Dwayne Bowe has been an enigma if nothing else. He’s feuded with coaches, referred to his owner’s (Clark Hunt) family as “the Clarks”, been one of the best wide receivers in the league, looked completely disinterested in football, been one of the best wide receivers in the league again, and as of late, been made nearly irrelevant by a man named Palko. Even within 2011 he’s been maddening:
- In week 1 against a suspect Bills’ secondary Bowe caught two passes for 17 yards in a blowout loss
- Over the next 4 weeks he averaged 101 yards per game and scored 4 TDs
- Since then he’s not scored a touchdown, not topped 100 yards in a game, and only topped 80 yards twice
So if you’re like me and you have D-Bowe on your fantasy team, you’ve probably had him on your bench for the last three weeks. You can’t be blamed for completely falling asleep on Bowe, or the miserable Chiefs offense. However, if you’re still in the playoffs, it’s time to wake up. Bowe may be poised to have his biggest game of the season in Week 15 against the Packers. Why?
- If you believe the rumors coming out of KC, the last straw for HC Todd Haley came when he mocked Bowe for reporting some terrible things Haley had said to him to GM Scott Pioli. Bowe’s success has always been predicated on his level of buy-in. A week after Haley’s been fired, how hard do you think he’s going to play?
- The Chiefs and Bowe have been discussing extensions, and if he doesn’t get one Bowe knows he’s likely looking at the franchise tag next season. Think there’s any motivation there?
- The Packers pass defense has surrendered huge fantasy numbers this season, everybody knows that. Theirs is a risk/reward approach, and with all the passing the Chiefs will be doing on Sunday they will get burnt a couple of times, like they always do.
- Kyle Orton is starting. Orton threw for 273 yard and 3 TDs against this same defense in Week 4 this year. Sure he also threw three picks, but that’s irrelevant to Bowe’s performance. If there’s one thing we’ve seen from both Orton and Bowe it’s that they’re both willing to pad their stats in a blowout loss. They should have a full half of stat padding against the juggernaut Packers.
That’s 4 solid reasons to get Bowe off your bench and into your starting line up, you won’t regret it. Don’t have Bowe? Scrambling for a risk/reward play at WR? Here’ 4 more I think that could far outplay their rankings in Week 15(all rankings courtesy of footballguys.com):
Jabar Gaffney (ranked 31st on FBG) – Santana Moss has not been the same since returning from injury and the Giants pass defense has been terrible this season.
Eric Decker (ranked 50th)- Everyone should get in on the party in what should be a high scoring game vs the Pats. Decker is definitely high risk, but have you seen the Pats secondary?
Malcolm Floyd (ranked 53rd)- The only guy on this list with a bad match up, but Floyd can get behind the defense at any point for a score. You know the Ravens are going to focus heavily on Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.
Early Doucet (ranked 66th)- Joe Haden is going to be all over Larry Fitzgerald and Doucet has quietly put together a decent season.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Dayton Strikes Early Again
Dayton doesn't really believe in all that "patience is a virtue" stuff now does he? As everyone in Kansas City knows by now, Moore again made the early splash in the offseason by trading The Melkman for Jonathan Sanchez. I thought I should chime in with my thoughts, since I'm sure Steve will chime in on the Chiefs meltdown for me any time now.
I love the trade...absolutely love it. No, I'm not reviving the Kool Aid Report (not until March at least) and I'm not about to start predicting a Cy Young for Sanchez or a pennant for the Royals in 2012 (unless we sign a #1 starter). Instead, I'll be a little more realistic, here are three reasons I love the trade:
1. Buy low, sell high. It's a principle the Royals have to live by with their economic status and Dayton played it perfect on The Melkman. I would have never guessed that the Royals could pull a #3 starter for one year of Melky, and Dayton convinced the Giants to throw in a 24 year old AA pitcher too.
2. Time for the Painkiller. No matter how good Melky was last year, we all wanted to see what Lorenzo Cain could do in Kansas City. I don't expect him to be as good as Melky was last year, but I don't think Melky will be that good this year either...and Cain should be a huge upgrade defensively, which should help Sanchez and the rest of the Royals pitchers.
3. Oswalt anyone? I know there are some who think the Royals may be a player for CJ Wilson, and others who say they may go after Carlos Zambrano...but Oswalt is the one I want. This trade makes the team better, which should help to attract the free agent #1 GMDM decides he wants.
Now...if that happens? Well...what do you think?
Cain CF
Gordon LF
Butler DH
Hosmer 1B
Frenchy RF
Moose 3B
Sal C
Gio 2B
Escobar SS
Free Agent #1
Sanchez
Hoch
Duffy
Paulino
I love the trade...absolutely love it. No, I'm not reviving the Kool Aid Report (not until March at least) and I'm not about to start predicting a Cy Young for Sanchez or a pennant for the Royals in 2012 (unless we sign a #1 starter). Instead, I'll be a little more realistic, here are three reasons I love the trade:
1. Buy low, sell high. It's a principle the Royals have to live by with their economic status and Dayton played it perfect on The Melkman. I would have never guessed that the Royals could pull a #3 starter for one year of Melky, and Dayton convinced the Giants to throw in a 24 year old AA pitcher too.
2. Time for the Painkiller. No matter how good Melky was last year, we all wanted to see what Lorenzo Cain could do in Kansas City. I don't expect him to be as good as Melky was last year, but I don't think Melky will be that good this year either...and Cain should be a huge upgrade defensively, which should help Sanchez and the rest of the Royals pitchers.
3. Oswalt anyone? I know there are some who think the Royals may be a player for CJ Wilson, and others who say they may go after Carlos Zambrano...but Oswalt is the one I want. This trade makes the team better, which should help to attract the free agent #1 GMDM decides he wants.
Now...if that happens? Well...what do you think?
Cain CF
Gordon LF
Butler DH
Hosmer 1B
Frenchy RF
Moose 3B
Sal C
Gio 2B
Escobar SS
Free Agent #1
Sanchez
Hoch
Duffy
Paulino
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Turner Gill Is No Terry Allen
Yeah, I know I said the fantasy story lines for this week’s Chiefs-Chargers game was coming today…and maybe it still will. But right now, I’m a little too frustrated to think that logically. Turner Gill has to go…like now. He’s damaging a program that was already pretty damn low. Gill’s been so bad, that he’s actually tarnishing the legacy of Terry Allen. How is that even possible? All I hear is about how Turner Gill is just like Terry Allen, too nice a guy, too bad a coach. I’m not here to defend Terry Allen but..well…yes I am. Terry Allen was nowhere near as bad as Turner Gill.
First and foremost, Terry Allen was a more successful coach when he got to Kansas. 75-26 at Northern Iowa is much more impressive than 20-30 at Buffalo. Gill had ONE winning season when he was hired to coach Kansas. Allen had never had a losing season. Sure Buffalo was a historically bad program before Gill got there, and No. Iowa is a Division 1-AA school… but how in the world do you hire a coach that’s 10 games under .500 at a MAC school!?!?!? At least with Allen there was some hope that his 1-AA success would translate to the next level. With Gill there’s never been any hope at all.
Second, Kansas was much more competitive under Allen than they have been under Gill. As if 5-15 (1-12 in the BIG 12) isn’t bad enough, Gill’s Jayhawks have been embarrassed in just about every way imaginable and it started on Day One:
- 6-3 loss to North Dakota State (Allen never lost to a Div1-AA school and was 9-3 all time against schools that weren’t from BCS conferences)
- Ten of their fifteen losses have come by 28 points or more (Allen had 12 losses of 28 points or more…in FOUR AND HALF YEARS!)
- The Jayhawks have given up 353 points through 8 games (Allen’s teams gave up more than 353 in an entire season twice…359 in 2000 and 354 in 1999)
It’s not just the failures that indict Gill. It’s his (minor) successes as well. The five wins for the Jayhawks so far?
28-25 over Georgia Tech (6-7)
42-16 over New Mexico State (2-10)
52-45 over Colorado (5-7)
42-24 over 1AA McNeese St
45-42 over Northern Illinois
Pretty unimpressive right? Now, Allen won more than 5 games over his first 20 games (8 to be exact) but I was afraid some people would give Glen Mason too much credit for that (I’m sure Mason was diligently recruiting while he tried to plan his escape route, but anyway). So, let’s look at Allen’s last 20 games…the games that got him fired. He was 7-13, and here are his wins:
31-28 over Iowa State (4-7)
23-20 over UAB (7-4)
42-0 over Southern Illinois (3-8)
38-17 over Missouri (3-8)
23-15 over Colorado (3-8)
24-10 over 1AA Missouri State
34-31 over Texas Tech (7-5)
Not exactly awe-inspiring but measurably better than Gill right? I mean he beat Missouri (3 times in 4 1/2 years), he beat a bowl team, he beat a team from the south...and that was the worst stretch of Allen’s career at Kansas!
Listen, I’m not calling on the Jayhawks to bring back Terry Allen. He was not a good football coach. He never had a winning record, never made a bowl game, and frankly hasn’t done much at Missouri State since leaving. I am calling on the fans, media, etc. to stop comparing Gill to Terry Allen. Because as bad as Terry Allen was, Turner Gill might be the worst coach in Big 12 (World?) history.
First and foremost, Terry Allen was a more successful coach when he got to Kansas. 75-26 at Northern Iowa is much more impressive than 20-30 at Buffalo. Gill had ONE winning season when he was hired to coach Kansas. Allen had never had a losing season. Sure Buffalo was a historically bad program before Gill got there, and No. Iowa is a Division 1-AA school… but how in the world do you hire a coach that’s 10 games under .500 at a MAC school!?!?!? At least with Allen there was some hope that his 1-AA success would translate to the next level. With Gill there’s never been any hope at all.
Second, Kansas was much more competitive under Allen than they have been under Gill. As if 5-15 (1-12 in the BIG 12) isn’t bad enough, Gill’s Jayhawks have been embarrassed in just about every way imaginable and it started on Day One:
- 6-3 loss to North Dakota State (Allen never lost to a Div1-AA school and was 9-3 all time against schools that weren’t from BCS conferences)
- Ten of their fifteen losses have come by 28 points or more (Allen had 12 losses of 28 points or more…in FOUR AND HALF YEARS!)
- The Jayhawks have given up 353 points through 8 games (Allen’s teams gave up more than 353 in an entire season twice…359 in 2000 and 354 in 1999)
It’s not just the failures that indict Gill. It’s his (minor) successes as well. The five wins for the Jayhawks so far?
