at this level (.914 OPS in September), regardless of the month. Sure, you can point to Hiram (Kyle) Davies...but that isn't the same. Davies had long established his sucktitude before his September heroics.
Does this September point to a larger trend? Are the Royals getting ready to surpass the Chiefs in terms of success (and in turn, support)? Over the last five years, even including their gift of a playoff appearance last year, the Chiefs winning % is .303 (20-46). They'd need to win 5 games this year to top that. The Royals meanwhile are poised to post their 2nd highest winning % (.439 currently) in the last 8 years. In case you'd like to argue that a bad baseball team will always win a higher % than a bad football team (generally true), let's go back to September:
Royals- 5.9 runs per game
Chiefs- 5.0 points per game
Monday, June 8, 2009
Dayton, year 2
As the abomination of a season continues for the Royals, I take a look at year two's worth of choices in the Dayton Moore regime. While Moore's first year seemed to be filled with a trade every other week the second is more defined by his free agents and their (lack of) success. First, starting where I did last year, a look at the first 4 picks of the first draft that Dayton actually takes credit for:
Round 1- #2 overall- Mike Moustakas- After a terrible start to last year, Moustakas really turned it on and ended up leading his league in home runs with 22. This year he's hitting .263 with 7 home runs and 35 RBI in 49 games. Everyone says that this guy, being a high school draftee, will take 3-4 years before he's ready for the bigs...well we're half way through year 2, shouldn't he at least be in AA?
Round 2-#66 overall- Sam Runion- 7.26 ERA in Low A ball...that's terrible even for a 20 year old. 20 Ks and 14 BB in 48 innings this year.
Round 3- #96 overall- Danny Duffy- Now this is what you expect out of a Dayton Moore draft pick. Dominating Low A ball for two years in a row now, 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA striking out almost a batter an inning...get this guy moving!
Round 4-#126 overall- Mitch Hodge- Disappeared from the baseball landscape after posting a 9.79 ERA in the Arizona rookie league last year. Maybe is only playing Rookie ball again? Regardless, not a good sign.
Trades
Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies- Fantastic start to year 2 for Dayton Moore right? Dotel injured himself almost immediately and Davies became...well...what has Kyle Davies become? According to Baseball-Reference the closest thing to Davies is...wait for it...Runelvys Hernandez! This is really the make or break year for Davies and so far he's 2-5 with a 5+ ERA. I'd say he's a legitimate #5 starter if he can learn to eat innings.
Danny Christensen for Roman Colon- Christensen is still struggling through AA with the Tigers while Colon has finally made it back to the Bigs with the Royals. Colon hasn't done enough to call this a win yet, pretty irrelevant really.
Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo- Last year I thought this was a terrible trade...last month I thought it was fantastic...now I really don't know what to think. Callaspo has proven several times in the past that his off field decision making leaves much to be desired. Now that he's playing full time I think we can say the same for his baseball instincts. He really isn't fast, he has little power...but he can put the bat on the ball...that's not disputable. Buckner is a 26 year old pitcher with a career 4.86 ERA who has just been given a chance as a starter for the Diamondbacks.
Justin Huber for player to be named later- Anything we got for this Aussie was worth it.
Jorge De La Rosa and cash for Ramon Ramirez- Officially the Royals traded a player to be named later for Ram Ram and then weeks later traded De La Rosa for a player to be names later. Why? I have no idea, but no matter how you slice it, this was probably Dayton's best trade of year 2. Ram Ram was dominant in 2008 and then the Royals turned him into Coco Crisp, DeLa Rosa has been exactly what we thought he was: an enigma. 10-8 in 2008 with a 4.92, 0-6 in 2009 with a 5.43 ERA...not terrible, but not near as good as Ramirez was.
Henry Arias for Brad Salmon- Arias is a 24 year old pitcher in High A ball with an ERA around 7, Salmon's almost 30 and no longer still in the minors...but not with the Royals...in other words, irrelevant.
While year two was much less active, it was also much more productive. Looks to me like 2 wins, no real losses, one trade that's TBD (Callaspo/Buckner) and three that mean nothing at all. That brings Dayton's record through two year's to 4-4-10...pretty inconclusive. However, year two's class of free agent signings sheds a little (or a lot) of light on the Royals problems.
Yasuhiko Yabuta 2 Yrs $5 million- Yabuta's early season struggles were at least a part of the Royals' collapse last season. This year he gets passed over by the likes of Roman Colon when the Royals need a quick fix in the bullpen. Terrible signing.
Jose Guillen 3 yrs $36 million- Last year Guillen hit .264 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI...this year he's on pace for a much worse season. That's not to mention his terrible defense, his clubhouse outbursts, or his complete lack of speed on the base paths. Jose Guillen is a player that took steroids to become a slightly above average player and without them he's just very very average. This signing wasn't terrible, but it certainly isn't good.
Ron Mahay 2 yrs- Mahay made $4 million last year and he was definitely worth it. One thing Dayton Moore has been able to do is find relievers in bunches. Hopefully Mahay is one that he can trade this summer...and hopefully it'll be more successful than the Affeldt/Howell trades of year 1.
Miguel Olivo 1 yr $2 million- I never understood why we were spending money on a backup catcher when we already had one. Olivo has a great arm but that's about the only thing he offers that Buck doesn't. This move doesn't kill us...by itself.
Brett Tomko 1 yr $3 million- Tomko was so terrible the Royals released him on June 21 of last year, and we know how hard it is for the Royals to give up on someone they've invested in.
Brayan Pena waivers- I think Pena was a really good signing...if they hadn't just spent 2 million on Olivo.
Anyways, you're looking at about $25 million (or 40% of our 2008 payroll) for this group of players. Once again, yes we improved, but did we improve enough to justify the money we spent? Doesn't seem so to me. In year two I see further example that David Glass is making more of a commitment to make this team better while Dayton Moore may well be squandering that opportunity with poor decision making.
Round 1- #2 overall- Mike Moustakas- After a terrible start to last year, Moustakas really turned it on and ended up leading his league in home runs with 22. This year he's hitting .263 with 7 home runs and 35 RBI in 49 games. Everyone says that this guy, being a high school draftee, will take 3-4 years before he's ready for the bigs...well we're half way through year 2, shouldn't he at least be in AA?
Round 2-#66 overall- Sam Runion- 7.26 ERA in Low A ball...that's terrible even for a 20 year old. 20 Ks and 14 BB in 48 innings this year.
Round 3- #96 overall- Danny Duffy- Now this is what you expect out of a Dayton Moore draft pick. Dominating Low A ball for two years in a row now, 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA striking out almost a batter an inning...get this guy moving!
Round 4-#126 overall- Mitch Hodge- Disappeared from the baseball landscape after posting a 9.79 ERA in the Arizona rookie league last year. Maybe is only playing Rookie ball again? Regardless, not a good sign.
Trades
Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies- Fantastic start to year 2 for Dayton Moore right? Dotel injured himself almost immediately and Davies became...well...what has Kyle Davies become? According to Baseball-Reference the closest thing to Davies is...wait for it...Runelvys Hernandez! This is really the make or break year for Davies and so far he's 2-5 with a 5+ ERA. I'd say he's a legitimate #5 starter if he can learn to eat innings.
Danny Christensen for Roman Colon- Christensen is still struggling through AA with the Tigers while Colon has finally made it back to the Bigs with the Royals. Colon hasn't done enough to call this a win yet, pretty irrelevant really.
Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo- Last year I thought this was a terrible trade...last month I thought it was fantastic...now I really don't know what to think. Callaspo has proven several times in the past that his off field decision making leaves much to be desired. Now that he's playing full time I think we can say the same for his baseball instincts. He really isn't fast, he has little power...but he can put the bat on the ball...that's not disputable. Buckner is a 26 year old pitcher with a career 4.86 ERA who has just been given a chance as a starter for the Diamondbacks.
Justin Huber for player to be named later- Anything we got for this Aussie was worth it.
Jorge De La Rosa and cash for Ramon Ramirez- Officially the Royals traded a player to be named later for Ram Ram and then weeks later traded De La Rosa for a player to be names later. Why? I have no idea, but no matter how you slice it, this was probably Dayton's best trade of year 2. Ram Ram was dominant in 2008 and then the Royals turned him into Coco Crisp, DeLa Rosa has been exactly what we thought he was: an enigma. 10-8 in 2008 with a 4.92, 0-6 in 2009 with a 5.43 ERA...not terrible, but not near as good as Ramirez was.
Henry Arias for Brad Salmon- Arias is a 24 year old pitcher in High A ball with an ERA around 7, Salmon's almost 30 and no longer still in the minors...but not with the Royals...in other words, irrelevant.
While year two was much less active, it was also much more productive. Looks to me like 2 wins, no real losses, one trade that's TBD (Callaspo/Buckner) and three that mean nothing at all. That brings Dayton's record through two year's to 4-4-10...pretty inconclusive. However, year two's class of free agent signings sheds a little (or a lot) of light on the Royals problems.
Yasuhiko Yabuta 2 Yrs $5 million- Yabuta's early season struggles were at least a part of the Royals' collapse last season. This year he gets passed over by the likes of Roman Colon when the Royals need a quick fix in the bullpen. Terrible signing.
Jose Guillen 3 yrs $36 million- Last year Guillen hit .264 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI...this year he's on pace for a much worse season. That's not to mention his terrible defense, his clubhouse outbursts, or his complete lack of speed on the base paths. Jose Guillen is a player that took steroids to become a slightly above average player and without them he's just very very average. This signing wasn't terrible, but it certainly isn't good.
Ron Mahay 2 yrs- Mahay made $4 million last year and he was definitely worth it. One thing Dayton Moore has been able to do is find relievers in bunches. Hopefully Mahay is one that he can trade this summer...and hopefully it'll be more successful than the Affeldt/Howell trades of year 1.
Miguel Olivo 1 yr $2 million- I never understood why we were spending money on a backup catcher when we already had one. Olivo has a great arm but that's about the only thing he offers that Buck doesn't. This move doesn't kill us...by itself.
Brett Tomko 1 yr $3 million- Tomko was so terrible the Royals released him on June 21 of last year, and we know how hard it is for the Royals to give up on someone they've invested in.
Brayan Pena waivers- I think Pena was a really good signing...if they hadn't just spent 2 million on Olivo.
