The Royals are currently in the 9th inning of their 4th game of the year, leading 7-5. While I'm the first to admit that 4 Spring Training games have very little meaning (Grudz and Guillen haven't even played yet), there are a few things that Royals fans can be encouraged by:
1. Luke Hochevar threw 2 more scoreless innings today; meaning his Spring Training stats look like this: 4 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 BB, 2 Ks. Again it's really early, but Trey Hillman said Hochevar would have to out-pitch a lot of his teammates to make the team...he's doing it so far. Is it better to have Hochevar in the rotation or the pen? Ideally I'd say the bullpen, and that answer has nothing to do with Luke at all. For him to make the rotation, a lot of guys are going to have to have a bad spring. I think it would be a lot better sign for the team if Hochevar pitches well enough to break camp with the club, but has to start in the pen because the guys they expect to start earn their spots.
2. DeJesus, Teahan, Gordon, and Butler are all hitting. These four guys all need to have better seasons than they did last year. They could all benefit from a confidence boost early in the year as well (although I think Butler's confidence will be fine regardless). I said at the beginning of the year that I wanted to see Butler and Gordon in the middle of the lineup, as long as they keep hitting the ball they may be. Just wait until Jose Guillen joins these guys in the lineup...
3. Speaking of Guillen, a recent article in Sports Illustrated that those listed in the Mitchell Report may get a fresh start, without punishment from Commissioner Bud Selig. Guillen's suspension is currently being appealed and this could be huge for the Royals. Those first 12 games (almost all against expected playoff contenders) would seem much less daunting with Guillen in the lineup.
Sure, the naysayers will tell you about Joakim Soria and Zack Greinke getting bombed in their first appearances...or about the atrocious infield defense...I'll leave those downers, and others, to them. To me, that's not what spring is about; Spring is about believing that Jose Guillen is worth $36 million. That not only can Meche, Bannister, and Soria repeat last year's success...but that they can improve upon it. That Billy Butler can learn to play 1st base. That Alex Gordon is the next George Brett. That if Trey Hillman can manage a team to a Japanese World Series, he can do the same here. Finally, and most importantly, that the misery is over...No more 100 loss seasons, no more out of contention by May, no more bad trades and worse drafts... Yeah, that's what Spring is about to the Kool Aid Drinker.
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Finally, the lineup
All of the focus it seems is on the pitching with the Royals this year...
Who will win the last two spots in the rotation?
Will Meche and Bannister be as good as last year?
Will Greinke finally turn into the stud we think he can be?
Can Yasuhiko Yabuta be the next great Japanese set up man?
How will the sophomore season of closer Joakim Soria go?
All of these questions and more are important. Heck, I won't even debate that pitching wins championships. Nope, no questioning the importance of pitching but there is one other thing you can't debate; you have to score runs to win...especially in the American League. How is this team going to do that? Last year the Royals finished 27th in the majors in runs scored, no matter how good the pitching is, that won't cut it...but there's reason for hope:
- Jose Guillen. I should be able to stop at the period, but there are enough naysayers out there, I'll offer this: Guillen would have been the best bat on the Royals last year, there's no reason to expect anything different this year. He gives this lineup a sense of legitimacy it didn't have last year...much like Gil Meche did for the rotation last year. Guillen will make Gordon, Butler, and Teahan better.
- Billy Butler drove in 52 runs(5th on the team) in only 329 at bats. Not a great percentage, but assuming he's closer to 550 at bats this season he should be more productive than any bat the Royals had last year. I think .320/25 HRs/90 RBI is a very realistic projection of Butler's sophomore year.
- No way Alex Gordon starts as bad as he did last year. After the break he hit .264 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 70 games. I think it's very possible that's we'll see him in the same 25 Homer 90 RBI ball park as Billy Butler.
- Trey Hillman has a new approach. I've heard this a lot, but I'm not sure exactly what it is. Regardless, it has to be better than Buddy Bell's approach...anything different is better. One thing I have heard is that he likes to manufacture runs and Joey Gathright could be a big part of that plan. Gathright's talent and speed is unquestionable, I just hope we've found someone who can hone it.