28-25 over Georgia Tech (6-7)
42-16 over New Mexico State (2-10)
52-45 over Colorado (5-7)
42-24 over 1AA McNeese St
45-42 over Northern Illinois
Pretty unimpressive right? Now, Allen won more than 5 games over his first 20 games (8 to be exact) but I was afraid some people would give Glen Mason too much credit for that (I’m sure Mason was diligently recruiting while he tried to plan his escape route, but anyway). So, let’s look at Allen’s last 20 games…the games that got him fired. He was 7-13, and here are his wins:
31-28 over Iowa State (4-7)
23-20 over UAB (7-4)
42-0 over Southern Illinois (3-8)
38-17 over Missouri (3-8)
23-15 over Colorado (3-8)
24-10 over 1AA Missouri State
34-31 over Texas Tech (7-5)
Not exactly awe-inspiring but measurably better than Gill right? I mean he beat Missouri (3 times in 4 1/2 years), he beat a bowl team, he beat a team from the south...and that was the worst stretch of Allen’s career at Kansas!
Listen, I’m not calling on the Jayhawks to bring back Terry Allen. He was not a good football coach. He never had a winning record, never made a bowl game, and frankly hasn’t done much at Missouri State since leaving. I am calling on the fans, media, etc. to stop comparing Gill to Terry Allen. Because as bad as Terry Allen was, Turner Gill might be the worst coach in Big 12 (World?) history.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Chiefs Need To Put Chargers In Poisiton To Fail
I wanted to continue what I started last week, with my top fantasy story lines for this week’s Chiefs game…and I will, tomorrow. But first, and more importantly:
1. Keep it close early. This Chargers team is (and always has been) fragile. The crowd at Arrowhead, on Halloween no less, may be an all-time great. If the Chiefs can stake an early lead, who has confidence that Philip Rivers (especially 2011 Philip Rivers) won’t meltdown? Arrowhead has long been famous as one of the best atmospheres in the league…especially on Monday Night Football. Last year, these same teams played on MNF to start the season, and the Chiefs victory (inspired by the loudest crowd I’d heard out there in years) led to an improbable division title. The recipe is still the same. Falling down one score early (like they did last year) would not be disastrous but any more than that could be.
2. Shutdown Ryan Mathews. With Rivers’ struggles and the statement made by the Chiefs secondary last week the Chargers are going to lean on the running game even more. It’s looking more and more like Mike Tolbert won’t play meaning Mathews should see even more touches. Mathews leads the team in rushing yards, total yards, and is second in receptions. He’s averaging 137 total yards a game in victories and just 96 in losses. As much as Mathews was maligned last season for fumbles and injuries, he’s turned into the heart of this Chargers’ offense. Shutting him down puts the pressure on Rivers in a hostile environment...and that is a great start.
3. Contain Antonio Gates. When he’s healthy, you can’t stop Antonio Gates, he’s proven that. Even last week when he wasn’t really healthy one of the best pass defenses in the league couldn’t stop him. Still, the point is, the Chiefs need to make the Chargers beat them with their weakness (wide outs) against the Chiefs’ strength (corners). This strategy will probably result in Rivers completing a deep bomb or two, but it will also give the Chiefs more opportunities to make the kind of big plays they’ll need to win this game.
Simple enough right? Listen, if you’re looking for a rah-rah speech about how this game makes us a lock to win the division you’d probably be better served going here. Even with a win here, the Chiefs have a tremendous amount of work to do to be anywhere close to the playoffs. That being said, this game is absolutely winnable.
The fact is, San Diego is a pretty good representation of their city. Their used to perfect, comfortable conditions...and a laid back atmosphere. Make them uncomfortable and the Chiefs have a pretty good chance of being in a first place tie on Tuesday morning, no matter how unlikely that seemed a month ago.
How do the Chiefs beat the Chargers?
I’d never want to underestimate the ability of Norv Turner to coach this team down to our level, and the Chargers have a litany of injuries that could do that without Norv’s help. Still, the Chiefs will have to do a lot of things right to win this game…amongst them:1. Keep it close early. This Chargers team is (and always has been) fragile. The crowd at Arrowhead, on Halloween no less, may be an all-time great. If the Chiefs can stake an early lead, who has confidence that Philip Rivers (especially 2011 Philip Rivers) won’t meltdown? Arrowhead has long been famous as one of the best atmospheres in the league…especially on Monday Night Football. Last year, these same teams played on MNF to start the season, and the Chiefs victory (inspired by the loudest crowd I’d heard out there in years) led to an improbable division title. The recipe is still the same. Falling down one score early (like they did last year) would not be disastrous but any more than that could be.
2. Shutdown Ryan Mathews. With Rivers’ struggles and the statement made by the Chiefs secondary last week the Chargers are going to lean on the running game even more. It’s looking more and more like Mike Tolbert won’t play meaning Mathews should see even more touches. Mathews leads the team in rushing yards, total yards, and is second in receptions. He’s averaging 137 total yards a game in victories and just 96 in losses. As much as Mathews was maligned last season for fumbles and injuries, he’s turned into the heart of this Chargers’ offense. Shutting him down puts the pressure on Rivers in a hostile environment...and that is a great start.
3. Contain Antonio Gates. When he’s healthy, you can’t stop Antonio Gates, he’s proven that. Even last week when he wasn’t really healthy one of the best pass defenses in the league couldn’t stop him. Still, the point is, the Chiefs need to make the Chargers beat them with their weakness (wide outs) against the Chiefs’ strength (corners). This strategy will probably result in Rivers completing a deep bomb or two, but it will also give the Chiefs more opportunities to make the kind of big plays they’ll need to win this game.
Simple enough right? Listen, if you’re looking for a rah-rah speech about how this game makes us a lock to win the division you’d probably be better served going here. Even with a win here, the Chiefs have a tremendous amount of work to do to be anywhere close to the playoffs. That being said, this game is absolutely winnable.
The fact is, San Diego is a pretty good representation of their city. Their used to perfect, comfortable conditions...and a laid back atmosphere. Make them uncomfortable and the Chiefs have a pretty good chance of being in a first place tie on Tuesday morning, no matter how unlikely that seemed a month ago.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
The coolest #HosmerFact yet?
Royals fans, prepare to have your minds blown courtesy of Baseball Reference’s Play Index:
Since 1919 there have been 6 rookies aged 21 or under to hit at least 18 HR, drive in 75 runs, and bat .290. You know who the most recent was, but for dramatic effect…
1936- Joe DiMaggio
1939- Ted Williams
1956- Frank Robinson
1958- Orlando Cepeda
2001- Albert Pujols
2011- Eric Hosmer
Before the saber metrics crowd closes the window…Yes, those are arbitrary data points…Yes, those are antiquated statistics…Yes, the other 5 players had significantly better seasons than Hosmer. Still, say it with me: DiMaggio, Williams, Robinson, Cepeda, Pujols, Hosmer. Think it’s completely meaningless? Find me a season comparison that puts Bob Hamelin in this group (not a lot of HOFers were 26 during their rookie season).
I will agree that the numbers above don’t quite fit the purpose of the article, which is to find the greatest comparison to Hosmer’s rookie year. For those, I gave into a few of the new age (more accurate) statistics. I replaced HRs with OPS+ (115 or higher), I replaced RBI with SLG % (.450 or higher) and I replaced batting average with qualifying for the batting title. We’re still looking for 21 (or younger) year old rookies here. The new results show 12 comparables…and one near perfect match. Before I get to the near perfect match, the rest:
- 10 of the 12 comps are HOF eligible, 7 of them are in the HOF
- The two that aren’t eligible yet are Albert Pujols and Jason Heyward
- 5 of the 12 were 20, while 7 of them were 21
Of those seven 21 year-olds, 1 of them was also a 1st baseman. This players OBP% was .001 below Hosmer’s, his SLG% was .004 above Hosmer’s and his OPS+ was 5 points higher. Not surprisingly he’s also the #1 match for Hosmer on Baseball Reference’s most similar players through age 21. His name? Eddie Murray.
Now if you’re my age you may only remember Murray as a switch-hitter with an awesome fro and an even more awesome mustache. The fact is, from 1981-1984 Murray was one of the best hitters in the American League, if not all of baseball. Incredibly, Murray put up an OPS+ of 156 in all four of those seasons, and deservedly finished in the top 5 of the MVP vote each year as well. He won a Gold Glove in three of the four seasons and led the Orioles to a World Championship in 1983.
Even Murray isn’t a perfect comp because he’s a switch hitter, he came into the league on a really good Orioles team, and Hosmer could never grow a fro that awesome. Even if he was a perfect comp, that wouldn’t mean Hosmer was going to follow Murray’s career arc (the best comp for Angel Berroa at age 23 was Ernie Banks). Sure, there are a lot of things that could go wrong between .290/18/75 at age 21 and the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, DiMaggio-Williams-Robinson-Cepeda-Pujols-Hosmer.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Raider Week from a Fantasy Perspective
I'll admit it, I was a little disturbed when I first saw that I was assigned the Chiefs-Raiders game this week for Football Guys. No matter what Steve says, I am a true Chiefs fan...so of course, I'm also a Raider Hater. My first thought was "How am I going to be objective through this donnybrook?" I mean, let's be honest...journalistic integrity hasn't exactly been a focal point of this blog. Of course then it hit me...this isn't just Raiders Week...this is the most interesting NFL game this week from a fantasy football perspective. I'm lucky to have this game. Hence, I bring you my top 4 story lines from Chiefs-Raiders.
The debut of Carson Palmer?
I'll admit it, I'm not one of those people killing the Raiders for this trade. Did they give up too much? Absolutely....but isn't that exactly what you'd want your team to do in this situation? The Raiders are 4-2 with Kansas city (twice), Denver, Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami left on their schedule. With their roster, even an adequate QB wins 5 of those games, maybe 6. Steal one against San Diego and you're looking at a division title.
So the question becomes, is Carson Palmer still an adequate QB? I think we find out on Sunday even if he doesn't start. No matter how talented the Raiders are, I don't think they're good enough to beat the Chiefs with Kyle Boller at QB and if they have playoff aspirations, this is a must win. So even if Hue Jackson doesn't have the cajones to start Palmer, I think we'll see him in this game. How he performs may be the biggest storyline of Week 7.
Does Jackie Battle get the ball?
Todd Haley spent most of last year giving Thomas Jones far more carries than he deserved in light of Jamal Charles' dominance. Some argue that Charles' dominance was because of the small workload and not despite it, but even if he falls to 5 yards a carry, he's a much better play than the 3 yards and cloud of dust the 33 year old Jones produces. So, if Charles couldn't wrestle carries away from Jones why would Battle? Jamal Charles is the future of this franchise and he's undersized. Haley could legitimately argue(wrongly I'd say) that it's in the best interest of the franchise to limit Charles' carries. With Battle there is no such argument. He's big, he's 28 years old, and (assuming Charles comes back full strength next year) his future value to the franchise is negligible. If Battle is truly more effective than Jones (and if you've watched the Chiefs this year you know he is) Haley has no excuse to not give him 20 carries a game. If he does, there's no reason to think he couldn't become a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes.