Anyways, you're looking at about $25 million (or 40% of our 2008 payroll) for this group of players. Once again, yes we improved, but did we improve enough to justify the money we spent? Doesn't seem so to me. In year two I see further example that David Glass is making more of a commitment to make this team better while Dayton Moore may well be squandering that opportunity with poor decision making.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Return to Futility
The title of this blog may have to do with the current state of our hapless Royals but it could also reflect my first blog post in 5 months. I'll address the latter before the former at least partially because the former makes me sick to my stomach. It seems blogging isn't for me because I can't pretend like a bunch of people are reading what I'm writing and I feel a little silly talking to my friends in the same pompous self serving way that most writers speak to their readers. So, generally, when I have something to blog about I find someone to call, and rant for 15 minutes...I get my fix and better yet don't have to worry about misspelling Jorge De La Rosa and hearing about from some DB that scours the internet looking for blog errors.
Regardless, I love my Royals...with every inch of me. It started when I was just a kid, sitting in my Poppy's truck every summer night listening to the game and inhaling his secondhand cigar smoke.
The problem is, well, I love the Royals...and some times that is enough to drive a guy insane. So, once again I believed again...only when I believe it's different, I buy in 100%..and then it comes crashing down. Well, this time when it came crashing down it was different...I just don't get it.
Three years ago we put our faith in a man named Dayton...to deliver us from the past transgressions of Herk and Allard, Glass and Muser, and all the people who'd wronged this great franchise in the past. Almost immediately, he was able to persuade Glass to pen his pocketbook and when he did we opened our hearts. We trusted again...things were going to be different...we had Alex Gordon and Billy Butler coming and Zack was getting his head right and we were going to spend money and in just a couple of years we'd be a contender...and not a flash-in-the-pan-2003-where-did-that-come-from contender, but a real, talented, bona fide contender. First there was Meche, then signs of brilliance from Zack, the arrival of Billy, a power hitting outfielder, Soria became a star, a left handed bat...and 2009 arrived...people were calling us a sleeper...the Royals! And they weren't laughing! So why is this happening? Why do we suck again?
That brings me to why I'm back...a three part series on the history of Dayton Moore as a General Manager. To this point I've only completed part one, so I don't know how this ends...then again, I'm looking at the same Royals you are...so I kind of do.
YEAR 1 DRAFT
That's right, despite what Dayton says, I'm holding him accountable for the 2006 draft. There is no way you take over a team and then let someone else draft for you...not when a farm system is as depleted as ours was at the time. Maybe he didn't have full control, but I'm only looking at the first 4 rounds which I assume he had at least a hand in. If nothing else, it's his staff that's (allegedly) developed these players.
Round 1- 1st over all- Luke Hochevar. I won't spend too long on Hoch, because we all know what he is (or at least looks like to this point): The quintessential AAAA pitcher. He's lights out in Omaha and lit up in the Bigs. I'm not giving up on him by any means, but I think best case scenario we're looking at a 3-4 starter...Jeff Suppan if you will. And that's best case. It bears mentioning that Hochevar is the only player from the last three drafts to sniff the majors thus far. That's not an indictment of Dayton, but...
Round 2- #45 overall- Jason Taylor- 21 year old 3rd baseman played all of last year for Class A Burlington Bees. Hit .242 with 17 Hrs and 58 RBI, stole 40 bases and struck out 97 times in 127 games. Has yet to play a game this season due to injuries. Not too far from where you'd expect him although you'd sure expect him to be in AA by next year if he's really a prospect.
Round 3- #77 overall Blake Wood- P (77)- 23 year old pitcher in AA is 2-3 with a 6.31 ERA this year. Last year he went 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA splitting time between A and AA. Struck out 139 in 144 innings and only walked 47.
Round 4- #107 overall Derrick Robinson OF (107)- 21 year old outfielder looks like he might as well be named Joey Gathright or Coco Crisp. Currently hitting .230 in A ball with 28 steals in 46 games...but only 6 extra base hits (all doubles) all year. Last year hit .245 with 62 stoles bases and 8 triples.
From the looks of it, we may have a couple of prospects, but no one that jumps out at you as maybe helping this year unless Hochevar figures something out fast. So the draft did nothing really to shape this team other than factoring in to our hole in the #5 spot of the rotation, next I though I'd look at what really excited me, Dayton's first year of trades:
JP Howell for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez- I was all over this deal at the time and quickly became a Gathright homer. However, looking in the rear view mirror...it looks like Dayton got worked over by the Devil Rays. Gathright spent two years bouncing between KC and Omaha before being released this past winter. While I'd still argue that the Royals would be a better team if they'd kept Gathright and Ramon Ramirez instead of trading for Coco (who is, essentially, the same player as Gathright with a little more pop)...the facts say his time in KC was a failure. He was signed by the Cubs and just recently traded to the Orioles (after hitting .214). Cortez played all of 8 games in a Royals uniform before being released a little over one year after the trade. He's now in AA with the White Sox. Howell on the other hand has turned into a fantastic reliever appearing in 64 games last year with a 2.22 ERA. This year he's been just as good and looks like he may get a shot at the Rays closer job...and he's still only 26. That's about as close to an F on a trade as you can get, but I did have a mancrush on Jumpin Joey Gathright...so we'll give it a D.
Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger- This one probably doesn't amount to much, but I liked Gotay. He spent 2007 with the Mets hitting .295 in 98 games with the Mets. Then he was claimed off waivers by the Braves and hit .235 in 88 games with the Braves mostly as a backup/pinch hitter. He's hitting .281 in AAA this year and as a 26 year old utility infielder I'd guess he'll get another shot. Now, it turns out, a 26 year old utility infielder is exactly what we got for him...but we traded him before the 2007 season. Since then Keppinger's started 192 games at 6 different positions with the Reds and Astros. He's becoming the Spork...anyways, like I said, this trade probably doesn't matter much other than it makes no sense why we ever made this trade. If Dayton really liked Kepp so much, why trade him so soon? If he didn't why trade the same player (only 3 years younger) for him?
Mike MacDougal for Tyler Lumsden and Daniel Cortes- Here's the trade where we really pulled one over on the Sox right? We all knew MacDougal couldn't hold it together and we got two of their best pitching prospects. Only, once again...this trade probably doesn't really matter much...at least not yet. Mike was money the rest of 2006 for the Sox, terrible in 2007, only appeared in 16 games in 2008 and then exploded this year before being released. He's been picked up by the Nationals, and may resurrect his career but overall the White Sox got slightly less than one great year from MacDougal and slightly more than one terrible year from him. What did the Royals get? Well, Lumsden is now a reliever for the Astros AAA club,we traded him this winter for outfielder Jordan Parraz (more on him in the year three evaluation). Cortes is still just 22, right now he's 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA, last year he was 10-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 109 Ks in 116 innings. He's still one of our best pitching prospects. How do you call that one? Hard to say either team won until we see what happens with Cortes.
Elmer Dessens for Cash, Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel- We may have found a winner. Essentially, the Royals got two prospects for agreeing to eat Perez's contract I think. In return, Perez ate everything in sight. So maybe that was part of the deal but I cursed his fat Latino butt many a time at the K. Despite is 10-15 record, his 5.6 ERA and his devastating effect on the Royals food budget, this trade could still work out well for the Royals. Dessens has yet to post an ERA under 6 since 2006, while the two prospects received for him are still in the Royals system. Johnson (turning 24 this month) is in AA with Pimentel (also 24 and a 2008 Futures Game participant) who is recovering from an elbow injury. Considering how terrible Dessens was, and that the Royals still have 2 24 year old pitchers from the deal, I'd call this a win.
Tony Graffanino for Jorge De La Rosa- Pretty much irrelevant. Graffanino has put together a few more years as a average backup infielder, De La Rosa put together a year and half's worth of Odalis Perez like years before the Royals shipped him off to the Rockies for what I believe ended up being a trade for Ramon Ramirez. In this way, the trade becomes significant and the Royals I would say won this trade, because the possibility of De La Rosa's talent landed them a quality reliever which is more than Graff was worth.
Matt Stairs for Jose Diaz- Stairs went has continued his career as a journeyman power hitter with the Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays and Phillies. The Rangers in fact traded him later that same season. In other words, he was much more successful than Diaz who pitched 4 games with the Royals (allowing 8 runs in 6.2 innings) and was released.
Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann- Why could we never figure Jeremy Affeldt out? He's become a journeyman reliever (3.51 ERA in 75 games for Rockies in 2007, 3.33 in 74 games for Reds in 2008, 1.93 in 27 games so far for Giants in 2009) which is more than you can say for anyone else involved in this trade. Dohmann put up a 7.99 ERA in 21 appearances before being released while Bautista and Shealy appear to be the AAAA players. Both sit in AAA right waiting for one more chance.
Cash for Jason LaRue- This started out as one of those player to be names later trades but eventually Larue proved to be so woefully ineffective that the Reds accepted cash...how much? I'd speculate very little. However, the enjoyment I received bellowing his nickname (Jason LaBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO) after every meager at bat was priceless.
Donnie Murphy for Cash- I wonder if this is the money we used to buy Larue?
Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister- Here's a winner! Burgos has been out of the majors since 2007 and per Milb.com is currently out of the minors as well. Meanwhile, Bannister is taking us on a roller coaster ride from fantastic to terrible and back again. Regardless, this is clearly the gem of Dayton Moore's first year as GM.
Andrew Sisco for Ross Gload- As much as I hate to admit it this trade was also a winner. While I got tired of watching Hillman run Ross Gload out there way too often, he's still been much more successful than Sisco who was so terrible in 2007 he was banished after 21 games and has yet to return to the majors.
Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger- So, Russ answers our question from earlier. Keppinger (essentially Gotay)was traded for a 22 year old infielder who never made it out of A ball and is now out of baseball.
Erik Cordier for TPJ- So far, Dayton has lucked out on this one. We all know what TPJ is, a decent fielding SS that the Royals believe can become an adequate hitter. With Aviles' injury problems it seems Pena will get every chance to prove them wrong again. Cordier had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and is now a 22 year old pitching prospect with a sub 3 ERA in A ball. At this point the Royals at least got a (arguable) major leaguer, but I'm afraid this one could turn into a very bad trade...we'll see.
Maxim St Pierre for Ben Hendrickson- Irrelevant...but Maxim St Pierre is one awesome name!