With that being said, here's the lineup I'd put out there 150 games a year:
CF Joey Gathright
LF David DeJesus
DH Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
C John Buck
1B Mark Teahan
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena Jr
Now I know a lot of you are wondering why Teahan and Grudz are at the bottom...I think we know what we have in these guys, decent hitters...consistent...solid...but not legitimate 2 and 3 hitters. We're hoping that Gordon and Butler can develop into middle of the order guys right? Why not start them there with some protection? Won't they see a lot more fastballs there then if they're hitting in front of TPJ? My case for Gathright? He's the only legit leadoff hitter we have and he hit .307 last year. More important than that? He's a raw talent. Yeah, he still needs polishing, but so did Willie Wilson, we've got to take a chance on raw talents like this and give them a chance to turn into what they could.
Now here is the lineup I expect...(once Guillen's suspension is over)
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
LF Mark Teahan
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena Jr
To me, that lineup isn't near as exciting. But what would be exciting is if Hillman chose a lineup and stuck with it. I understand he may be a tinkerer, but Buddy Bell's 'experimenting' with the lineup got very old and in my opinion was a detriment to the team.
What do I expect either of those lineups to do? Score more runs than last year. It seems to me that top 20 would be a nice improvement, and with our pitching top 15 could get us into the playoff race. I think both of those are possible, with Gordon and Butler turning into borderline superstars.
Who will win the last two spots in the rotation?
Will Meche and Bannister be as good as last year?
Will Greinke finally turn into the stud we think he can be?
Can Yasuhiko Yabuta be the next great Japanese set up man?
How will the sophomore season of closer Joakim Soria go?
All of these questions and more are important. Heck, I won't even debate that pitching wins championships. Nope, no questioning the importance of pitching but there is one other thing you can't debate; you have to score runs to win...especially in the American League. How is this team going to do that? Last year the Royals finished 27th in the majors in runs scored, no matter how good the pitching is, that won't cut it...but there's reason for hope:
- Jose Guillen. I should be able to stop at the period, but there are enough naysayers out there, I'll offer this: Guillen would have been the best bat on the Royals last year, there's no reason to expect anything different this year. He gives this lineup a sense of legitimacy it didn't have last year...much like Gil Meche did for the rotation last year. Guillen will make Gordon, Butler, and Teahan better.
- Billy Butler drove in 52 runs(5th on the team) in only 329 at bats. Not a great percentage, but assuming he's closer to 550 at bats this season he should be more productive than any bat the Royals had last year. I think .320/25 HRs/90 RBI is a very realistic projection of Butler's sophomore year.
- No way Alex Gordon starts as bad as he did last year. After the break he hit .264 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 70 games. I think it's very possible that's we'll see him in the same 25 Homer 90 RBI ball park as Billy Butler.
- Trey Hillman has a new approach. I've heard this a lot, but I'm not sure exactly what it is. Regardless, it has to be better than Buddy Bell's approach...anything different is better. One thing I have heard is that he likes to manufacture runs and Joey Gathright could be a big part of that plan. Gathright's talent and speed is unquestionable, I just hope we've found someone who can hone it.
With that being said, here's the lineup I'd put out there 150 games a year:
CF Joey Gathright
LF David DeJesus
DH Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
C John Buck
1B Mark Teahan
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena Jr
Now I know a lot of you are wondering why Teahan and Grudz are at the bottom...I think we know what we have in these guys, decent hitters...consistent...solid...but not legitimate 2 and 3 hitters. We're hoping that Gordon and Butler can develop into middle of the order guys right? Why not start them there with some protection? Won't they see a lot more fastballs there then if they're hitting in front of TPJ? My case for Gathright? He's the only legit leadoff hitter we have and he hit .307 last year. More important than that? He's a raw talent. Yeah, he still needs polishing, but so did Willie Wilson, we've got to take a chance on raw talents like this and give them a chance to turn into what they could.
Now here is the lineup I expect...(once Guillen's suspension is over)
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
LF Mark Teahan
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena Jr
To me, that lineup isn't near as exciting. But what would be exciting is if Hillman chose a lineup and stuck with it. I understand he may be a tinkerer, but Buddy Bell's 'experimenting' with the lineup got very old and in my opinion was a detriment to the team.
What do I expect either of those lineups to do? Score more runs than last year. It seems to me that top 20 would be a nice improvement, and with our pitching top 15 could get us into the playoff race. I think both of those are possible, with Gordon and Butler turning into borderline superstars.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Pitchers and Catchers Report!
Today it all begins...no, not the Roger Clemens (alleged) perjury debacle...although that is a developing story that the Kool Aid Drinker is following closely, and you can too here. Nope, as big as the congressional hearing is, it's small potatoes compared to what starts today (officially) in Surprise, Arizona:
The Resurrection of the Royals... Led by Trey Hillman, orchestrated by Dayton Moore and brought to life by the likes of Awesome Alex Gordon and Bad Ass Billy Butler, this is finally the year that Kansas City returns to the baseball glory of the 70s and 80s. How? With pitching of course. That being said, the Kool Aid Drinker opens Spring Training with his look at the pitching staff...