Which Oakland WR emerges with a new QB?
The Raiders receivers have been teasing fantasy owners for years. If Carson Palmer is (still) better than Jason Campbell, it's conceivable that one of them could turn into a fantasy stud...but which one? Jacoby Ford is ridiculously fast, and equally athletic...but for some reason has never turned that promise into results. Darrius Heyward-Bey is also explosive and has the whole 3rd-year-breakout-WR thing going for him. Denarius Moore got all of the preseason pub and exploded onto the scene a little over a month ago, but has all but disappeared since. Is it possible that all three of these talents WRs remain fantasy disappointments? Yeah, but it's also possible that Carson Palmer makes one (or more) of them relevant, and that would be huge.
Is Matt Cassel to Dwayne Bowe once again turning into one of the most dominant QB-WR pairs in the league?
Last year these two hooked up for over 1100 yards an 15 TDs to make them the most prolific duo in the league. Throughout the off season (and the first two weeks of this season) the popular theory was that an inferior schedule was mostly responsible. But since week 2 Bowe has 16 catches for 302 yards and 4 TDs putting him back on pace to be one of the top fantasy WRs in the league. A lot has been made about how much more difficult the Chiefs' schedule is this season but, in terms of pass defense, it's really not lining up that way. The Chiefs remaining schedule includes 4 of the 5 worst pass defenses in the league this season and 8 of their last 12 games are against the bottom 3rd of the league. The Raiders are one of those bad pass defenses and another good showing could turn Cassel into a borderline fantasy QB1 and cements Bowe's spot in the elite WRs.
The debut of Carson Palmer?
I'll admit it, I'm not one of those people killing the Raiders for this trade. Did they give up too much? Absolutely....but isn't that exactly what you'd want your team to do in this situation? The Raiders are 4-2 with Kansas city (twice), Denver, Minnesota, Chicago, and Miami left on their schedule. With their roster, even an adequate QB wins 5 of those games, maybe 6. Steal one against San Diego and you're looking at a division title.
So the question becomes, is Carson Palmer still an adequate QB? I think we find out on Sunday even if he doesn't start. No matter how talented the Raiders are, I don't think they're good enough to beat the Chiefs with Kyle Boller at QB and if they have playoff aspirations, this is a must win. So even if Hue Jackson doesn't have the cajones to start Palmer, I think we'll see him in this game. How he performs may be the biggest storyline of Week 7.
Does Jackie Battle get the ball?
Todd Haley spent most of last year giving Thomas Jones far more carries than he deserved in light of Jamal Charles' dominance. Some argue that Charles' dominance was because of the small workload and not despite it, but even if he falls to 5 yards a carry, he's a much better play than the 3 yards and cloud of dust the 33 year old Jones produces. So, if Charles couldn't wrestle carries away from Jones why would Battle? Jamal Charles is the future of this franchise and he's undersized. Haley could legitimately argue(wrongly I'd say) that it's in the best interest of the franchise to limit Charles' carries. With Battle there is no such argument. He's big, he's 28 years old, and (assuming Charles comes back full strength next year) his future value to the franchise is negligible. If Battle is truly more effective than Jones (and if you've watched the Chiefs this year you know he is) Haley has no excuse to not give him 20 carries a game. If he does, there's no reason to think he couldn't become a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes.
Which Oakland WR emerges with a new QB?
The Raiders receivers have been teasing fantasy owners for years. If Carson Palmer is (still) better than Jason Campbell, it's conceivable that one of them could turn into a fantasy stud...but which one? Jacoby Ford is ridiculously fast, and equally athletic...but for some reason has never turned that promise into results. Darrius Heyward-Bey is also explosive and has the whole 3rd-year-breakout-WR thing going for him. Denarius Moore got all of the preseason pub and exploded onto the scene a little over a month ago, but has all but disappeared since. Is it possible that all three of these talents WRs remain fantasy disappointments? Yeah, but it's also possible that Carson Palmer makes one (or more) of them relevant, and that would be huge.
Is Matt Cassel to Dwayne Bowe once again turning into one of the most dominant QB-WR pairs in the league?
Last year these two hooked up for over 1100 yards an 15 TDs to make them the most prolific duo in the league. Throughout the off season (and the first two weeks of this season) the popular theory was that an inferior schedule was mostly responsible. But since week 2 Bowe has 16 catches for 302 yards and 4 TDs putting him back on pace to be one of the top fantasy WRs in the league. A lot has been made about how much more difficult the Chiefs' schedule is this season but, in terms of pass defense, it's really not lining up that way. The Chiefs remaining schedule includes 4 of the 5 worst pass defenses in the league this season and 8 of their last 12 games are against the bottom 3rd of the league. The Raiders are one of those bad pass defenses and another good showing could turn Cassel into a borderline fantasy QB1 and cements Bowe's spot in the elite WRs.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Steve-(N)O!
"I don't get you Suck for Luckers. I truly don't. I probably should, because you should be the mascot for the greater Kansas City region. You think we're inferior. You think we can't aspire to greatness."
This pearl of wisdom from "Steve-O's" latest blog post...apparently I really got under his skin. I always love when someone goes with the 'you're not a true fan' blast when people don't see things the same way as them. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, I think King Carl used the same blast towards the end of his reign.
Now, I'm ready to fully admit that Suck4Luck was ignorant. I had this epiphany about 20 minutes into the Dolphins/Jets pukefest on MNF*. What I'm not ready to do is accept Steve's castration of those fans that were behind the movement from the beginning.
*Seriously, has there been a worse season of MNF than 2011? Rams-Giants? Dolphins-Jets? Colts-Bucs? Unfortunately, I'm afraid the worst may be yet to come. Jags-Ravens this week is a snoozefest. Chiefs-Pats later this year will be interesting only if Todd Haley has a 6 inch beard by then and goes postal on Belichick.
Steve, the reason people were on the Suck4Luck bandwagon is exactly because they "aspire to greatness". Sure, maybe a QB at #1 overall is 50/50 (it's more like 70/30) but do you think there is a 50/50 shot that Matt Cassel is leading us to greatness? Is there a 50/50 shot that the Chiefs make the playoffs without their best offensive and defensive players? We want greatness more than anything because it's been so damn long since we've seen it. Frankly, if our owner seemed a little more interested in greatness and a little less interested in padding his pockets maybe fans wouldn't be grasping at straws. But that proposition is much less than 50/50.
Now, the wheels have clearly fallen off the Suck4Luck bandwagon...and that's fine. I'm not (nor was I ever) actively rooting against the Chiefs. I do, however, think it needs to be pointed out that by putting your heart and soul into this team, you aren't striving for greatness...you're striving for mediocrity. I for one have seen plenty of that over the past 25 years.
This pearl of wisdom from "Steve-O's" latest blog post...apparently I really got under his skin. I always love when someone goes with the 'you're not a true fan' blast when people don't see things the same way as them. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, I think King Carl used the same blast towards the end of his reign.
Now, I'm ready to fully admit that Suck4Luck was ignorant. I had this epiphany about 20 minutes into the Dolphins/Jets pukefest on MNF*. What I'm not ready to do is accept Steve's castration of those fans that were behind the movement from the beginning.
*Seriously, has there been a worse season of MNF than 2011? Rams-Giants? Dolphins-Jets? Colts-Bucs? Unfortunately, I'm afraid the worst may be yet to come. Jags-Ravens this week is a snoozefest. Chiefs-Pats later this year will be interesting only if Todd Haley has a 6 inch beard by then and goes postal on Belichick.
Steve, the reason people were on the Suck4Luck bandwagon is exactly because they "aspire to greatness". Sure, maybe a QB at #1 overall is 50/50 (it's more like 70/30) but do you think there is a 50/50 shot that Matt Cassel is leading us to greatness? Is there a 50/50 shot that the Chiefs make the playoffs without their best offensive and defensive players? We want greatness more than anything because it's been so damn long since we've seen it. Frankly, if our owner seemed a little more interested in greatness and a little less interested in padding his pockets maybe fans wouldn't be grasping at straws. But that proposition is much less than 50/50.
Now, the wheels have clearly fallen off the Suck4Luck bandwagon...and that's fine. I'm not (nor was I ever) actively rooting against the Chiefs. I do, however, think it needs to be pointed out that by putting your heart and soul into this team, you aren't striving for greatness...you're striving for mediocrity. I for one have seen plenty of that over the past 25 years.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Suck4Luck was never meant to be
A good friend and one of the biggest supporters of the blog sent me a text 3 weeks ago with a fantastic idea for a blog. The basic idea was that we could never pull off Suck4Luck because we're the Chiefs, and we couldn't even suck right. Yeah, well, that was prophetic...and if it hadn't been for an even better opportunity I would have jumped all over it.
I could have written about how the most likely result was the Chiefs working their way into a 1-13 mess before miraculously winning out and missing out on Luck. To take it step further I could have found the best (worst) LSU defensive lineman available and projected that the Chiefs would take him withe the number 3 pick. 3-13, that would have almost been symbolic wouldn't it? After those disastrous 13-3 letdowns we experienced?
2003 when we couldn't force a single punt against the Colts
1997 when the Chiefs inexplicably went back to Grbac after Gannon led us to a 5-1 record down the stretch
1995 EFF YOU Lin Elliott
After looking at that list I guess it's even more symbolic that the Colts were the team to ruin Kansas City's Luck dreams. Now that the dream is over, where do we go from here? Obscurity, that's where...which is pretty much where this franchise has existed ever since we ran Marty out of town.
Oh, back to that better opportunity: I've been writing recaps for footballguys.com, the most comprehensive fantasy football site on the planet. It is subscription based ($27.95 a year I think) but if you're playing fantasy football for money (or pride) it's worth every penny. They give more information than you could ever get through and great contests. One of them is their semi-high roller Footballguys Player Championship with a $125,000 grand prize. I'm telling you, awesome stuff over there.
I could have written about how the most likely result was the Chiefs working their way into a 1-13 mess before miraculously winning out and missing out on Luck. To take it step further I could have found the best (worst) LSU defensive lineman available and projected that the Chiefs would take him withe the number 3 pick. 3-13, that would have almost been symbolic wouldn't it? After those disastrous 13-3 letdowns we experienced?
2003 when we couldn't force a single punt against the Colts
1997 when the Chiefs inexplicably went back to Grbac after Gannon led us to a 5-1 record down the stretch
1995 EFF YOU Lin Elliott
After looking at that list I guess it's even more symbolic that the Colts were the team to ruin Kansas City's Luck dreams. Now that the dream is over, where do we go from here? Obscurity, that's where...which is pretty much where this franchise has existed ever since we ran Marty out of town.