So by my count, the final record for Dayton Moore in year one looks like this:
Win- 2
Loss- 4
Irrelevant- 4
TBD- 2
What's disturbing to me isn't so much that he lost more often than he won (because even that is debatable) it's this: How many players that Dayton Moore traded for are helping the Royals in 2009? Only Bannister and Pena are on the active roster and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who'd tell you that Tony Pena Jr is any help at all. So out of all of the trades listed above, the only benefit the Royals have experience in 2-3 years is the services of their #4 (fine, you can call him a #3) starter. Now, how many players that the Royals traded away are helping someone else? JP Howell, for one, is a fantastic reliever for the Rays. Same could be said for Affeldt and the Giants. Keppinger is pseudo WIllie Bloomquist, Gathright will probably be for the Orioles what TPJ is for us, light hitting insurance against injury. My point isn't so much that Dayton threw away the future of the club, only that we certainly didn't improve ourselves through those first 12 months worth of trades...and the idea that we were improving was at least part of the reason we all trusted Dayton so much.
Finally, we come the signings from the first year
Gil Meche- 5 years $55 Million- I love this deal, I hope these recent back problems don't persist or we may be eating 40% with a pitcher who isn't worth a damn...but for the first half of this deal it's been a great signing.
Joakim Soria- Rule 5 Draft- Best move made in the entire Dayton Moore era much less year 1. In fact, maybe the best move in all of baseball that year...that is if The Mexicutioner's arm really is healed.
John Bale- 2 years $4million- Bale has pitched in 43 games over 3 years with an era in the mid 4s. Hard to fault Dayton for the injury problems. Then again, even when he's been healthy he's been mediocre. This year he's been terrible and I'd say we're due for another surgery soon.
Todd Wellemeyer, David Riske and Octavio Dotel were all signed to one year deals and all long gone now. Their signings and performance really add nothing to the discussion on Dayton Moore's first year(although Dotel's name will come up in year 2 discussions when Dayton turned him in to Kyle Davies).
Now I know at this point I've probably lost some of you, it may even seem like I'm trying to cast Dayton in a bad light...I'm not. I fully recognize that we went from 54 wins in 05 to 62 in 06, 69 in 07, and 75 in 08...that's improvement. My question is, how much of that is because of the fact that our payroll has ballooned from $47 million to $70 million? And that's what I'm trying to find out with this analysis. My grade for year one? At the time I would have given Dayton an A-, almost everything he did I was in love with. Now, with hindsight on my side I would have to give him a C+ because he made some fantastic moves (Bannister trade, Soria pick) he made some duds (Howell and Affeldt trades) and we've got several things riding on the future of a few prospects, but overall I'd say it was slightly above average...certainly not the Godsend we thought at the time.
Regardless, I love my Royals...with every inch of me. It started when I was just a kid, sitting in my Poppy's truck every summer night listening to the game and inhaling his secondhand cigar smoke.
The problem is, well, I love the Royals...and some times that is enough to drive a guy insane. So, once again I believed again...only when I believe it's different, I buy in 100%..and then it comes crashing down. Well, this time when it came crashing down it was different...I just don't get it.
Three years ago we put our faith in a man named Dayton...to deliver us from the past transgressions of Herk and Allard, Glass and Muser, and all the people who'd wronged this great franchise in the past. Almost immediately, he was able to persuade Glass to pen his pocketbook and when he did we opened our hearts. We trusted again...things were going to be different...we had Alex Gordon and Billy Butler coming and Zack was getting his head right and we were going to spend money and in just a couple of years we'd be a contender...and not a flash-in-the-pan-2003-where-did-that-come-from contender, but a real, talented, bona fide contender. First there was Meche, then signs of brilliance from Zack, the arrival of Billy, a power hitting outfielder, Soria became a star, a left handed bat...and 2009 arrived...people were calling us a sleeper...the Royals! And they weren't laughing! So why is this happening? Why do we suck again?
That brings me to why I'm back...a three part series on the history of Dayton Moore as a General Manager. To this point I've only completed part one, so I don't know how this ends...then again, I'm looking at the same Royals you are...so I kind of do.
YEAR 1 DRAFT
That's right, despite what Dayton says, I'm holding him accountable for the 2006 draft. There is no way you take over a team and then let someone else draft for you...not when a farm system is as depleted as ours was at the time. Maybe he didn't have full control, but I'm only looking at the first 4 rounds which I assume he had at least a hand in. If nothing else, it's his staff that's (allegedly) developed these players.
Round 1- 1st over all- Luke Hochevar. I won't spend too long on Hoch, because we all know what he is (or at least looks like to this point): The quintessential AAAA pitcher. He's lights out in Omaha and lit up in the Bigs. I'm not giving up on him by any means, but I think best case scenario we're looking at a 3-4 starter...Jeff Suppan if you will. And that's best case. It bears mentioning that Hochevar is the only player from the last three drafts to sniff the majors thus far. That's not an indictment of Dayton, but...
Round 2- #45 overall- Jason Taylor- 21 year old 3rd baseman played all of last year for Class A Burlington Bees. Hit .242 with 17 Hrs and 58 RBI, stole 40 bases and struck out 97 times in 127 games. Has yet to play a game this season due to injuries. Not too far from where you'd expect him although you'd sure expect him to be in AA by next year if he's really a prospect.
Round 3- #77 overall Blake Wood- P (77)- 23 year old pitcher in AA is 2-3 with a 6.31 ERA this year. Last year he went 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA splitting time between A and AA. Struck out 139 in 144 innings and only walked 47.
Round 4- #107 overall Derrick Robinson OF (107)- 21 year old outfielder looks like he might as well be named Joey Gathright or Coco Crisp. Currently hitting .230 in A ball with 28 steals in 46 games...but only 6 extra base hits (all doubles) all year. Last year hit .245 with 62 stoles bases and 8 triples.
From the looks of it, we may have a couple of prospects, but no one that jumps out at you as maybe helping this year unless Hochevar figures something out fast. So the draft did nothing really to shape this team other than factoring in to our hole in the #5 spot of the rotation, next I though I'd look at what really excited me, Dayton's first year of trades:
JP Howell for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez- I was all over this deal at the time and quickly became a Gathright homer. However, looking in the rear view mirror...it looks like Dayton got worked over by the Devil Rays. Gathright spent two years bouncing between KC and Omaha before being released this past winter. While I'd still argue that the Royals would be a better team if they'd kept Gathright and Ramon Ramirez instead of trading for Coco (who is, essentially, the same player as Gathright with a little more pop)...the facts say his time in KC was a failure. He was signed by the Cubs and just recently traded to the Orioles (after hitting .214). Cortez played all of 8 games in a Royals uniform before being released a little over one year after the trade. He's now in AA with the White Sox. Howell on the other hand has turned into a fantastic reliever appearing in 64 games last year with a 2.22 ERA. This year he's been just as good and looks like he may get a shot at the Rays closer job...and he's still only 26. That's about as close to an F on a trade as you can get, but I did have a mancrush on Jumpin Joey Gathright...so we'll give it a D.
Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger- This one probably doesn't amount to much, but I liked Gotay. He spent 2007 with the Mets hitting .295 in 98 games with the Mets. Then he was claimed off waivers by the Braves and hit .235 in 88 games with the Braves mostly as a backup/pinch hitter. He's hitting .281 in AAA this year and as a 26 year old utility infielder I'd guess he'll get another shot. Now, it turns out, a 26 year old utility infielder is exactly what we got for him...but we traded him before the 2007 season. Since then Keppinger's started 192 games at 6 different positions with the Reds and Astros. He's becoming the Spork...anyways, like I said, this trade probably doesn't matter much other than it makes no sense why we ever made this trade. If Dayton really liked Kepp so much, why trade him so soon? If he didn't why trade the same player (only 3 years younger) for him?
Mike MacDougal for Tyler Lumsden and Daniel Cortes- Here's the trade where we really pulled one over on the Sox right? We all knew MacDougal couldn't hold it together and we got two of their best pitching prospects. Only, once again...this trade probably doesn't really matter much...at least not yet. Mike was money the rest of 2006 for the Sox, terrible in 2007, only appeared in 16 games in 2008 and then exploded this year before being released. He's been picked up by the Nationals, and may resurrect his career but overall the White Sox got slightly less than one great year from MacDougal and slightly more than one terrible year from him. What did the Royals get? Well, Lumsden is now a reliever for the Astros AAA club,we traded him this winter for outfielder Jordan Parraz (more on him in the year three evaluation). Cortes is still just 22, right now he's 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA, last year he was 10-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 109 Ks in 116 innings. He's still one of our best pitching prospects. How do you call that one? Hard to say either team won until we see what happens with Cortes.
Elmer Dessens for Cash, Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel- We may have found a winner. Essentially, the Royals got two prospects for agreeing to eat Perez's contract I think. In return, Perez ate everything in sight. So maybe that was part of the deal but I cursed his fat Latino butt many a time at the K. Despite is 10-15 record, his 5.6 ERA and his devastating effect on the Royals food budget, this trade could still work out well for the Royals. Dessens has yet to post an ERA under 6 since 2006, while the two prospects received for him are still in the Royals system. Johnson (turning 24 this month) is in AA with Pimentel (also 24 and a 2008 Futures Game participant) who is recovering from an elbow injury. Considering how terrible Dessens was, and that the Royals still have 2 24 year old pitchers from the deal, I'd call this a win.
Tony Graffanino for Jorge De La Rosa- Pretty much irrelevant. Graffanino has put together a few more years as a average backup infielder, De La Rosa put together a year and half's worth of Odalis Perez like years before the Royals shipped him off to the Rockies for what I believe ended up being a trade for Ramon Ramirez. In this way, the trade becomes significant and the Royals I would say won this trade, because the possibility of De La Rosa's talent landed them a quality reliever which is more than Graff was worth.
Matt Stairs for Jose Diaz- Stairs went has continued his career as a journeyman power hitter with the Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays and Phillies. The Rangers in fact traded him later that same season. In other words, he was much more successful than Diaz who pitched 4 games with the Royals (allowing 8 runs in 6.2 innings) and was released.
Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann- Why could we never figure Jeremy Affeldt out? He's become a journeyman reliever (3.51 ERA in 75 games for Rockies in 2007, 3.33 in 74 games for Reds in 2008, 1.93 in 27 games so far for Giants in 2009) which is more than you can say for anyone else involved in this trade. Dohmann put up a 7.99 ERA in 21 appearances before being released while Bautista and Shealy appear to be the AAAA players. Both sit in AAA right waiting for one more chance.
Cash for Jason LaRue- This started out as one of those player to be names later trades but eventually Larue proved to be so woefully ineffective that the Reds accepted cash...how much? I'd speculate very little. However, the enjoyment I received bellowing his nickname (Jason LaBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO) after every meager at bat was priceless.
Donnie Murphy for Cash- I wonder if this is the money we used to buy Larue?
Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister- Here's a winner! Burgos has been out of the majors since 2007 and per Milb.com is currently out of the minors as well. Meanwhile, Bannister is taking us on a roller coaster ride from fantastic to terrible and back again. Regardless, this is clearly the gem of Dayton Moore's first year as GM.
Andrew Sisco for Ross Gload- As much as I hate to admit it this trade was also a winner. While I got tired of watching Hillman run Ross Gload out there way too often, he's still been much more successful than Sisco who was so terrible in 2007 he was banished after 21 games and has yet to return to the majors.
Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger- So, Russ answers our question from earlier. Keppinger (essentially Gotay)was traded for a 22 year old infielder who never made it out of A ball and is now out of baseball.
Erik Cordier for TPJ- So far, Dayton has lucked out on this one. We all know what TPJ is, a decent fielding SS that the Royals believe can become an adequate hitter. With Aviles' injury problems it seems Pena will get every chance to prove them wrong again. Cordier had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and is now a 22 year old pitching prospect with a sub 3 ERA in A ball. At this point the Royals at least got a (arguable) major leaguer, but I'm afraid this one could turn into a very bad trade...we'll see.
Maxim St Pierre for Ben Hendrickson- Irrelevant...but Maxim St Pierre is one awesome name!
So by my count, the final record for Dayton Moore in year one looks like this:
Win- 2
Loss- 4
Irrelevant- 4
TBD- 2
What's disturbing to me isn't so much that he lost more often than he won (because even that is debatable) it's this: How many players that Dayton Moore traded for are helping the Royals in 2009? Only Bannister and Pena are on the active roster and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who'd tell you that Tony Pena Jr is any help at all. So out of all of the trades listed above, the only benefit the Royals have experience in 2-3 years is the services of their #4 (fine, you can call him a #3) starter. Now, how many players that the Royals traded away are helping someone else? JP Howell, for one, is a fantastic reliever for the Rays. Same could be said for Affeldt and the Giants. Keppinger is pseudo WIllie Bloomquist, Gathright will probably be for the Orioles what TPJ is for us, light hitting insurance against injury. My point isn't so much that Dayton threw away the future of the club, only that we certainly didn't improve ourselves through those first 12 months worth of trades...and the idea that we were improving was at least part of the reason we all trusted Dayton so much.
Finally, we come the signings from the first year
Gil Meche- 5 years $55 Million- I love this deal, I hope these recent back problems don't persist or we may be eating 40% with a pitcher who isn't worth a damn...but for the first half of this deal it's been a great signing.
Joakim Soria- Rule 5 Draft- Best move made in the entire Dayton Moore era much less year 1. In fact, maybe the best move in all of baseball that year...that is if The Mexicutioner's arm really is healed.
John Bale- 2 years $4million- Bale has pitched in 43 games over 3 years with an era in the mid 4s. Hard to fault Dayton for the injury problems. Then again, even when he's been healthy he's been mediocre. This year he's been terrible and I'd say we're due for another surgery soon.
Todd Wellemeyer, David Riske and Octavio Dotel were all signed to one year deals and all long gone now. Their signings and performance really add nothing to the discussion on Dayton Moore's first year(although Dotel's name will come up in year 2 discussions when Dayton turned him in to Kyle Davies).
Now I know at this point I've probably lost some of you, it may even seem like I'm trying to cast Dayton in a bad light...I'm not. I fully recognize that we went from 54 wins in 05 to 62 in 06, 69 in 07, and 75 in 08...that's improvement. My question is, how much of that is because of the fact that our payroll has ballooned from $47 million to $70 million? And that's what I'm trying to find out with this analysis. My grade for year one? At the time I would have given Dayton an A-, almost everything he did I was in love with. Now, with hindsight on my side I would have to give him a C+ because he made some fantastic moves (Bannister trade, Soria pick) he made some duds (Howell and Affeldt trades) and we've got several things riding on the future of a few prospects, but overall I'd say it was slightly above average...certainly not the Godsend we thought at the time.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Arms Race no race at all?
This article about Brett Tomko scares me to death. In case you don't feel like clicking it(it might make you sick), here's the quotes that got me the most:
10.2 innings, 10.13 ERA, 21 hits, 15 runs(12 earned), 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
That is as terrible as you can be, Brett....atrocious in fact.
I was really concerned by this whole thing until I read the Star today. This article, while still justifying Tomko's terrible day gave me hope because of this quote from Trey:
“Nothing is solidified with those final two spots,” Hillman declared. “We’ve got too much time left.”
Granted, Tomko still probably has the inside track, but at least they haven't given to him. They have to make him have at least a couple of decent outings, right? I've heard a lot of people speculate that Tomko will make the team no matter what because of his approximately $3 million dollar contract. If that's fact, let's at least start him out in a long relief role and make him show something before we start him. Better to throw away $3 million dollars than 10 games in the standings, especially if you're the Royals.
So, if not Tomko, who? I've tried hard to find alternatives to John Bale as our token lefty, but there isn't one at this point. Maroth will probably have to start in AAA because of an injury scare and De La Rosa has been as wild and ineffective as anticipated. So, my new alternative is no lefty at all...really. I like Bale in the bullpen as a long relief guy...maybe even a swing starter...but I don't trust him in the rotation.
As of right now I like Luke Hochevar and Nomo to fill the 4 and 5 spots. I know everyone says that Nomo is too old, and Hochevar too inexperienced...but they're the most talented guys we have and that's what we have to go with. Yeah, it's similar to the Gathright argument, and it's my philosophy I guess. This team can't win by playing it safe...with guys like Brett Tomko, John Bale and Ross Gload...we need talent and potential and we have to take chances. I know Hochevar and Nomo are both considered big risks, but as of right now that's who I'd take.
Besides, the age isn't that big of a deal. Nomo won't turn 40 until August, a ton of pitchers have had reasonable (we're only asking him to be a #4) success after 40. Hochever, meanwhile, is almost a month older than Zack Greinke...no one thinks Greinke is too young. Here's hoping Hillman (and Dayton) show some guts and start with out 5 most talented pitchers in the rotation to start the year.
The line shows Tomko went 4 1/3 innings, giving up six runs (four earned) on eight hits and a walk.
"Great outing," Hillman said. "The line was bad, but with what he did, it was very good. He took the bullpen session right into the game."
Maybe if it's a young pitcher, or someone like Hideo Nomo who's coming back after a two year hiatus I could understand this thinking. But Tomko went 4-12 last year...with a 5.55 ERA...in the weak National League. Moral victories shouldn't be enough for an 11 year veteran who stunk so completely last season. But that wasn't all...His take on being the Royals' No. 4 starter at this point?
"If that's what they want, I'm down with it," Tomko said. "I felt like I threw the ball well today and I don't feel I've been horrible since I've been here. The Cubs game, yeah, here and there. Other than that, I feel like I'm progressing the way I need to."
He doesn't feel like he's been terrible? Tomko's had 3 starts, here are his stats:10.2 innings, 10.13 ERA, 21 hits, 15 runs(12 earned), 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
That is as terrible as you can be, Brett....atrocious in fact.
I was really concerned by this whole thing until I read the Star today. This article, while still justifying Tomko's terrible day gave me hope because of this quote from Trey:
“Nothing is solidified with those final two spots,” Hillman declared. “We’ve got too much time left.”
Granted, Tomko still probably has the inside track, but at least they haven't given to him. They have to make him have at least a couple of decent outings, right? I've heard a lot of people speculate that Tomko will make the team no matter what because of his approximately $3 million dollar contract. If that's fact, let's at least start him out in a long relief role and make him show something before we start him. Better to throw away $3 million dollars than 10 games in the standings, especially if you're the Royals.
So, if not Tomko, who? I've tried hard to find alternatives to John Bale as our token lefty, but there isn't one at this point. Maroth will probably have to start in AAA because of an injury scare and De La Rosa has been as wild and ineffective as anticipated. So, my new alternative is no lefty at all...really. I like Bale in the bullpen as a long relief guy...maybe even a swing starter...but I don't trust him in the rotation.
As of right now I like Luke Hochevar and Nomo to fill the 4 and 5 spots. I know everyone says that Nomo is too old, and Hochevar too inexperienced...but they're the most talented guys we have and that's what we have to go with. Yeah, it's similar to the Gathright argument, and it's my philosophy I guess. This team can't win by playing it safe...with guys like Brett Tomko, John Bale and Ross Gload...we need talent and potential and we have to take chances. I know Hochevar and Nomo are both considered big risks, but as of right now that's who I'd take.
Besides, the age isn't that big of a deal. Nomo won't turn 40 until August, a ton of pitchers have had reasonable (we're only asking him to be a #4) success after 40. Hochever, meanwhile, is almost a month older than Zack Greinke...no one thinks Greinke is too young. Here's hoping Hillman (and Dayton) show some guts and start with out 5 most talented pitchers in the rotation to start the year.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Maroth update
For those of you wondering (like me) what's up with Mike Maroth. This from the Royals mailbag:
I'm a big fan of Mike Maroth. I was saddened when the Tigers traded him to the Cardinals and he got released last October. Is there a good chance of him making the Royals' club?-- Luis C., Bristol, Tenn.
Maroth is a bit behind because of a stiff shoulder but, after pitching in a "B" game on Sunday, he's about ready for Cactus League action. He started out throwing softly on Sunday, but by the end of his outing his pitches were up around 85, 86 mph. That's just a couple of miles per hour shy of his normal speed. With Maroth, of course, everything is getting the pitches to work and hitting his spots as he did so well for years with the Tigers. The Royals already are impressed by his edgy determination and work ethic. Two other left-handers, John Bale and Jorge De La Rosa, are competing for the fifth slot in the rotation and Maroth has some catching up to do. He's agreed to start the season at Omaha if necessary and, with less than three weeks left in Spring Training, that's a possibility. Having a veteran like Maroth tuning up at Triple-A in case another starter is needed in a hurry would be a good option.