(ed. note- This was originally going to be about the entire staff, but I wrote way too much on the starting rotation, and decided to save the Bullpen for Sunday.)
Rotation
There are three locks here; Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke. What I'm hoping is that Greinke and Bannister both out-perform Meche who is a pretty good bet to be between a 3.75 and 4.25 ERA. I'd assume that conventional wisdom indicates that Bannister has a slight dropoff as the league now has a book on him, but by the same token I think it's possible that Greinke has a breakout season, and if he gets run support and stays healthy he may approach 20 wins. In last week's blog I wrote that I expected Brett Tomko and De La Rosa to take the last two spots and I still think they're the favorites. Tomko, because that's what the Royals signed him for and I think he'd have to lose the job, De La Rosa because the Royals want a lefty starter and I think John Bale is better served as a reliever. But there are other candidates...
Kyle Davies- Probably has the best stuff, and I predicted earlier that he'd take Tomko's spot in May...Billy Butler said Davies looked really good at Winter Ball.
Luke Hochevar- This is best case scenario, he's 24 and a former first round pick...I think it's a bad sign if we don't see him in the majors at some point this season, but more likely it will be after the All Star Break.
Tyler Lumsden- Another guy battling with De La Rosa and Bale for the lefty spot...also 24 years old...also probably starts in Omaha.
Leo Nunez- Leave this guy in the bullpen.
Hideo "Nomo Mr. Nice Guy"- This is where things get interesting, the non-roster invitees. Noma was terrible (9-19, 7+ ERA) in 2004 and 2005 and then took 2 years off. This would be a national story if he makes the rotation.
Brian Lawrence- Lawrence also missed 2006, and was terrible in six games in 2007. But he was above average at one point and is only 31. I'd say his odds are much better than Nomo's and if given a chance he could challenge for a spot.
Ben Hendrickson- Okay, this is a stretch. He's a 27 year old righty with a 7.41 ERA in 12 career starts.
and the official Kool Aid Drinker Dark Horse Award goes to...
Mike Maroth- Yes, that Mike Maroth. If you didn't pay attention last year you'd probably wonder how the Royals signed Maroth to a minor league deal. Hop into the Kool Aid Drinker Time Machine and we'll take you back to 2006....
Maroth entered 2006 (his 5th in the majors) having won more games in each of his first four major league seasons, he was 28, he was ready to "Gil Meche" if you will. He started hot before hurting his elbow, having surgery and missing 3 months of the season. Still, he came back in 2007 and started 5-2 (albeit with a 5.06 ERA) before being traded to the hated Cardinals. Well, Maroth did what any self respecting heterosexual man would do upon being traded to St. Louis, he bombed...and when I say bombed I mean 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA... He went 2006 Joe Mays on them. So why is he my dark horse? He's a lefty with good enough stuff that he was once a great prospect, who had an injury, bombed for the most hated team this side of the Yankees and now Dayton Moore has picked him up off the scrap heap. What's not to like? Add to that that Bob McClure is already fixing his delivery and he has his own blog...Yep, that seals it, the Kool Aid Drinker is a member of the Mike Maroth fan club...now I just need a nickname for him...
Projected Opening Day Rotation
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Brett Tomko
Mike Maroth
In line...
Brian Lawrence
Kyle Davies
Luke Hochevar
Tyler Lumsden
(ed. note- Someone asked "You state De La Rose is a favorite, but then don't mention him here?" Well, yeah. I think he is the favorite for the lefty spot coming into camp but I think his control issues dictate he'll either end up in the bullpen or out of the equation altogether...I hope I'm wrong but he was bad at the end of last year, his ERA rising from 4.65 to 5.82 after June 5.)
The Resurrection of the Royals... Led by Trey Hillman, orchestrated by Dayton Moore and brought to life by the likes of Awesome Alex Gordon and Bad Ass Billy Butler, this is finally the year that Kansas City returns to the baseball glory of the 70s and 80s. How? With pitching of course. That being said, the Kool Aid Drinker opens Spring Training with his look at the pitching staff...
(ed. note- This was originally going to be about the entire staff, but I wrote way too much on the starting rotation, and decided to save the Bullpen for Sunday.)