Oh, back to that better opportunity: I've been writing recaps for footballguys.com, the most comprehensive fantasy football site on the planet. It is subscription based ($27.95 a year I think) but if you're playing fantasy football for money (or pride) it's worth every penny. They give more information than you could ever get through and great contests. One of them is their semi-high roller Footballguys Player Championship with a $125,000 grand prize. I'm telling you, awesome stuff over there.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
It's Only September
September has turned into the Matt Cassell of months, what with all the pundits so quick to make excuses for his results. The Bills and Lions at 2-0? It's only September, there's still a long ways to go. The Royals absolutely crushing the ball while winning 9 of their last 11? It's only September, everyone else is mailing it in. The NBA lockout forcing the cancellation of preseason games? It's only September, no one will notice if we miss the first couple of months of the season. I'm sick of it and in terms of KC sports, I don't buy it.
The Chiefs are terrible, maybe historically bad. Back to back annihilations prove that...September or not. Their two best players are out for the year. Their coach and GM (allegedly) hate each other. This has all the markings of the worst Chiefs team in my lifetime. Are the Chiefs bad enough to #SuckforLuck? We'll have to wait on that one (at least until my post next week) but September has shown us enough.
The Royals youth movement is for real, and this team is a legitimate top of the rotation starter away from competing next year. Eric Hosmer's OPS (1.085 in September) is not meaningless. Mike Moustakas is learning to hit at this level (.914 OPS in September), regardless of the month. Sure, you can point to Hiram (Kyle) Davies...but that isn't the same. Davies had long established his sucktitude before his September heroics.
Does this September point to a larger trend? Are the Royals getting ready to surpass the Chiefs in terms of success (and in turn, support)? Over the last five years, even including their gift of a playoff appearance last year, the Chiefs winning % is .303 (20-46). They'd need to win 5 games this year to top that. The Royals meanwhile are poised to post their 2nd highest winning % (.439 currently) in the last 8 years. In case you'd like to argue that a bad baseball team will always win a higher % than a bad football team (generally true), let's go back to September:
Royals- 5.9 runs per game
Chiefs- 5.0 points per game
The Chiefs are terrible, maybe historically bad. Back to back annihilations prove that...September or not. Their two best players are out for the year. Their coach and GM (allegedly) hate each other. This has all the markings of the worst Chiefs team in my lifetime. Are the Chiefs bad enough to #SuckforLuck? We'll have to wait on that one (at least until my post next week) but September has shown us enough.
The Royals youth movement is for real, and this team is a legitimate top of the rotation starter away from competing next year. Eric Hosmer's OPS (1.085 in September) is not meaningless. Mike Moustakas is learning to hit at this level (.914 OPS in September), regardless of the month. Sure, you can point to Hiram (Kyle) Davies...but that isn't the same. Davies had long established his sucktitude before his September heroics.
Does this September point to a larger trend? Are the Royals getting ready to surpass the Chiefs in terms of success (and in turn, support)? Over the last five years, even including their gift of a playoff appearance last year, the Chiefs winning % is .303 (20-46). They'd need to win 5 games this year to top that. The Royals meanwhile are poised to post their 2nd highest winning % (.439 currently) in the last 8 years. In case you'd like to argue that a bad baseball team will always win a higher % than a bad football team (generally true), let's go back to September:
Royals- 5.9 runs per game
Chiefs- 5.0 points per game
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Tigers should embrace the Big East
Well, someone has to be the last to write about Missouri, Kansas and Kansas State to the Big East. I know the story has been discussed, but my question is more about the discussion of it than the story itself. Kansas and K-State fans seem to see this as a best case scenario (assuming Baylor doesn't save the Big 12), while the reaction of the Missouri fan base seems to be the exact opposite. Two quick thoughts on this:
1. I thought last year's runaround from the Big 10(12) might have lowered the self-perception in Columbia down to a more realistic level...but I guess not. I don't dispute that the Tigers are the most attractive of the three schools, I'm just not sure that's getting you invited to the Big 10(12) or the SEC anytime soon.
2. Why in the world do the Tigers want to go to those places anyway? Prestige? Winning gets you prestige. Just for a moment, where do the Tigers fit in the SEC? Below Alabama, Florida, LSU and Auburn, right? Tennessee and Georgia have been down...but history tells us they'll rise again. Comfortably ahead of Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt...which leaves us Arkansas, South Carolina (as long as the OBC is there) and Ole Miss as Missouri's peers in the SEC. In other words, the Tigers are within a game or two of .500 team most years, certainly not the level of prestige they've built in the Big 12.
On the other hand, they could preserve their rivalries with Kansas and K-State and move into a football conference with a BCS slot that they would have a legitimate shot at winning each season. The article I linked above projects a western division of the Big East as MU, KU, KSU, Louisville, Cincinnati, and TCU. IMO, that's a more accurate reflection of where the Tigers belong...and where they can succeed.
Is mediocrity in the SEC better than success in the Big East? Not if they both lead to the same BCS or playoff system. Not with the Big East getting ready to renegotiate their TV deal in 2012. Certainly not if you measure success in conference championships, BCS bowl games or (dare to dream) National Championships. It may seem unlikely, but the path to greatness for the Tigers lies not in the greatest conference in college football...but in the greatest opportunity.
1. I thought last year's runaround from the Big 10(12) might have lowered the self-perception in Columbia down to a more realistic level...but I guess not. I don't dispute that the Tigers are the most attractive of the three schools, I'm just not sure that's getting you invited to the Big 10(12) or the SEC anytime soon.
2. Why in the world do the Tigers want to go to those places anyway? Prestige? Winning gets you prestige. Just for a moment, where do the Tigers fit in the SEC? Below Alabama, Florida, LSU and Auburn, right? Tennessee and Georgia have been down...but history tells us they'll rise again. Comfortably ahead of Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt...which leaves us Arkansas, South Carolina (as long as the OBC is there) and Ole Miss as Missouri's peers in the SEC. In other words, the Tigers are within a game or two of .500 team most years, certainly not the level of prestige they've built in the Big 12.
On the other hand, they could preserve their rivalries with Kansas and K-State and move into a football conference with a BCS slot that they would have a legitimate shot at winning each season. The article I linked above projects a western division of the Big East as MU, KU, KSU, Louisville, Cincinnati, and TCU. IMO, that's a more accurate reflection of where the Tigers belong...and where they can succeed.
Is mediocrity in the SEC better than success in the Big East? Not if they both lead to the same BCS or playoff system. Not with the Big East getting ready to renegotiate their TV deal in 2012. Certainly not if you measure success in conference championships, BCS bowl games or (dare to dream) National Championships. It may seem unlikely, but the path to greatness for the Tigers lies not in the greatest conference in college football...but in the greatest opportunity.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
My Life as a Romantic Comedy?
In ’97 we had everything. She was my desire and I had the talent and ambition to fulfill her every need…and then I met Jim Beam. Is it a story that’s been told a thousand times? Sure but a Sigmund Bloom tweet brought it all back to the forefront…and brought me back to the one that got away.
In the beginning I was too arrogant, too lazy, and far too distractable to deserve the object of my affection, and it took me less than 5 months at the University of Missouri to prove it. While she was begging me to go to class I was running bets for a local bookie and staying up until 3 in the morning playing Madden for $100 a game. I went there with a dream and came home knowing it was not my talent that failed, but far worse, my work ethic. I was the Jamarcus Russell of sports journalism and Beam was my Codeine.
After two years as a car salesman I saw her again from a distance and couldn’t resist the urge to chase…she still had it. Before I knew it my sole employment was announcing small town high school football and basketball games at KDKD 95.3 and trying to sell ads in a market that you couldn’t even hear the station. The laziness was no longer a problem as I knew how lucky I was to have a second chance. I gave her everything I had, and she gave me $25 a game and diminishing commissions (Don Draper, I was not). Maybe she was trying to punish me for sins of the past, but she made it pretty much impossible to support my kids and, regrettably, I had to stop chasing.
Then there’s this place... KCSportsReport. In its initial incarnation it was (supposed to be) less blog and more RSS feed (before such a thing existed) for all things KC Sports. The feedback I got was that people wanted more original content which led to this article that actually ended up on Tigerboard.com. That was maybe the apex of our relationship. Feedback from the article was venomous (but at least that means they read it) and I was on top of the world. Then of course, she disappeared and with her my readers.
That's the thing about this slightly sickening chain of events. In the time that I've failed and been failed, I've watched Bill Simmons go from blogger to Multi-Media Mogul. Now, obviously he has ridiculous talent but I've also watched guys like Nick Wright become sports talk radio hosts...and freaking Fake Ned Yost become a pop culture icon here in KC. Yet here I go again...
This isn't the first time (or second or third) that I've tried to fire this blog back up, and in reality Bloom's tweet probably received hundreds of applications from semi-bloggers like myself. But the characters don't write the script. I'll start blogging again and we'll leave it up to Bloom and the rest of footballguys.com to decide if my life is indeed a romantic comedy or just another Willie Nelson song (I've almost a box set).
In the beginning I was too arrogant, too lazy, and far too distractable to deserve the object of my affection, and it took me less than 5 months at the University of Missouri to prove it. While she was begging me to go to class I was running bets for a local bookie and staying up until 3 in the morning playing Madden for $100 a game. I went there with a dream and came home knowing it was not my talent that failed, but far worse, my work ethic. I was the Jamarcus Russell of sports journalism and Beam was my Codeine.
After two years as a car salesman I saw her again from a distance and couldn’t resist the urge to chase…she still had it. Before I knew it my sole employment was announcing small town high school football and basketball games at KDKD 95.3 and trying to sell ads in a market that you couldn’t even hear the station. The laziness was no longer a problem as I knew how lucky I was to have a second chance. I gave her everything I had, and she gave me $25 a game and diminishing commissions (Don Draper, I was not). Maybe she was trying to punish me for sins of the past, but she made it pretty much impossible to support my kids and, regrettably, I had to stop chasing.
Then there’s this place... KCSportsReport. In its initial incarnation it was (supposed to be) less blog and more RSS feed (before such a thing existed) for all things KC Sports. The feedback I got was that people wanted more original content which led to this article that actually ended up on Tigerboard.com. That was maybe the apex of our relationship. Feedback from the article was venomous (but at least that means they read it) and I was on top of the world. Then of course, she disappeared and with her my readers.
That's the thing about this slightly sickening chain of events. In the time that I've failed and been failed, I've watched Bill Simmons go from blogger to Multi-Media Mogul. Now, obviously he has ridiculous talent but I've also watched guys like Nick Wright become sports talk radio hosts...and freaking Fake Ned Yost become a pop culture icon here in KC. Yet here I go again...