I'd have to agree it's looking like a long shot that Maroth breaks camp with the Royals, but the fact that he's agreed to start in AAA if needed is huge. He could be a great asset in May or June.
I'm a big fan of Mike Maroth. I was saddened when the Tigers traded him to the Cardinals and he got released last October. Is there a good chance of him making the Royals' club?-- Luis C., Bristol, Tenn.
Maroth is a bit behind because of a stiff shoulder but, after pitching in a "B" game on Sunday, he's about ready for Cactus League action. He started out throwing softly on Sunday, but by the end of his outing his pitches were up around 85, 86 mph. That's just a couple of miles per hour shy of his normal speed. With Maroth, of course, everything is getting the pitches to work and hitting his spots as he did so well for years with the Tigers. The Royals already are impressed by his edgy determination and work ethic. Two other left-handers, John Bale and Jorge De La Rosa, are competing for the fifth slot in the rotation and Maroth has some catching up to do. He's agreed to start the season at Omaha if necessary and, with less than three weeks left in Spring Training, that's a possibility. Having a veteran like Maroth tuning up at Triple-A in case another starter is needed in a hurry would be a good option.
I'd have to agree it's looking like a long shot that Maroth breaks camp with the Royals, but the fact that he's agreed to start in AAA if needed is huge. He could be a great asset in May or June.
Monday, March 10, 2008
The Case for Joey
First off, the Kool Aid Drinker would like to answer a couple of questions. It seems that everyone thinks that either A) Joey Gathright is on my fantasy baseball team B) He's my illegitimate half brother C) I spent my life's savings buying up all of his rookie cards or D) All of the above. When they find out that none of the above are true, the next obvious question is "Why in the world do you like him so much then? So, I thought I'd respond with the Top 5 reasons Joey Gathright should start in center for the Royals this season...
1. The "Joey Jumps Over a Car" bobblehead would be really awesome.
2. Potential
3. He had and OBP of .371 last year, best on the team
4. I hear he's bringing back the Brian McRae drag bunt
5. Otherwise, Ross "No need to" Gload is going to play 1st and bat 3rd
There are a lot more, but one major theory that I'd like to expand on. The Royals cannot afford power, as evidenced by the fact that we just "broke the bank" spending 12 million a year on a guy (Jose Guillen) that no one expects to hit more than 30 home runs in a year. Power has simply become too expensive, unless you develop it...which we may with Gordon and Butler. But the one thing we can still afford is speed, and that's what we should build this team on: Pitching, defense, and manufacturing runs. A lot of people say you can't win that way in the AL anymore, who's trying? Can we honestly try the same things the Yanks and Sox are with 1/3 the payroll and expect to compete? Absolutely not.
Even if you completely disagree with that theory, I'm not suggesting you give up power to play Gathright...Ross Gload would be the casualty. I like Gload, but as his nickname suggests, he's nothing special. He's a utility man...a pinch hitter...a defensive replacement...but an everyday first baseman batting 3rd? No way. Gload is an asset to the club, and I won't bad mouth him at all, but you can't build a good lineup with him as your 3 hitter. Can you say the same about Gathright at lead off? I don't know how you could. I know he has no pop...I know everyone hates how much he bunts...and he does dumb things sometimes...but he's inexperienced. Give him a full year in the lead off spot and watch how much better this offense is. Give him a full year in the outfield and watch how many times he makes web gems.
You see, Joey Gathright could be exciting. He could bunt his way on, steal second, move to third on a ground ball and score on a shallow fly ball. He can manufacture runs by himself. He can take away runs with his speed in the outfield. He's a raw talent with a ton of potential, which is exactly what this team is built around. It's the only reason for hope in Kansas City: potential. Let us hope Trey, at least for a while...start Joey Gathright.
1. The "Joey Jumps Over a Car" bobblehead would be really awesome.
2. Potential
3. He had and OBP of .371 last year, best on the team
4. I hear he's bringing back the Brian McRae drag bunt
5. Otherwise, Ross "No need to" Gload is going to play 1st and bat 3rd
There are a lot more, but one major theory that I'd like to expand on. The Royals cannot afford power, as evidenced by the fact that we just "broke the bank" spending 12 million a year on a guy (Jose Guillen) that no one expects to hit more than 30 home runs in a year. Power has simply become too expensive, unless you develop it...which we may with Gordon and Butler. But the one thing we can still afford is speed, and that's what we should build this team on: Pitching, defense, and manufacturing runs. A lot of people say you can't win that way in the AL anymore, who's trying? Can we honestly try the same things the Yanks and Sox are with 1/3 the payroll and expect to compete? Absolutely not.
Even if you completely disagree with that theory, I'm not suggesting you give up power to play Gathright...Ross Gload would be the casualty. I like Gload, but as his nickname suggests, he's nothing special. He's a utility man...a pinch hitter...a defensive replacement...but an everyday first baseman batting 3rd? No way. Gload is an asset to the club, and I won't bad mouth him at all, but you can't build a good lineup with him as your 3 hitter. Can you say the same about Gathright at lead off? I don't know how you could. I know he has no pop...I know everyone hates how much he bunts...and he does dumb things sometimes...but he's inexperienced. Give him a full year in the lead off spot and watch how much better this offense is. Give him a full year in the outfield and watch how many times he makes web gems.
You see, Joey Gathright could be exciting. He could bunt his way on, steal second, move to third on a ground ball and score on a shallow fly ball. He can manufacture runs by himself. He can take away runs with his speed in the outfield. He's a raw talent with a ton of potential, which is exactly what this team is built around. It's the only reason for hope in Kansas City: potential. Let us hope Trey, at least for a while...start Joey Gathright.
Amazing Deal...
If you're a Royals fan, and you have kids...you can't miss this deal:
June 1st- Cleveland Indians on a Sunday afternoon.
First 10,000 kids get a Build-A-Bear
Bob Evans Family and Friends Day
4 Outfield Plaza tickets
4 hot dogs
4 sodas 1 bag of Peanuts
$44
That deal is absurd...
June 1st- Cleveland Indians on a Sunday afternoon.
First 10,000 kids get a Build-A-Bear
Bob Evans Family and Friends Day
4 Outfield Plaza tickets
4 hot dogs
4 sodas 1 bag of Peanuts
$44
That deal is absurd...
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Randomness
Some real quick random thoughts...
Has a team ever put up 109 with a lower high scorer than last night? The Jayhawks put up 109 on a hapless Texas Tech team, with Russell Robinson leading the way with 15 points. To me, that's incredible. What's more amazing? That Tech beat Texas on Saturday in the middle of a 44 point loss to A&M and a 58 point loss to Kansas. Regardless, Tech's season is done and the Jayhawks are still in the hunt for a #1 seed.
Joey Gathright had 3 stolen bases yesterday...John Bale threw three scoreless innings...and the Royals won. Bale has thrown a couple of early haymakers at De la Rosa in the battle for the lefty starting job. I'm just wondering if Mike Maroth is ever going to step into the ring. Gathright is doing exactly what I'd hoped he would, making it hard for the Royals to bench him. Seems to me that the odds of Teahan moving to first and Gathright moving to the outfield get better everyday...we can hope.
Has a team ever put up 109 with a lower high scorer than last night? The Jayhawks put up 109 on a hapless Texas Tech team, with Russell Robinson leading the way with 15 points. To me, that's incredible. What's more amazing? That Tech beat Texas on Saturday in the middle of a 44 point loss to A&M and a 58 point loss to Kansas. Regardless, Tech's season is done and the Jayhawks are still in the hunt for a #1 seed.
Joey Gathright had 3 stolen bases yesterday...John Bale threw three scoreless innings...and the Royals won. Bale has thrown a couple of early haymakers at De la Rosa in the battle for the lefty starting job. I'm just wondering if Mike Maroth is ever going to step into the ring. Gathright is doing exactly what I'd hoped he would, making it hard for the Royals to bench him. Seems to me that the odds of Teahan moving to first and Gathright moving to the outfield get better everyday...we can hope.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Play Ball!
The Royals are currently in the 9th inning of their 4th game of the year, leading 7-5. While I'm the first to admit that 4 Spring Training games have very little meaning (Grudz and Guillen haven't even played yet), there are a few things that Royals fans can be encouraged by:
1. Luke Hochevar threw 2 more scoreless innings today; meaning his Spring Training stats look like this: 4 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 BB, 2 Ks. Again it's really early, but Trey Hillman said Hochevar would have to out-pitch a lot of his teammates to make the team...he's doing it so far. Is it better to have Hochevar in the rotation or the pen? Ideally I'd say the bullpen, and that answer has nothing to do with Luke at all. For him to make the rotation, a lot of guys are going to have to have a bad spring. I think it would be a lot better sign for the team if Hochevar pitches well enough to break camp with the club, but has to start in the pen because the guys they expect to start earn their spots.
2. DeJesus, Teahan, Gordon, and Butler are all hitting. These four guys all need to have better seasons than they did last year. They could all benefit from a confidence boost early in the year as well (although I think Butler's confidence will be fine regardless). I said at the beginning of the year that I wanted to see Butler and Gordon in the middle of the lineup, as long as they keep hitting the ball they may be. Just wait until Jose Guillen joins these guys in the lineup...
3. Speaking of Guillen, a recent article in Sports Illustrated that those listed in the Mitchell Report may get a fresh start, without punishment from Commissioner Bud Selig. Guillen's suspension is currently being appealed and this could be huge for the Royals. Those first 12 games (almost all against expected playoff contenders) would seem much less daunting with Guillen in the lineup.
Sure, the naysayers will tell you about Joakim Soria and Zack Greinke getting bombed in their first appearances...or about the atrocious infield defense...I'll leave those downers, and others, to them. To me, that's not what spring is about; Spring is about believing that Jose Guillen is worth $36 million. That not only can Meche, Bannister, and Soria repeat last year's success...but that they can improve upon it. That Billy Butler can learn to play 1st base. That Alex Gordon is the next George Brett. That if Trey Hillman can manage a team to a Japanese World Series, he can do the same here. Finally, and most importantly, that the misery is over...No more 100 loss seasons, no more out of contention by May, no more bad trades and worse drafts... Yeah, that's what Spring is about to the Kool Aid Drinker.
1. Luke Hochevar threw 2 more scoreless innings today; meaning his Spring Training stats look like this: 4 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 BB, 2 Ks. Again it's really early, but Trey Hillman said Hochevar would have to out-pitch a lot of his teammates to make the team...he's doing it so far. Is it better to have Hochevar in the rotation or the pen? Ideally I'd say the bullpen, and that answer has nothing to do with Luke at all. For him to make the rotation, a lot of guys are going to have to have a bad spring. I think it would be a lot better sign for the team if Hochevar pitches well enough to break camp with the club, but has to start in the pen because the guys they expect to start earn their spots.
2. DeJesus, Teahan, Gordon, and Butler are all hitting. These four guys all need to have better seasons than they did last year. They could all benefit from a confidence boost early in the year as well (although I think Butler's confidence will be fine regardless). I said at the beginning of the year that I wanted to see Butler and Gordon in the middle of the lineup, as long as they keep hitting the ball they may be. Just wait until Jose Guillen joins these guys in the lineup...
3. Speaking of Guillen, a recent article in Sports Illustrated that those listed in the Mitchell Report may get a fresh start, without punishment from Commissioner Bud Selig. Guillen's suspension is currently being appealed and this could be huge for the Royals. Those first 12 games (almost all against expected playoff contenders) would seem much less daunting with Guillen in the lineup.
Sure, the naysayers will tell you about Joakim Soria and Zack Greinke getting bombed in their first appearances...or about the atrocious infield defense...I'll leave those downers, and others, to them. To me, that's not what spring is about; Spring is about believing that Jose Guillen is worth $36 million. That not only can Meche, Bannister, and Soria repeat last year's success...but that they can improve upon it. That Billy Butler can learn to play 1st base. That Alex Gordon is the next George Brett. That if Trey Hillman can manage a team to a Japanese World Series, he can do the same here. Finally, and most importantly, that the misery is over...No more 100 loss seasons, no more out of contention by May, no more bad trades and worse drafts... Yeah, that's what Spring is about to the Kool Aid Drinker.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Finally, the lineup
All of the focus it seems is on the pitching with the Royals this year...
Who will win the last two spots in the rotation?
Will Meche and Bannister be as good as last year?
Will Greinke finally turn into the stud we think he can be?
Can Yasuhiko Yabuta be the next great Japanese set up man?
How will the sophomore season of closer Joakim Soria go?
All of these questions and more are important. Heck, I won't even debate that pitching wins championships. Nope, no questioning the importance of pitching but there is one other thing you can't debate; you have to score runs to win...especially in the American League. How is this team going to do that? Last year the Royals finished 27th in the majors in runs scored, no matter how good the pitching is, that won't cut it...but there's reason for hope:
- Jose Guillen. I should be able to stop at the period, but there are enough naysayers out there, I'll offer this: Guillen would have been the best bat on the Royals last year, there's no reason to expect anything different this year. He gives this lineup a sense of legitimacy it didn't have last year...much like Gil Meche did for the rotation last year. Guillen will make Gordon, Butler, and Teahan better.
- Billy Butler drove in 52 runs(5th on the team) in only 329 at bats. Not a great percentage, but assuming he's closer to 550 at bats this season he should be more productive than any bat the Royals had last year. I think .320/25 HRs/90 RBI is a very realistic projection of Butler's sophomore year.
- No way Alex Gordon starts as bad as he did last year. After the break he hit .264 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 70 games. I think it's very possible that's we'll see him in the same 25 Homer 90 RBI ball park as Billy Butler.
- Trey Hillman has a new approach. I've heard this a lot, but I'm not sure exactly what it is. Regardless, it has to be better than Buddy Bell's approach...anything different is better. One thing I have heard is that he likes to manufacture runs and Joey Gathright could be a big part of that plan. Gathright's talent and speed is unquestionable, I just hope we've found someone who can hone it.
With that being said, here's the lineup I'd put out there 150 games a year:
CF Joey Gathright
LF David DeJesus
DH Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
C John Buck
1B Mark Teahan
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena Jr
Now I know a lot of you are wondering why Teahan and Grudz are at the bottom...I think we know what we have in these guys, decent hitters...consistent...solid...but not legitimate 2 and 3 hitters. We're hoping that Gordon and Butler can develop into middle of the order guys right? Why not start them there with some protection? Won't they see a lot more fastballs there then if they're hitting in front of TPJ? My case for Gathright? He's the only legit leadoff hitter we have and he hit .307 last year. More important than that? He's a raw talent. Yeah, he still needs polishing, but so did Willie Wilson, we've got to take a chance on raw talents like this and give them a chance to turn into what they could.
Now here is the lineup I expect...(once Guillen's suspension is over)
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
LF Mark Teahan
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena Jr
To me, that lineup isn't near as exciting. But what would be exciting is if Hillman chose a lineup and stuck with it. I understand he may be a tinkerer, but Buddy Bell's 'experimenting' with the lineup got very old and in my opinion was a detriment to the team.
What do I expect either of those lineups to do? Score more runs than last year. It seems to me that top 20 would be a nice improvement, and with our pitching top 15 could get us into the playoff race. I think both of those are possible, with Gordon and Butler turning into borderline superstars.
Who will win the last two spots in the rotation?
Will Meche and Bannister be as good as last year?
Will Greinke finally turn into the stud we think he can be?
Can Yasuhiko Yabuta be the next great Japanese set up man?
How will the sophomore season of closer Joakim Soria go?
All of these questions and more are important. Heck, I won't even debate that pitching wins championships. Nope, no questioning the importance of pitching but there is one other thing you can't debate; you have to score runs to win...especially in the American League. How is this team going to do that? Last year the Royals finished 27th in the majors in runs scored, no matter how good the pitching is, that won't cut it...but there's reason for hope:
- Jose Guillen. I should be able to stop at the period, but there are enough naysayers out there, I'll offer this: Guillen would have been the best bat on the Royals last year, there's no reason to expect anything different this year. He gives this lineup a sense of legitimacy it didn't have last year...much like Gil Meche did for the rotation last year. Guillen will make Gordon, Butler, and Teahan better.
- Billy Butler drove in 52 runs(5th on the team) in only 329 at bats. Not a great percentage, but assuming he's closer to 550 at bats this season he should be more productive than any bat the Royals had last year. I think .320/25 HRs/90 RBI is a very realistic projection of Butler's sophomore year.
- No way Alex Gordon starts as bad as he did last year. After the break he hit .264 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 70 games. I think it's very possible that's we'll see him in the same 25 Homer 90 RBI ball park as Billy Butler.
- Trey Hillman has a new approach. I've heard this a lot, but I'm not sure exactly what it is. Regardless, it has to be better than Buddy Bell's approach...anything different is better. One thing I have heard is that he likes to manufacture runs and Joey Gathright could be a big part of that plan. Gathright's talent and speed is unquestionable, I just hope we've found someone who can hone it.
With that being said, here's the lineup I'd put out there 150 games a year:
CF Joey Gathright
LF David DeJesus
DH Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
C John Buck
1B Mark Teahan
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena Jr
Now I know a lot of you are wondering why Teahan and Grudz are at the bottom...I think we know what we have in these guys, decent hitters...consistent...solid...but not legitimate 2 and 3 hitters. We're hoping that Gordon and Butler can develop into middle of the order guys right? Why not start them there with some protection? Won't they see a lot more fastballs there then if they're hitting in front of TPJ? My case for Gathright? He's the only legit leadoff hitter we have and he hit .307 last year. More important than that? He's a raw talent. Yeah, he still needs polishing, but so did Willie Wilson, we've got to take a chance on raw talents like this and give them a chance to turn into what they could.
Now here is the lineup I expect...(once Guillen's suspension is over)
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
LF Mark Teahan
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena Jr
To me, that lineup isn't near as exciting. But what would be exciting is if Hillman chose a lineup and stuck with it. I understand he may be a tinkerer, but Buddy Bell's 'experimenting' with the lineup got very old and in my opinion was a detriment to the team.
What do I expect either of those lineups to do? Score more runs than last year. It seems to me that top 20 would be a nice improvement, and with our pitching top 15 could get us into the playoff race. I think both of those are possible, with Gordon and Butler turning into borderline superstars.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Starstruck 2/20
Guillen makes presence felt on first day in Royals’ camp
I can’t tell you how excited I was by this article. You all know, I’m a bit of a Royals homer (or at least the Kool Aid Drinker is)…but I spent the off-season defending Dayton and this move, just like I did last year with the Gil Meche signing. Here’s why I think this could work:
Kansas City needs a big shot and Jose Guillen needs somewhere that he can be the big shot. He can make his demands, go off on a tangent every once in a while…whatever. I think we have just the right mix of guys here to say “Okay, that’s just Jose being Jose” and laugh it off. I mean, Emil’s gone, someone has to make ridiculous statements.
From reading this article, and everything else I’ve read, it sounds like the team is really reaching out to Jose, maybe even coddling him a little…fantastic. There aren’t any egos too big on this team, which to me means there’s plenty of room for Guillen’s…kind of like how the Red Sox treat Man Ram…Yeah, I know, Guillen’s no Man Ram…the talent in our locker room isn’t the same as the Red Sox either…I really think this could work…
Progress in Allen negotiations may be problem with Peterson
Okay, a lot of you are probably thinking “Surprise, surprise another Whitlock Anti-Carl column”. Yeah, you’re right…and so is Whitlock. King Carl’s reign of terror is almost over, everyone knows that. Whether Carl decides to leave on his own or Clark Hunt finally fires him I doubt there’s anyone that expects Carl to be with the Chiefs in three years. So as a parting gift he’s going to chase off yet another great Chief? Shocking!
How much of Donnie Edwards prime did we miss? Think we’re getting ready think the same thing about Kawika Mitchell? How about John Tait? Think we could have used him this season? Now I know you can’t sign everyone, but Carl has made a habit of alienating players that we as fans really end up missing.