This isn't the first time (or second or third) that I've tried to fire this blog back up, and in reality Bloom's tweet probably received hundreds of applications from semi-bloggers like myself. But the characters don't write the script. I'll start blogging again and we'll leave it up to Bloom and the rest of footballguys.com to decide if my life is indeed a romantic comedy or just another Willie Nelson song (I've almost a box set).
Monday, June 8, 2009
Dayton, year 2
As the abomination of a season continues for the Royals, I take a look at year two's worth of choices in the Dayton Moore regime. While Moore's first year seemed to be filled with a trade every other week the second is more defined by his free agents and their (lack of) success. First, starting where I did last year, a look at the first 4 picks of the first draft that Dayton actually takes credit for:
Round 1- #2 overall- Mike Moustakas- After a terrible start to last year, Moustakas really turned it on and ended up leading his league in home runs with 22. This year he's hitting .263 with 7 home runs and 35 RBI in 49 games. Everyone says that this guy, being a high school draftee, will take 3-4 years before he's ready for the bigs...well we're half way through year 2, shouldn't he at least be in AA?
Round 2-#66 overall- Sam Runion- 7.26 ERA in Low A ball...that's terrible even for a 20 year old. 20 Ks and 14 BB in 48 innings this year.
Round 3- #96 overall- Danny Duffy- Now this is what you expect out of a Dayton Moore draft pick. Dominating Low A ball for two years in a row now, 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA striking out almost a batter an inning...get this guy moving!
Round 4-#126 overall- Mitch Hodge- Disappeared from the baseball landscape after posting a 9.79 ERA in the Arizona rookie league last year. Maybe is only playing Rookie ball again? Regardless, not a good sign.
Trades
Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies- Fantastic start to year 2 for Dayton Moore right? Dotel injured himself almost immediately and Davies became...well...what has Kyle Davies become? According to Baseball-Reference the closest thing to Davies is...wait for it...Runelvys Hernandez! This is really the make or break year for Davies and so far he's 2-5 with a 5+ ERA. I'd say he's a legitimate #5 starter if he can learn to eat innings.
Danny Christensen for Roman Colon- Christensen is still struggling through AA with the Tigers while Colon has finally made it back to the Bigs with the Royals. Colon hasn't done enough to call this a win yet, pretty irrelevant really.
Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo- Last year I thought this was a terrible trade...last month I thought it was fantastic...now I really don't know what to think. Callaspo has proven several times in the past that his off field decision making leaves much to be desired. Now that he's playing full time I think we can say the same for his baseball instincts. He really isn't fast, he has little power...but he can put the bat on the ball...that's not disputable. Buckner is a 26 year old pitcher with a career 4.86 ERA who has just been given a chance as a starter for the Diamondbacks.
Justin Huber for player to be named later- Anything we got for this Aussie was worth it.
Jorge De La Rosa and cash for Ramon Ramirez- Officially the Royals traded a player to be named later for Ram Ram and then weeks later traded De La Rosa for a player to be names later. Why? I have no idea, but no matter how you slice it, this was probably Dayton's best trade of year 2. Ram Ram was dominant in 2008 and then the Royals turned him into Coco Crisp, DeLa Rosa has been exactly what we thought he was: an enigma. 10-8 in 2008 with a 4.92, 0-6 in 2009 with a 5.43 ERA...not terrible, but not near as good as Ramirez was.
Henry Arias for Brad Salmon- Arias is a 24 year old pitcher in High A ball with an ERA around 7, Salmon's almost 30 and no longer still in the minors...but not with the Royals...in other words, irrelevant.
While year two was much less active, it was also much more productive. Looks to me like 2 wins, no real losses, one trade that's TBD (Callaspo/Buckner) and three that mean nothing at all. That brings Dayton's record through two year's to 4-4-10...pretty inconclusive. However, year two's class of free agent signings sheds a little (or a lot) of light on the Royals problems.
Yasuhiko Yabuta 2 Yrs $5 million- Yabuta's early season struggles were at least a part of the Royals' collapse last season. This year he gets passed over by the likes of Roman Colon when the Royals need a quick fix in the bullpen. Terrible signing.
Jose Guillen 3 yrs $36 million- Last year Guillen hit .264 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI...this year he's on pace for a much worse season. That's not to mention his terrible defense, his clubhouse outbursts, or his complete lack of speed on the base paths. Jose Guillen is a player that took steroids to become a slightly above average player and without them he's just very very average. This signing wasn't terrible, but it certainly isn't good.
Ron Mahay 2 yrs- Mahay made $4 million last year and he was definitely worth it. One thing Dayton Moore has been able to do is find relievers in bunches. Hopefully Mahay is one that he can trade this summer...and hopefully it'll be more successful than the Affeldt/Howell trades of year 1.
Miguel Olivo 1 yr $2 million- I never understood why we were spending money on a backup catcher when we already had one. Olivo has a great arm but that's about the only thing he offers that Buck doesn't. This move doesn't kill us...by itself.
Brett Tomko 1 yr $3 million- Tomko was so terrible the Royals released him on June 21 of last year, and we know how hard it is for the Royals to give up on someone they've invested in.
Brayan Pena waivers- I think Pena was a really good signing...if they hadn't just spent 2 million on Olivo.
Anyways, you're looking at about $25 million (or 40% of our 2008 payroll) for this group of players. Once again, yes we improved, but did we improve enough to justify the money we spent? Doesn't seem so to me. In year two I see further example that David Glass is making more of a commitment to make this team better while Dayton Moore may well be squandering that opportunity with poor decision making.
Round 1- #2 overall- Mike Moustakas- After a terrible start to last year, Moustakas really turned it on and ended up leading his league in home runs with 22. This year he's hitting .263 with 7 home runs and 35 RBI in 49 games. Everyone says that this guy, being a high school draftee, will take 3-4 years before he's ready for the bigs...well we're half way through year 2, shouldn't he at least be in AA?
Round 2-#66 overall- Sam Runion- 7.26 ERA in Low A ball...that's terrible even for a 20 year old. 20 Ks and 14 BB in 48 innings this year.
Round 3- #96 overall- Danny Duffy- Now this is what you expect out of a Dayton Moore draft pick. Dominating Low A ball for two years in a row now, 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA striking out almost a batter an inning...get this guy moving!
Round 4-#126 overall- Mitch Hodge- Disappeared from the baseball landscape after posting a 9.79 ERA in the Arizona rookie league last year. Maybe is only playing Rookie ball again? Regardless, not a good sign.
Trades
Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies- Fantastic start to year 2 for Dayton Moore right? Dotel injured himself almost immediately and Davies became...well...what has Kyle Davies become? According to Baseball-Reference the closest thing to Davies is...wait for it...Runelvys Hernandez! This is really the make or break year for Davies and so far he's 2-5 with a 5+ ERA. I'd say he's a legitimate #5 starter if he can learn to eat innings.
Danny Christensen for Roman Colon- Christensen is still struggling through AA with the Tigers while Colon has finally made it back to the Bigs with the Royals. Colon hasn't done enough to call this a win yet, pretty irrelevant really.
Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo- Last year I thought this was a terrible trade...last month I thought it was fantastic...now I really don't know what to think. Callaspo has proven several times in the past that his off field decision making leaves much to be desired. Now that he's playing full time I think we can say the same for his baseball instincts. He really isn't fast, he has little power...but he can put the bat on the ball...that's not disputable. Buckner is a 26 year old pitcher with a career 4.86 ERA who has just been given a chance as a starter for the Diamondbacks.
Justin Huber for player to be named later- Anything we got for this Aussie was worth it.
Jorge De La Rosa and cash for Ramon Ramirez- Officially the Royals traded a player to be named later for Ram Ram and then weeks later traded De La Rosa for a player to be names later. Why? I have no idea, but no matter how you slice it, this was probably Dayton's best trade of year 2. Ram Ram was dominant in 2008 and then the Royals turned him into Coco Crisp, DeLa Rosa has been exactly what we thought he was: an enigma. 10-8 in 2008 with a 4.92, 0-6 in 2009 with a 5.43 ERA...not terrible, but not near as good as Ramirez was.
Henry Arias for Brad Salmon- Arias is a 24 year old pitcher in High A ball with an ERA around 7, Salmon's almost 30 and no longer still in the minors...but not with the Royals...in other words, irrelevant.
While year two was much less active, it was also much more productive. Looks to me like 2 wins, no real losses, one trade that's TBD (Callaspo/Buckner) and three that mean nothing at all. That brings Dayton's record through two year's to 4-4-10...pretty inconclusive. However, year two's class of free agent signings sheds a little (or a lot) of light on the Royals problems.
Yasuhiko Yabuta 2 Yrs $5 million- Yabuta's early season struggles were at least a part of the Royals' collapse last season. This year he gets passed over by the likes of Roman Colon when the Royals need a quick fix in the bullpen. Terrible signing.
Jose Guillen 3 yrs $36 million- Last year Guillen hit .264 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI...this year he's on pace for a much worse season. That's not to mention his terrible defense, his clubhouse outbursts, or his complete lack of speed on the base paths. Jose Guillen is a player that took steroids to become a slightly above average player and without them he's just very very average. This signing wasn't terrible, but it certainly isn't good.
Ron Mahay 2 yrs- Mahay made $4 million last year and he was definitely worth it. One thing Dayton Moore has been able to do is find relievers in bunches. Hopefully Mahay is one that he can trade this summer...and hopefully it'll be more successful than the Affeldt/Howell trades of year 1.
Miguel Olivo 1 yr $2 million- I never understood why we were spending money on a backup catcher when we already had one. Olivo has a great arm but that's about the only thing he offers that Buck doesn't. This move doesn't kill us...by itself.
Brett Tomko 1 yr $3 million- Tomko was so terrible the Royals released him on June 21 of last year, and we know how hard it is for the Royals to give up on someone they've invested in.
Brayan Pena waivers- I think Pena was a really good signing...if they hadn't just spent 2 million on Olivo.
Anyways, you're looking at about $25 million (or 40% of our 2008 payroll) for this group of players. Once again, yes we improved, but did we improve enough to justify the money we spent? Doesn't seem so to me. In year two I see further example that David Glass is making more of a commitment to make this team better while Dayton Moore may well be squandering that opportunity with poor decision making.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Return to Futility
The title of this blog may have to do with the current state of our hapless Royals but it could also reflect my first blog post in 5 months. I'll address the latter before the former at least partially because the former makes me sick to my stomach. It seems blogging isn't for me because I can't pretend like a bunch of people are reading what I'm writing and I feel a little silly talking to my friends in the same pompous self serving way that most writers speak to their readers. So, generally, when I have something to blog about I find someone to call, and rant for 15 minutes...I get my fix and better yet don't have to worry about misspelling Jorge De La Rosa and hearing about from some DB that scours the internet looking for blog errors.
Regardless, I love my Royals...with every inch of me. It started when I was just a kid, sitting in my Poppy's truck every summer night listening to the game and inhaling his secondhand cigar smoke.
The problem is, well, I love the Royals...and some times that is enough to drive a guy insane. So, once again I believed again...only when I believe it's different, I buy in 100%..and then it comes crashing down. Well, this time when it came crashing down it was different...I just don't get it.
Three years ago we put our faith in a man named Dayton...to deliver us from the past transgressions of Herk and Allard, Glass and Muser, and all the people who'd wronged this great franchise in the past. Almost immediately, he was able to persuade Glass to pen his pocketbook and when he did we opened our hearts. We trusted again...things were going to be different...we had Alex Gordon and Billy Butler coming and Zack was getting his head right and we were going to spend money and in just a couple of years we'd be a contender...and not a flash-in-the-pan-2003-where-did-that-come-from contender, but a real, talented, bona fide contender. First there was Meche, then signs of brilliance from Zack, the arrival of Billy, a power hitting outfielder, Soria became a star, a left handed bat...and 2009 arrived...people were calling us a sleeper...the Royals! And they weren't laughing! So why is this happening? Why do we suck again?
That brings me to why I'm back...a three part series on the history of Dayton Moore as a General Manager. To this point I've only completed part one, so I don't know how this ends...then again, I'm looking at the same Royals you are...so I kind of do.
YEAR 1 DRAFT
That's right, despite what Dayton says, I'm holding him accountable for the 2006 draft. There is no way you take over a team and then let someone else draft for you...not when a farm system is as depleted as ours was at the time. Maybe he didn't have full control, but I'm only looking at the first 4 rounds which I assume he had at least a hand in. If nothing else, it's his staff that's (allegedly) developed these players.
Round 1- 1st over all- Luke Hochevar. I won't spend too long on Hoch, because we all know what he is (or at least looks like to this point): The quintessential AAAA pitcher. He's lights out in Omaha and lit up in the Bigs. I'm not giving up on him by any means, but I think best case scenario we're looking at a 3-4 starter...Jeff Suppan if you will. And that's best case. It bears mentioning that Hochevar is the only player from the last three drafts to sniff the majors thus far. That's not an indictment of Dayton, but...
Round 2- #45 overall- Jason Taylor- 21 year old 3rd baseman played all of last year for Class A Burlington Bees. Hit .242 with 17 Hrs and 58 RBI, stole 40 bases and struck out 97 times in 127 games. Has yet to play a game this season due to injuries. Not too far from where you'd expect him although you'd sure expect him to be in AA by next year if he's really a prospect.
Round 3- #77 overall Blake Wood- P (77)- 23 year old pitcher in AA is 2-3 with a 6.31 ERA this year. Last year he went 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA splitting time between A and AA. Struck out 139 in 144 innings and only walked 47.
Round 4- #107 overall Derrick Robinson OF (107)- 21 year old outfielder looks like he might as well be named Joey Gathright or Coco Crisp. Currently hitting .230 in A ball with 28 steals in 46 games...but only 6 extra base hits (all doubles) all year. Last year hit .245 with 62 stoles bases and 8 triples.
From the looks of it, we may have a couple of prospects, but no one that jumps out at you as maybe helping this year unless Hochevar figures something out fast. So the draft did nothing really to shape this team other than factoring in to our hole in the #5 spot of the rotation, next I though I'd look at what really excited me, Dayton's first year of trades:
JP Howell for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez- I was all over this deal at the time and quickly became a Gathright homer. However, looking in the rear view mirror...it looks like Dayton got worked over by the Devil Rays. Gathright spent two years bouncing between KC and Omaha before being released this past winter. While I'd still argue that the Royals would be a better team if they'd kept Gathright and Ramon Ramirez instead of trading for Coco (who is, essentially, the same player as Gathright with a little more pop)...the facts say his time in KC was a failure. He was signed by the Cubs and just recently traded to the Orioles (after hitting .214). Cortez played all of 8 games in a Royals uniform before being released a little over one year after the trade. He's now in AA with the White Sox. Howell on the other hand has turned into a fantastic reliever appearing in 64 games last year with a 2.22 ERA. This year he's been just as good and looks like he may get a shot at the Rays closer job...and he's still only 26. That's about as close to an F on a trade as you can get, but I did have a mancrush on Jumpin Joey Gathright...so we'll give it a D.
Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger- This one probably doesn't amount to much, but I liked Gotay. He spent 2007 with the Mets hitting .295 in 98 games with the Mets. Then he was claimed off waivers by the Braves and hit .235 in 88 games with the Braves mostly as a backup/pinch hitter. He's hitting .281 in AAA this year and as a 26 year old utility infielder I'd guess he'll get another shot. Now, it turns out, a 26 year old utility infielder is exactly what we got for him...but we traded him before the 2007 season. Since then Keppinger's started 192 games at 6 different positions with the Reds and Astros. He's becoming the Spork...anyways, like I said, this trade probably doesn't matter much other than it makes no sense why we ever made this trade. If Dayton really liked Kepp so much, why trade him so soon? If he didn't why trade the same player (only 3 years younger) for him?
Mike MacDougal for Tyler Lumsden and Daniel Cortes- Here's the trade where we really pulled one over on the Sox right? We all knew MacDougal couldn't hold it together and we got two of their best pitching prospects. Only, once again...this trade probably doesn't really matter much...at least not yet. Mike was money the rest of 2006 for the Sox, terrible in 2007, only appeared in 16 games in 2008 and then exploded this year before being released. He's been picked up by the Nationals, and may resurrect his career but overall the White Sox got slightly less than one great year from MacDougal and slightly more than one terrible year from him. What did the Royals get? Well, Lumsden is now a reliever for the Astros AAA club,we traded him this winter for outfielder Jordan Parraz (more on him in the year three evaluation). Cortes is still just 22, right now he's 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA, last year he was 10-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 109 Ks in 116 innings. He's still one of our best pitching prospects. How do you call that one? Hard to say either team won until we see what happens with Cortes.
Elmer Dessens for Cash, Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel- We may have found a winner. Essentially, the Royals got two prospects for agreeing to eat Perez's contract I think. In return, Perez ate everything in sight. So maybe that was part of the deal but I cursed his fat Latino butt many a time at the K. Despite is 10-15 record, his 5.6 ERA and his devastating effect on the Royals food budget, this trade could still work out well for the Royals. Dessens has yet to post an ERA under 6 since 2006, while the two prospects received for him are still in the Royals system. Johnson (turning 24 this month) is in AA with Pimentel (also 24 and a 2008 Futures Game participant) who is recovering from an elbow injury. Considering how terrible Dessens was, and that the Royals still have 2 24 year old pitchers from the deal, I'd call this a win.
Tony Graffanino for Jorge De La Rosa- Pretty much irrelevant. Graffanino has put together a few more years as a average backup infielder, De La Rosa put together a year and half's worth of Odalis Perez like years before the Royals shipped him off to the Rockies for what I believe ended up being a trade for Ramon Ramirez. In this way, the trade becomes significant and the Royals I would say won this trade, because the possibility of De La Rosa's talent landed them a quality reliever which is more than Graff was worth.
Matt Stairs for Jose Diaz- Stairs went has continued his career as a journeyman power hitter with the Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays and Phillies. The Rangers in fact traded him later that same season. In other words, he was much more successful than Diaz who pitched 4 games with the Royals (allowing 8 runs in 6.2 innings) and was released.
Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann- Why could we never figure Jeremy Affeldt out? He's become a journeyman reliever (3.51 ERA in 75 games for Rockies in 2007, 3.33 in 74 games for Reds in 2008, 1.93 in 27 games so far for Giants in 2009) which is more than you can say for anyone else involved in this trade. Dohmann put up a 7.99 ERA in 21 appearances before being released while Bautista and Shealy appear to be the AAAA players. Both sit in AAA right waiting for one more chance.
Cash for Jason LaRue- This started out as one of those player to be names later trades but eventually Larue proved to be so woefully ineffective that the Reds accepted cash...how much? I'd speculate very little. However, the enjoyment I received bellowing his nickname (Jason LaBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO) after every meager at bat was priceless.
Donnie Murphy for Cash- I wonder if this is the money we used to buy Larue?
Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister- Here's a winner! Burgos has been out of the majors since 2007 and per Milb.com is currently out of the minors as well. Meanwhile, Bannister is taking us on a roller coaster ride from fantastic to terrible and back again. Regardless, this is clearly the gem of Dayton Moore's first year as GM.
Andrew Sisco for Ross Gload- As much as I hate to admit it this trade was also a winner. While I got tired of watching Hillman run Ross Gload out there way too often, he's still been much more successful than Sisco who was so terrible in 2007 he was banished after 21 games and has yet to return to the majors.
Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger- So, Russ answers our question from earlier. Keppinger (essentially Gotay)was traded for a 22 year old infielder who never made it out of A ball and is now out of baseball.
Erik Cordier for TPJ- So far, Dayton has lucked out on this one. We all know what TPJ is, a decent fielding SS that the Royals believe can become an adequate hitter. With Aviles' injury problems it seems Pena will get every chance to prove them wrong again. Cordier had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and is now a 22 year old pitching prospect with a sub 3 ERA in A ball. At this point the Royals at least got a (arguable) major leaguer, but I'm afraid this one could turn into a very bad trade...we'll see.
Maxim St Pierre for Ben Hendrickson- Irrelevant...but Maxim St Pierre is one awesome name!
So by my count, the final record for Dayton Moore in year one looks like this:
Win- 2
Loss- 4
Irrelevant- 4
TBD- 2
What's disturbing to me isn't so much that he lost more often than he won (because even that is debatable) it's this: How many players that Dayton Moore traded for are helping the Royals in 2009? Only Bannister and Pena are on the active roster and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who'd tell you that Tony Pena Jr is any help at all. So out of all of the trades listed above, the only benefit the Royals have experience in 2-3 years is the services of their #4 (fine, you can call him a #3) starter. Now, how many players that the Royals traded away are helping someone else? JP Howell, for one, is a fantastic reliever for the Rays. Same could be said for Affeldt and the Giants. Keppinger is pseudo WIllie Bloomquist, Gathright will probably be for the Orioles what TPJ is for us, light hitting insurance against injury. My point isn't so much that Dayton threw away the future of the club, only that we certainly didn't improve ourselves through those first 12 months worth of trades...and the idea that we were improving was at least part of the reason we all trusted Dayton so much.