Bottom line, Jared Allen is bigger than Edwards, Mitchell or Tait…Jared Allen is the face of the Chiefs right now. You think fans relate to LJ? Please. Brodie? Most of them want him gone. It’s Jared Allen, and besides that, he’s a stud. If Carl blows this it’ll be a fitting black eye for him to leave on the organization.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Starstruck
Olivo disappointed that Buck enters camp as Royals’ starting catcher
I love reading this story. As long as Olivo isn't cancerous about this, it's exactly what we want. You really want someone on your team that's okay with being a backup? Did you see Jason LaBOOOOOO last year? I said earlier this year that Buck would be the starter, regardless of the Oliva acquisition, but the competition can't hurt.
Chiefs put franchise tag on defensive end Allen
I don't love reading this. Like so many things that have happened at Arrowhead...WHY?!?! Why didn't we get a long term deal done long before this? Why spend 8.9 million on Allen this year, when no one thinks we'll be competitive, if it pretty much assures that he won't be back next year? Allen is easily the most popular guy on the team, maybe in the city and everyone is going to take his side. Surely Carl has a better plan than this to keep him in KC, right?
I love reading this story. As long as Olivo isn't cancerous about this, it's exactly what we want. You really want someone on your team that's okay with being a backup? Did you see Jason LaBOOOOOO last year? I said earlier this year that Buck would be the starter, regardless of the Oliva acquisition, but the competition can't hurt.
Chiefs put franchise tag on defensive end Allen
I don't love reading this. Like so many things that have happened at Arrowhead...WHY?!?! Why didn't we get a long term deal done long before this? Why spend 8.9 million on Allen this year, when no one thinks we'll be competitive, if it pretty much assures that he won't be back next year? Allen is easily the most popular guy on the team, maybe in the city and everyone is going to take his side. Surely Carl has a better plan than this to keep him in KC, right?
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Not so fast
The Kool Aid Drinker was ready for a quick write up on what should be the most stable part of the Royals in 2008, the bullpen. Read that again "What should be the most stable part of the Royals in 2008, the bullpen." Yeah, and I meant it. Joakim "The Warria" Soria closing out games, being set up by the import Yasuhiko "Smooth Like" Yabuta, "The First Joel" Peralta and Himmy Hobble. Sure, we'd fill in a couple places, Ron Mahay would be another lefty, maybe John Bale would too...Luke Hudson and Leo Nunez my fill out the bullpen...and then this article...Luke Hochevar in the bullpen? Brilliant! Okay, maybe not that brilliant, but this quote from Trey Hillman was:
"What we want to do for our Major League club now is provide it with the best 12 pitchers that we can -- period. It's as simple as that -- period."
That's exactly what we need to do, in fact I'd say it should just be the plan to put Hochevar in the bullpen, at least until the All Star Break. For one thing it keeps his innings down, something that's always a concern with young arms. For another, it keeps him getting exposed too early. It's much harder for teams to develop a book on a young reliever who's throwing roughly 1/3rd as many innings as he would be as a starter. Yes, I love the Hochevar to the pen idea. That being said, if he earns it we're left with 6 spots in the pen...
- Soria will be our closer barring catastrophe
- Yabuta and Mahay are probably as guaranteed as anyone in the discussion
- Hard to see Peralta and Gobble not breaking camp with the team
That's leaves one spot for a ridiculous amount of candidates....
Ryan Braun, Bale, Hudson, Nunez, no to mention guys like Jorge De La Rosa, Brian Lawrence, Hideo Nomo that are vying for the rotation but expected (by the Kool Aid Drinker at least) to fall short. My vote goes to Nunez as long as he stays healthy, it's hard to imagine he will with that frame. No matter who wins the spot you have to praise Dayton Moore for the job he's done putting together this stable of arms. We've never had a competition like this with so many seasoned veterans and young arms vying for so few spots. It's hard to imagine that Trey Hillman wouldn't put together one of the best bullpens in all of baseball with many choices...now read that again.
"What we want to do for our Major League club now is provide it with the best 12 pitchers that we can -- period. It's as simple as that -- period."
That's exactly what we need to do, in fact I'd say it should just be the plan to put Hochevar in the bullpen, at least until the All Star Break. For one thing it keeps his innings down, something that's always a concern with young arms. For another, it keeps him getting exposed too early. It's much harder for teams to develop a book on a young reliever who's throwing roughly 1/3rd as many innings as he would be as a starter. Yes, I love the Hochevar to the pen idea. That being said, if he earns it we're left with 6 spots in the pen...
- Soria will be our closer barring catastrophe
- Yabuta and Mahay are probably as guaranteed as anyone in the discussion
- Hard to see Peralta and Gobble not breaking camp with the team
That's leaves one spot for a ridiculous amount of candidates....
Ryan Braun, Bale, Hudson, Nunez, no to mention guys like Jorge De La Rosa, Brian Lawrence, Hideo Nomo that are vying for the rotation but expected (by the Kool Aid Drinker at least) to fall short. My vote goes to Nunez as long as he stays healthy, it's hard to imagine he will with that frame. No matter who wins the spot you have to praise Dayton Moore for the job he's done putting together this stable of arms. We've never had a competition like this with so many seasoned veterans and young arms vying for so few spots. It's hard to imagine that Trey Hillman wouldn't put together one of the best bullpens in all of baseball with many choices...now read that again.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Pitchers and Catchers Report!
Today it all begins...no, not the Roger Clemens (alleged) perjury debacle...although that is a developing story that the Kool Aid Drinker is following closely, and you can too here. Nope, as big as the congressional hearing is, it's small potatoes compared to what starts today (officially) in Surprise, Arizona:
The Resurrection of the Royals... Led by Trey Hillman, orchestrated by Dayton Moore and brought to life by the likes of Awesome Alex Gordon and Bad Ass Billy Butler, this is finally the year that Kansas City returns to the baseball glory of the 70s and 80s. How? With pitching of course. That being said, the Kool Aid Drinker opens Spring Training with his look at the pitching staff...
(ed. note- This was originally going to be about the entire staff, but I wrote way too much on the starting rotation, and decided to save the Bullpen for Sunday.)
Rotation
There are three locks here; Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke. What I'm hoping is that Greinke and Bannister both out-perform Meche who is a pretty good bet to be between a 3.75 and 4.25 ERA. I'd assume that conventional wisdom indicates that Bannister has a slight dropoff as the league now has a book on him, but by the same token I think it's possible that Greinke has a breakout season, and if he gets run support and stays healthy he may approach 20 wins. In last week's blog I wrote that I expected Brett Tomko and De La Rosa to take the last two spots and I still think they're the favorites. Tomko, because that's what the Royals signed him for and I think he'd have to lose the job, De La Rosa because the Royals want a lefty starter and I think John Bale is better served as a reliever. But there are other candidates...
Kyle Davies- Probably has the best stuff, and I predicted earlier that he'd take Tomko's spot in May...Billy Butler said Davies looked really good at Winter Ball.
Luke Hochevar- This is best case scenario, he's 24 and a former first round pick...I think it's a bad sign if we don't see him in the majors at some point this season, but more likely it will be after the All Star Break.
Tyler Lumsden- Another guy battling with De La Rosa and Bale for the lefty spot...also 24 years old...also probably starts in Omaha.
Leo Nunez- Leave this guy in the bullpen.
Hideo "Nomo Mr. Nice Guy"- This is where things get interesting, the non-roster invitees. Noma was terrible (9-19, 7+ ERA) in 2004 and 2005 and then took 2 years off. This would be a national story if he makes the rotation.
Brian Lawrence- Lawrence also missed 2006, and was terrible in six games in 2007. But he was above average at one point and is only 31. I'd say his odds are much better than Nomo's and if given a chance he could challenge for a spot.
Ben Hendrickson- Okay, this is a stretch. He's a 27 year old righty with a 7.41 ERA in 12 career starts.
and the official Kool Aid Drinker Dark Horse Award goes to...
Mike Maroth- Yes, that Mike Maroth. If you didn't pay attention last year you'd probably wonder how the Royals signed Maroth to a minor league deal. Hop into the Kool Aid Drinker Time Machine and we'll take you back to 2006....
Maroth entered 2006 (his 5th in the majors) having won more games in each of his first four major league seasons, he was 28, he was ready to "Gil Meche" if you will. He started hot before hurting his elbow, having surgery and missing 3 months of the season. Still, he came back in 2007 and started 5-2 (albeit with a 5.06 ERA) before being traded to the hated Cardinals. Well, Maroth did what any self respecting heterosexual man would do upon being traded to St. Louis, he bombed...and when I say bombed I mean 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA... He went 2006 Joe Mays on them. So why is he my dark horse? He's a lefty with good enough stuff that he was once a great prospect, who had an injury, bombed for the most hated team this side of the Yankees and now Dayton Moore has picked him up off the scrap heap. What's not to like? Add to that that Bob McClure is already fixing his delivery and he has his own blog...Yep, that seals it, the Kool Aid Drinker is a member of the Mike Maroth fan club...now I just need a nickname for him...
Projected Opening Day Rotation
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Brett Tomko
Mike Maroth
In line...
Brian Lawrence
Kyle Davies
Luke Hochevar
Tyler Lumsden
(ed. note- Someone asked "You state De La Rose is a favorite, but then don't mention him here?" Well, yeah. I think he is the favorite for the lefty spot coming into camp but I think his control issues dictate he'll either end up in the bullpen or out of the equation altogether...I hope I'm wrong but he was bad at the end of last year, his ERA rising from 4.65 to 5.82 after June 5.)
The Resurrection of the Royals... Led by Trey Hillman, orchestrated by Dayton Moore and brought to life by the likes of Awesome Alex Gordon and Bad Ass Billy Butler, this is finally the year that Kansas City returns to the baseball glory of the 70s and 80s. How? With pitching of course. That being said, the Kool Aid Drinker opens Spring Training with his look at the pitching staff...
(ed. note- This was originally going to be about the entire staff, but I wrote way too much on the starting rotation, and decided to save the Bullpen for Sunday.)
Rotation
There are three locks here; Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke. What I'm hoping is that Greinke and Bannister both out-perform Meche who is a pretty good bet to be between a 3.75 and 4.25 ERA. I'd assume that conventional wisdom indicates that Bannister has a slight dropoff as the league now has a book on him, but by the same token I think it's possible that Greinke has a breakout season, and if he gets run support and stays healthy he may approach 20 wins. In last week's blog I wrote that I expected Brett Tomko and De La Rosa to take the last two spots and I still think they're the favorites. Tomko, because that's what the Royals signed him for and I think he'd have to lose the job, De La Rosa because the Royals want a lefty starter and I think John Bale is better served as a reliever. But there are other candidates...