Finally, we come the signings from the first year
Gil Meche- 5 years $55 Million- I love this deal, I hope these recent back problems don't persist or we may be eating 40% with a pitcher who isn't worth a damn...but for the first half of this deal it's been a great signing.
Joakim Soria- Rule 5 Draft- Best move made in the entire Dayton Moore era much less year 1. In fact, maybe the best move in all of baseball that year...that is if The Mexicutioner's arm really is healed.
John Bale- 2 years $4million- Bale has pitched in 43 games over 3 years with an era in the mid 4s. Hard to fault Dayton for the injury problems. Then again, even when he's been healthy he's been mediocre. This year he's been terrible and I'd say we're due for another surgery soon.
Todd Wellemeyer, David Riske and Octavio Dotel were all signed to one year deals and all long gone now. Their signings and performance really add nothing to the discussion on Dayton Moore's first year(although Dotel's name will come up in year 2 discussions when Dayton turned him in to Kyle Davies).
Now I know at this point I've probably lost some of you, it may even seem like I'm trying to cast Dayton in a bad light...I'm not. I fully recognize that we went from 54 wins in 05 to 62 in 06, 69 in 07, and 75 in 08...that's improvement. My question is, how much of that is because of the fact that our payroll has ballooned from $47 million to $70 million? And that's what I'm trying to find out with this analysis. My grade for year one? At the time I would have given Dayton an A-, almost everything he did I was in love with. Now, with hindsight on my side I would have to give him a C+ because he made some fantastic moves (Bannister trade, Soria pick) he made some duds (Howell and Affeldt trades) and we've got several things riding on the future of a few prospects, but overall I'd say it was slightly above average...certainly not the Godsend we thought at the time.
Regardless, I love my Royals...with every inch of me. It started when I was just a kid, sitting in my Poppy's truck every summer night listening to the game and inhaling his secondhand cigar smoke.
The problem is, well, I love the Royals...and some times that is enough to drive a guy insane. So, once again I believed again...only when I believe it's different, I buy in 100%..and then it comes crashing down. Well, this time when it came crashing down it was different...I just don't get it.
Three years ago we put our faith in a man named Dayton...to deliver us from the past transgressions of Herk and Allard, Glass and Muser, and all the people who'd wronged this great franchise in the past. Almost immediately, he was able to persuade Glass to pen his pocketbook and when he did we opened our hearts. We trusted again...things were going to be different...we had Alex Gordon and Billy Butler coming and Zack was getting his head right and we were going to spend money and in just a couple of years we'd be a contender...and not a flash-in-the-pan-2003-where-did-that-come-from contender, but a real, talented, bona fide contender. First there was Meche, then signs of brilliance from Zack, the arrival of Billy, a power hitting outfielder, Soria became a star, a left handed bat...and 2009 arrived...people were calling us a sleeper...the Royals! And they weren't laughing! So why is this happening? Why do we suck again?
That brings me to why I'm back...a three part series on the history of Dayton Moore as a General Manager. To this point I've only completed part one, so I don't know how this ends...then again, I'm looking at the same Royals you are...so I kind of do.
YEAR 1 DRAFT
That's right, despite what Dayton says, I'm holding him accountable for the 2006 draft. There is no way you take over a team and then let someone else draft for you...not when a farm system is as depleted as ours was at the time. Maybe he didn't have full control, but I'm only looking at the first 4 rounds which I assume he had at least a hand in. If nothing else, it's his staff that's (allegedly) developed these players.
Round 1- 1st over all- Luke Hochevar. I won't spend too long on Hoch, because we all know what he is (or at least looks like to this point): The quintessential AAAA pitcher. He's lights out in Omaha and lit up in the Bigs. I'm not giving up on him by any means, but I think best case scenario we're looking at a 3-4 starter...Jeff Suppan if you will. And that's best case. It bears mentioning that Hochevar is the only player from the last three drafts to sniff the majors thus far. That's not an indictment of Dayton, but...
Round 2- #45 overall- Jason Taylor- 21 year old 3rd baseman played all of last year for Class A Burlington Bees. Hit .242 with 17 Hrs and 58 RBI, stole 40 bases and struck out 97 times in 127 games. Has yet to play a game this season due to injuries. Not too far from where you'd expect him although you'd sure expect him to be in AA by next year if he's really a prospect.
Round 3- #77 overall Blake Wood- P (77)- 23 year old pitcher in AA is 2-3 with a 6.31 ERA this year. Last year he went 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA splitting time between A and AA. Struck out 139 in 144 innings and only walked 47.
Round 4- #107 overall Derrick Robinson OF (107)- 21 year old outfielder looks like he might as well be named Joey Gathright or Coco Crisp. Currently hitting .230 in A ball with 28 steals in 46 games...but only 6 extra base hits (all doubles) all year. Last year hit .245 with 62 stoles bases and 8 triples.
From the looks of it, we may have a couple of prospects, but no one that jumps out at you as maybe helping this year unless Hochevar figures something out fast. So the draft did nothing really to shape this team other than factoring in to our hole in the #5 spot of the rotation, next I though I'd look at what really excited me, Dayton's first year of trades:
JP Howell for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez- I was all over this deal at the time and quickly became a Gathright homer. However, looking in the rear view mirror...it looks like Dayton got worked over by the Devil Rays. Gathright spent two years bouncing between KC and Omaha before being released this past winter. While I'd still argue that the Royals would be a better team if they'd kept Gathright and Ramon Ramirez instead of trading for Coco (who is, essentially, the same player as Gathright with a little more pop)...the facts say his time in KC was a failure. He was signed by the Cubs and just recently traded to the Orioles (after hitting .214). Cortez played all of 8 games in a Royals uniform before being released a little over one year after the trade. He's now in AA with the White Sox. Howell on the other hand has turned into a fantastic reliever appearing in 64 games last year with a 2.22 ERA. This year he's been just as good and looks like he may get a shot at the Rays closer job...and he's still only 26. That's about as close to an F on a trade as you can get, but I did have a mancrush on Jumpin Joey Gathright...so we'll give it a D.
Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger- This one probably doesn't amount to much, but I liked Gotay. He spent 2007 with the Mets hitting .295 in 98 games with the Mets. Then he was claimed off waivers by the Braves and hit .235 in 88 games with the Braves mostly as a backup/pinch hitter. He's hitting .281 in AAA this year and as a 26 year old utility infielder I'd guess he'll get another shot. Now, it turns out, a 26 year old utility infielder is exactly what we got for him...but we traded him before the 2007 season. Since then Keppinger's started 192 games at 6 different positions with the Reds and Astros. He's becoming the Spork...anyways, like I said, this trade probably doesn't matter much other than it makes no sense why we ever made this trade. If Dayton really liked Kepp so much, why trade him so soon? If he didn't why trade the same player (only 3 years younger) for him?
Mike MacDougal for Tyler Lumsden and Daniel Cortes- Here's the trade where we really pulled one over on the Sox right? We all knew MacDougal couldn't hold it together and we got two of their best pitching prospects. Only, once again...this trade probably doesn't really matter much...at least not yet. Mike was money the rest of 2006 for the Sox, terrible in 2007, only appeared in 16 games in 2008 and then exploded this year before being released. He's been picked up by the Nationals, and may resurrect his career but overall the White Sox got slightly less than one great year from MacDougal and slightly more than one terrible year from him. What did the Royals get? Well, Lumsden is now a reliever for the Astros AAA club,we traded him this winter for outfielder Jordan Parraz (more on him in the year three evaluation). Cortes is still just 22, right now he's 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA, last year he was 10-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 109 Ks in 116 innings. He's still one of our best pitching prospects. How do you call that one? Hard to say either team won until we see what happens with Cortes.
Elmer Dessens for Cash, Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel- We may have found a winner. Essentially, the Royals got two prospects for agreeing to eat Perez's contract I think. In return, Perez ate everything in sight. So maybe that was part of the deal but I cursed his fat Latino butt many a time at the K. Despite is 10-15 record, his 5.6 ERA and his devastating effect on the Royals food budget, this trade could still work out well for the Royals. Dessens has yet to post an ERA under 6 since 2006, while the two prospects received for him are still in the Royals system. Johnson (turning 24 this month) is in AA with Pimentel (also 24 and a 2008 Futures Game participant) who is recovering from an elbow injury. Considering how terrible Dessens was, and that the Royals still have 2 24 year old pitchers from the deal, I'd call this a win.
Tony Graffanino for Jorge De La Rosa- Pretty much irrelevant. Graffanino has put together a few more years as a average backup infielder, De La Rosa put together a year and half's worth of Odalis Perez like years before the Royals shipped him off to the Rockies for what I believe ended up being a trade for Ramon Ramirez. In this way, the trade becomes significant and the Royals I would say won this trade, because the possibility of De La Rosa's talent landed them a quality reliever which is more than Graff was worth.
Matt Stairs for Jose Diaz- Stairs went has continued his career as a journeyman power hitter with the Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays and Phillies. The Rangers in fact traded him later that same season. In other words, he was much more successful than Diaz who pitched 4 games with the Royals (allowing 8 runs in 6.2 innings) and was released.
Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann- Why could we never figure Jeremy Affeldt out? He's become a journeyman reliever (3.51 ERA in 75 games for Rockies in 2007, 3.33 in 74 games for Reds in 2008, 1.93 in 27 games so far for Giants in 2009) which is more than you can say for anyone else involved in this trade. Dohmann put up a 7.99 ERA in 21 appearances before being released while Bautista and Shealy appear to be the AAAA players. Both sit in AAA right waiting for one more chance.
Cash for Jason LaRue- This started out as one of those player to be names later trades but eventually Larue proved to be so woefully ineffective that the Reds accepted cash...how much? I'd speculate very little. However, the enjoyment I received bellowing his nickname (Jason LaBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO) after every meager at bat was priceless.
Donnie Murphy for Cash- I wonder if this is the money we used to buy Larue?
Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister- Here's a winner! Burgos has been out of the majors since 2007 and per Milb.com is currently out of the minors as well. Meanwhile, Bannister is taking us on a roller coaster ride from fantastic to terrible and back again. Regardless, this is clearly the gem of Dayton Moore's first year as GM.
Andrew Sisco for Ross Gload- As much as I hate to admit it this trade was also a winner. While I got tired of watching Hillman run Ross Gload out there way too often, he's still been much more successful than Sisco who was so terrible in 2007 he was banished after 21 games and has yet to return to the majors.
Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger- So, Russ answers our question from earlier. Keppinger (essentially Gotay)was traded for a 22 year old infielder who never made it out of A ball and is now out of baseball.
Erik Cordier for TPJ- So far, Dayton has lucked out on this one. We all know what TPJ is, a decent fielding SS that the Royals believe can become an adequate hitter. With Aviles' injury problems it seems Pena will get every chance to prove them wrong again. Cordier had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and is now a 22 year old pitching prospect with a sub 3 ERA in A ball. At this point the Royals at least got a (arguable) major leaguer, but I'm afraid this one could turn into a very bad trade...we'll see.
Maxim St Pierre for Ben Hendrickson- Irrelevant...but Maxim St Pierre is one awesome name!
So by my count, the final record for Dayton Moore in year one looks like this:
Win- 2
Loss- 4
Irrelevant- 4
TBD- 2
What's disturbing to me isn't so much that he lost more often than he won (because even that is debatable) it's this: How many players that Dayton Moore traded for are helping the Royals in 2009? Only Bannister and Pena are on the active roster and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who'd tell you that Tony Pena Jr is any help at all. So out of all of the trades listed above, the only benefit the Royals have experience in 2-3 years is the services of their #4 (fine, you can call him a #3) starter. Now, how many players that the Royals traded away are helping someone else? JP Howell, for one, is a fantastic reliever for the Rays. Same could be said for Affeldt and the Giants. Keppinger is pseudo WIllie Bloomquist, Gathright will probably be for the Orioles what TPJ is for us, light hitting insurance against injury. My point isn't so much that Dayton threw away the future of the club, only that we certainly didn't improve ourselves through those first 12 months worth of trades...and the idea that we were improving was at least part of the reason we all trusted Dayton so much.
Finally, we come the signings from the first year
Gil Meche- 5 years $55 Million- I love this deal, I hope these recent back problems don't persist or we may be eating 40% with a pitcher who isn't worth a damn...but for the first half of this deal it's been a great signing.
Joakim Soria- Rule 5 Draft- Best move made in the entire Dayton Moore era much less year 1. In fact, maybe the best move in all of baseball that year...that is if The Mexicutioner's arm really is healed.
John Bale- 2 years $4million- Bale has pitched in 43 games over 3 years with an era in the mid 4s. Hard to fault Dayton for the injury problems. Then again, even when he's been healthy he's been mediocre. This year he's been terrible and I'd say we're due for another surgery soon.
Todd Wellemeyer, David Riske and Octavio Dotel were all signed to one year deals and all long gone now. Their signings and performance really add nothing to the discussion on Dayton Moore's first year(although Dotel's name will come up in year 2 discussions when Dayton turned him in to Kyle Davies).
Now I know at this point I've probably lost some of you, it may even seem like I'm trying to cast Dayton in a bad light...I'm not. I fully recognize that we went from 54 wins in 05 to 62 in 06, 69 in 07, and 75 in 08...that's improvement. My question is, how much of that is because of the fact that our payroll has ballooned from $47 million to $70 million? And that's what I'm trying to find out with this analysis. My grade for year one? At the time I would have given Dayton an A-, almost everything he did I was in love with. Now, with hindsight on my side I would have to give him a C+ because he made some fantastic moves (Bannister trade, Soria pick) he made some duds (Howell and Affeldt trades) and we've got several things riding on the future of a few prospects, but overall I'd say it was slightly above average...certainly not the Godsend we thought at the time.
Friday, January 2, 2009
Dezmon Briscoe
What a stud! 15 TDs, over 1400 yards, 2 different 200 yard games? He doesn't get near the hype he deserves. Kansas fans had better enjoy him, because he's only got one year left before he's a first round draft pick.
I haven't posted on here forever, but I have 9 prognostications for 2009 I'd like to make while I'm here:
1. Bill Snyder's return will be less successful than Brett Favre's.
2. Oklahoma will win the National Title (but Texas and USC have fantastic arguments).
3. Peyton Manning leads the Colts to a Super Bowl victory over Carolina.
4. Herm Edwards returns for the start of the 2009 season.
5. The Royals win more than 81 games.
6. Missouri and Kansas both win at least 24 games and make the Sweet 16.
7. Brodie Croyle will never win a regular season game as a starter in the NFL.
8. The Chiefs will not draft a quarterback in the first round.
9. Alex Gordon will lead the Royals in extra base hits.
I haven't posted on here forever, but I have 9 prognostications for 2009 I'd like to make while I'm here:
1. Bill Snyder's return will be less successful than Brett Favre's.
2. Oklahoma will win the National Title (but Texas and USC have fantastic arguments).
3. Peyton Manning leads the Colts to a Super Bowl victory over Carolina.
4. Herm Edwards returns for the start of the 2009 season.
5. The Royals win more than 81 games.
6. Missouri and Kansas both win at least 24 games and make the Sweet 16.
7. Brodie Croyle will never win a regular season game as a starter in the NFL.
8. The Chiefs will not draft a quarterback in the first round.
9. Alex Gordon will lead the Royals in extra base hits.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Don't get too excited
Just as I've proven that a random post once a month doesn't mean I'm back for good, one drive does not make a football team. Yeah, I got excited by the Chiefs first drive of the 2008 preseason as well...yeah, for a minutes I thought maybe Brodie could be a legitimate NFL QB...I also felt like maybe Will Franklin could be a compliment to D-Bowe and Tony G... Those things being said, it was one drive in a game that doesn't count. Maybe I use all of my senseless optimism on the Royals, but I'm not ready to "Believe!" just quite yet. I will however postpone my prediction on the Chiefs record this year (although I'd pretty much settled on 4-12 again). If Brodie can play like he did last night, and Franklin can be a viable #2, and the line can come together...we might be an 8-8 team....that's why Carl(and Herm) must go. On the other hand, if you want senseless optimism about the Chiefs, you can always find it here.
In other news...
- Brett Favre is a Jet! Fantastic news for my Fantasy team, even better news for the J-E-T-S...I'm still astonished that Carl didn't make this move. The Chiefs would have instantly been a Wild Card contender, and sell outs would be guaranteed.
- Mike Aviles is our shortstop of the future? I know a lot of people think he makes a better second baseman, but from what I've seen it's a lot easier to find a quality second baseman. I like Aviles at short, and as a dark horse for Rookie of the Year.
- Ron Prince gets a 5 year extension!?!? Folks in Manhatten vehemently deny that Mangino and Pinkel bankrolled this extension. In all seriousness, first they lock up Martin and then Prince? Manhappy is going to need a lot of hard alcohol to stay that way.
In other news...
- Brett Favre is a Jet! Fantastic news for my Fantasy team, even better news for the J-E-T-S...I'm still astonished that Carl didn't make this move. The Chiefs would have instantly been a Wild Card contender, and sell outs would be guaranteed.
- Mike Aviles is our shortstop of the future? I know a lot of people think he makes a better second baseman, but from what I've seen it's a lot easier to find a quality second baseman. I like Aviles at short, and as a dark horse for Rookie of the Year.
- Ron Prince gets a 5 year extension!?!? Folks in Manhatten vehemently deny that Mangino and Pinkel bankrolled this extension. In all seriousness, first they lock up Martin and then Prince? Manhappy is going to need a lot of hard alcohol to stay that way.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Maybe I'm just not cut out for blogging
After all, I sure don't seem to have the time for it...or the stomach...or according to several of my readers, the "talent". But who needs talents? Tony Pena? Nope, but at least he doesn't start everyday anymore...Brodie Croyle? What for? He's already the starting quarterback for what's soon to be the laughingstock of the NFL.
Yeah, I guess you could say I'm a little disenchanted with the local "talent" on the professional sports scene...thank goodness it's almost college football season, there's no shortage of talent there.
Yeah, I guess you could say I'm a little disenchanted with the local "talent" on the professional sports scene...thank goodness it's almost college football season, there's no shortage of talent there.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
I'm looking smarter and smarter
On June 23rd, I thought we could win 12(maybe 15) of our last 20 before the break and get back into this thing. Some people laughed, others called me a homer...but we're 5-2 since then. What do the naysayers have to say now? Well, they're still naysayers...they'll tell you we're still 9.5 back of the White Sux (who've been red hot, winning 15 of 20). Or that both the Tigers and Twinkies have won eight of their last ten, so we haven't made up any ground on them either. They'll tell you this is a nice little hot streak, but our next cold streak is right around the corner. You know what the Kool Aid Drinker thinks? It doesn't matter what the White Sux, Twins, and Tigers are doing right now...the Royals control their own destiny...and not in that goofy "there are 80 games left" kind of way, but in a much less goofy "we play the Sux 15 more times, the Twins 9 more times, the Tigers 12 more times" kind of way. What does that mean? All the Royals need to do is keep fighting...get to .500 by the end of July (doable)...get to 5 games over by the end of August (doable)...Head into September with a fighter's chance and then we'll play whoever is ahead of us...there will be no way we can all be hot at the same time because we'll be playing each other. In other words, stop looking for the cloud in the silver lining, keep winning and we'll take care of those teams above us when we play them.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
We're out of the cellar!!!
Remember a couple of days ago when I talked about what a great opportunity the next 20 games were? Well, the Royals are 3-0 since then, out of the cellar and only 7 games out of first. Now we get the hated Cardinals with rumors that Poo Holes may be back for the weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if they're rushing him and he's completely ineffective...especially against Meche, Bannister and Davies. I can't stress enough how important it is that the Royals keep this momentum until the All Star break. With 17 games left, we need 12-5 to get back to .500...that's doable.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Are the Royals out of it?
No they aren't! I know we've got a nice little hot streak going, but it has a chance to turn into a nice LONG hot streak. We have 20 games left before the All Star break and 13 of them are against what I consider to be teams that are no better than our Royals (Rockies, Orioles, Mariners, and Cards w/o Pujols). The other 7 are against the D-Rays and ChiSox, two teams that have played over their heads so far this year. Win 12 of those (very doable) and we're still in this thing, just a couple of games below .500 at the break. Win 15 of them and we're back to .500 and Mr. Dayton Moore can start shopping. It all starts with the next 6 at home against the Rockies and Cards. We should win at least 4 of these...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
I don't get to post here much any more
That's the curse of being a successful little league manager I guess...but I have to say it...BREAK OUT THE BROOMS! I hate St Louis...not just the Cardinals, not just their fans, but the whole stinkin city...If Budweiser does indeed sell out there will be absolutely zero redeeming qualities about that place. If the Cardinals get swept at home by the Royals it will only add to what has thus far been the greatest sports year of my life, let's recap:
Kansas Jayhawk BCS victory
Kansas Jayhawk basketball National Championship
Boston Celtics NBA Finals with "The Truth" Paul Pierce winning MVP
Add a Royals sweep of the Cards...wow...what a year 2008 has been...and we're only halfway done.
Kansas Jayhawk BCS victory
Kansas Jayhawk basketball National Championship
Boston Celtics NBA Finals with "The Truth" Paul Pierce winning MVP
Add a Royals sweep of the Cards...wow...what a year 2008 has been...and we're only halfway done.
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