Kyle Davies- Probably has the best stuff, and I predicted earlier that he'd take Tomko's spot in May...Billy Butler said Davies looked really good at Winter Ball.
Luke Hochevar- This is best case scenario, he's 24 and a former first round pick...I think it's a bad sign if we don't see him in the majors at some point this season, but more likely it will be after the All Star Break.
Tyler Lumsden- Another guy battling with De La Rosa and Bale for the lefty spot...also 24 years old...also probably starts in Omaha.
Leo Nunez- Leave this guy in the bullpen.
Hideo "Nomo Mr. Nice Guy"- This is where things get interesting, the non-roster invitees. Noma was terrible (9-19, 7+ ERA) in 2004 and 2005 and then took 2 years off. This would be a national story if he makes the rotation.
Brian Lawrence- Lawrence also missed 2006, and was terrible in six games in 2007. But he was above average at one point and is only 31. I'd say his odds are much better than Nomo's and if given a chance he could challenge for a spot.
Ben Hendrickson- Okay, this is a stretch. He's a 27 year old righty with a 7.41 ERA in 12 career starts.
and the official Kool Aid Drinker Dark Horse Award goes to...
Mike Maroth- Yes, that Mike Maroth. If you didn't pay attention last year you'd probably wonder how the Royals signed Maroth to a minor league deal. Hop into the Kool Aid Drinker Time Machine and we'll take you back to 2006....
Maroth entered 2006 (his 5th in the majors) having won more games in each of his first four major league seasons, he was 28, he was ready to "Gil Meche" if you will. He started hot before hurting his elbow, having surgery and missing 3 months of the season. Still, he came back in 2007 and started 5-2 (albeit with a 5.06 ERA) before being traded to the hated Cardinals. Well, Maroth did what any self respecting heterosexual man would do upon being traded to St. Louis, he bombed...and when I say bombed I mean 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA... He went 2006 Joe Mays on them. So why is he my dark horse? He's a lefty with good enough stuff that he was once a great prospect, who had an injury, bombed for the most hated team this side of the Yankees and now Dayton Moore has picked him up off the scrap heap. What's not to like? Add to that that Bob McClure is already fixing his delivery and he has his own blog...Yep, that seals it, the Kool Aid Drinker is a member of the Mike Maroth fan club...now I just need a nickname for him...
Projected Opening Day Rotation
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Brett Tomko
Mike Maroth
In line...
Brian Lawrence
Kyle Davies
Luke Hochevar
Tyler Lumsden
(ed. note- Someone asked "You state De La Rose is a favorite, but then don't mention him here?" Well, yeah. I think he is the favorite for the lefty spot coming into camp but I think his control issues dictate he'll either end up in the bullpen or out of the equation altogether...I hope I'm wrong but he was bad at the end of last year, his ERA rising from 4.65 to 5.82 after June 5.)
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Big Blog News
Making the rest of us look like what we are (amateurs), Rany Jazayerli as started a new blog Rany on the Royals. Why is this significant?
Rany is a Royals fan whose optimism comes as close to the Kool Aid Drinker's as any legitimate journalist does. It used to be I could only find his opinions on Rob Neyer's site which was updated far too infrequently. He's also a regular guy with a regular job which means he's much more entertaining than someone who has to muzzle his opinion to keep his paycheck. Finally, if you're like me and you love stats, Rany was one of the original founders of the Baseball Prospectus. It's only the most comprehensive baseball book on the planet.
I became a bigger fan of Rany's when I heard him on 810 today telling Kevin Keitzman how much he expected Trey Hillman to use Joey Gathright. The Kool Aid Drinker loves Joey Gathright, and likes Hillman more already.
So welcome, Rany to the world blogging, we're lucky to have you.
Rany is a Royals fan whose optimism comes as close to the Kool Aid Drinker's as any legitimate journalist does. It used to be I could only find his opinions on Rob Neyer's site which was updated far too infrequently. He's also a regular guy with a regular job which means he's much more entertaining than someone who has to muzzle his opinion to keep his paycheck. Finally, if you're like me and you love stats, Rany was one of the original founders of the Baseball Prospectus. It's only the most comprehensive baseball book on the planet.
I became a bigger fan of Rany's when I heard him on 810 today telling Kevin Keitzman how much he expected Trey Hillman to use Joey Gathright. The Kool Aid Drinker loves Joey Gathright, and likes Hillman more already.
So welcome, Rany to the world blogging, we're lucky to have you.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
8 days left
Okay, technically there are 8 days left until Spring Training, but according to the Royals website, we're getting a head start. The most exciting part of that article for the Kool Aid Drinker? The big three (Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke) are all expected in early. It's one thing for the guys trying to earn a spot in the rotation to get there early, quite another for the aces of the staff to do it.
Yeah, I said aces...plural...that's what this team will need if we're going to compete this year, three aces, 45 wins out of the Big 3, a sub 4.00 ERA...now don't go writing that down as a prediction, the Kool Aid Drinker will wait until late March for the official predictions. Okay, okay I'll give you one...Meche(9), Bannister(12) and Greinke(7) will all win more games than they did last year...you can write that down...in pen.
So, the head start got me excited, but not near as excited as the email I recieved today telling me that I need to register for the right to buy Opening Day tickets...Two months and two days until the Evil Empire invades the K and gets shut down by Gil Meche...until Bad Ass Billy Butler and Awesome Alex Gordon begin their assault on the 22 year old home run record of Steve "Bye Bye" Balboni...until chili cheese fries and beer...short of MU/KU at Arrowhead this will be the hottest ticket in a long time in Kansas City, a hey day for scalpers and... okay, prediction #2- Royals 7, Yankees 2.
Other musings before the Boys in Blue get started...
- John "Don't give a Buck" if you bring in Johnny Bench, he's the starting catcher and that's not going to change
- The last two spots in the rotation have Jorge De La Rosa and Brett Tomko pencilled in. The Kool Aid Drinker likes Kyle Davies to replace Tomko spot by May.
- Joey Gathright should start on Opening Day...and make it hard to yank him when Guillen's suspension is over.
- I'm saving the official prediction for later, but right now I'm thinking between 85-95 wins sounds about right
- ...so does 2 million in attendance for the year
That's all for now, I don't want to get too carried away in February...
Yeah, I said aces...plural...that's what this team will need if we're going to compete this year, three aces, 45 wins out of the Big 3, a sub 4.00 ERA...now don't go writing that down as a prediction, the Kool Aid Drinker will wait until late March for the official predictions. Okay, okay I'll give you one...Meche(9), Bannister(12) and Greinke(7) will all win more games than they did last year...you can write that down...in pen.
So, the head start got me excited, but not near as excited as the email I recieved today telling me that I need to register for the right to buy Opening Day tickets...Two months and two days until the Evil Empire invades the K and gets shut down by Gil Meche...until Bad Ass Billy Butler and Awesome Alex Gordon begin their assault on the 22 year old home run record of Steve "Bye Bye" Balboni...until chili cheese fries and beer...short of MU/KU at Arrowhead this will be the hottest ticket in a long time in Kansas City, a hey day for scalpers and... okay, prediction #2- Royals 7, Yankees 2.
Other musings before the Boys in Blue get started...
- John "Don't give a Buck" if you bring in Johnny Bench, he's the starting catcher and that's not going to change
- The last two spots in the rotation have Jorge De La Rosa and Brett Tomko pencilled in. The Kool Aid Drinker likes Kyle Davies to replace Tomko spot by May.
- Joey Gathright should start on Opening Day...and make it hard to yank him when Guillen's suspension is over.
- I'm saving the official prediction for later, but right now I'm thinking between 85-95 wins sounds about right
- ...so does 2 million in attendance for the year
That's all for now, I don't want to get too carried away in February...
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Quick hits
It's Super Bowl Sunday, which changes everything, including the schedule at KCSR, but a few quick thoughts...
Is there a KC bias in the Hall of Fames? Derrick Thomas? Frank White? How long it took Buck O'Neil to get in? Andre Tippett got in before DT? Really!?!? Good work Gretz...
If the Pats really did cheat to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, kudos...I hope they cheated to beat the Raiders in the AFC Championship the year of the tuck too... Couldn't happen to nicer fans.
So Mizzou has beaten Texas and K-State but lost to Iowa St and Nebraska? Weird...
KU's win over Colorado was gross for about 30 minutes...they better shake off the cobwebs by Monday night.
The Giants are the worst World Champion since the Cardinals won the World Series...
Border War tomorrow!!!
Is there a KC bias in the Hall of Fames? Derrick Thomas? Frank White? How long it took Buck O'Neil to get in? Andre Tippett got in before DT? Really!?!? Good work Gretz...
If the Pats really did cheat to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, kudos...I hope they cheated to beat the Raiders in the AFC Championship the year of the tuck too... Couldn't happen to nicer fans.
So Mizzou has beaten Texas and K-State but lost to Iowa St and Nebraska? Weird...
KU's win over Colorado was gross for about 30 minutes...they better shake off the cobwebs by Monday night.
The Giants are the worst World Champion since the Cardinals won the World Series...
Border War tomorrow!!!
Sunday, January 20, 2008
KC Sports Report TV
Thought I'd start this week off with the man(kid) that's made the biggest impact in area sports in 2008...Michael Beasley was sick long before he got to Manhatten.
To hopefully make the Tiger fans feel better, a pretty fantastic Anthony Peeler dunk montage...and for those who thought the refs were bad last night, probably the worst call in Border War history.
Remember when all those Japanese kids were throwing up because of the cartoons? Hope they don't go to Brigade games at the Sprint Center...from the Brigade Open House...that scoreboard is wild.
In case you didn't make it to Royals FanFest, here's new manager Trey Hillman...and Trey from his 2006 Japanese Championship.
To hopefully make the Tiger fans feel better, a pretty fantastic Anthony Peeler dunk montage...and for those who thought the refs were bad last night, probably the worst call in Border War history.
Remember when all those Japanese kids were throwing up because of the cartoons? Hope they don't go to Brigade games at the Sprint Center...from the Brigade Open House...that scoreboard is wild.
In case you didn't make it to Royals FanFest, here's new manager Trey Hillman...and Trey from his 2006 Japanese Championship.
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