Rotation
There are three locks here; Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke. What I'm hoping is that Greinke and Bannister both out-perform Meche who is a pretty good bet to be between a 3.75 and 4.25 ERA. I'd assume that conventional wisdom indicates that Bannister has a slight dropoff as the league now has a book on him, but by the same token I think it's possible that Greinke has a breakout season, and if he gets run support and stays healthy he may approach 20 wins. In last week's blog I wrote that I expected Brett Tomko and De La Rosa to take the last two spots and I still think they're the favorites. Tomko, because that's what the Royals signed him for and I think he'd have to lose the job, De La Rosa because the Royals want a lefty starter and I think John Bale is better served as a reliever. But there are other candidates...
Kyle Davies- Probably has the best stuff, and I predicted earlier that he'd take Tomko's spot in May...Billy Butler said Davies looked really good at Winter Ball.
Luke Hochevar- This is best case scenario, he's 24 and a former first round pick...I think it's a bad sign if we don't see him in the majors at some point this season, but more likely it will be after the All Star Break.
Tyler Lumsden- Another guy battling with De La Rosa and Bale for the lefty spot...also 24 years old...also probably starts in Omaha.
Leo Nunez- Leave this guy in the bullpen.
Hideo "Nomo Mr. Nice Guy"- This is where things get interesting, the non-roster invitees. Noma was terrible (9-19, 7+ ERA) in 2004 and 2005 and then took 2 years off. This would be a national story if he makes the rotation.
Brian Lawrence- Lawrence also missed 2006, and was terrible in six games in 2007. But he was above average at one point and is only 31. I'd say his odds are much better than Nomo's and if given a chance he could challenge for a spot.
Ben Hendrickson- Okay, this is a stretch. He's a 27 year old righty with a 7.41 ERA in 12 career starts.
and the official Kool Aid Drinker Dark Horse Award goes to...
Mike Maroth- Yes, that Mike Maroth. If you didn't pay attention last year you'd probably wonder how the Royals signed Maroth to a minor league deal. Hop into the Kool Aid Drinker Time Machine and we'll take you back to 2006....
Maroth entered 2006 (his 5th in the majors) having won more games in each of his first four major league seasons, he was 28, he was ready to "Gil Meche" if you will. He started hot before hurting his elbow, having surgery and missing 3 months of the season. Still, he came back in 2007 and started 5-2 (albeit with a 5.06 ERA) before being traded to the hated Cardinals. Well, Maroth did what any self respecting heterosexual man would do upon being traded to St. Louis, he bombed...and when I say bombed I mean 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA... He went 2006 Joe Mays on them. So why is he my dark horse? He's a lefty with good enough stuff that he was once a great prospect, who had an injury, bombed for the most hated team this side of the Yankees and now Dayton Moore has picked him up off the scrap heap. What's not to like? Add to that that Bob McClure is already fixing his delivery and he has his own blog...Yep, that seals it, the Kool Aid Drinker is a member of the Mike Maroth fan club...now I just need a nickname for him...
Projected Opening Day Rotation
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Brett Tomko
Mike Maroth
In line...
Brian Lawrence
Kyle Davies
Luke Hochevar
Tyler Lumsden
(ed. note- Someone asked "You state De La Rose is a favorite, but then don't mention him here?" Well, yeah. I think he is the favorite for the lefty spot coming into camp but I think his control issues dictate he'll either end up in the bullpen or out of the equation altogether...I hope I'm wrong but he was bad at the end of last year, his ERA rising from 4.65 to 5.82 after June 5.)
Monday, January 28, 2008
Randomness
Not much going on today, so just a few quick thoughts:
- The Tigers lose even when they win. Arguably the best player on the team, Stefhon Hannah ended up in the hospital after an altercation at a Columbia night club Saturday night. I'm not one to chastise college kids for going clubbing, or celebrating. But these incidents are becoming far too common for Mike Anderson's team. Without Hannah the Tigers may challenge Colorado, Nebraska and Oklahoma State for the cellar in the Big 12.
- Michael Beasley keeps talking trash about Wednesday's match up with Kansas. I'll have more on this Wednesday in the Sunflower Showdown preview, but I'll say this now: Beasley is making it fun, and adding to the excitement...but I'd be nervous if I were A Wildcat fan.
- Heard Billy Butler on 810 late last week. The young slugger sounds optimistic (of course) but he did make one bold prediction: Kyle Davies in the starting rotation. With Bannister, Meche and Greinke all assured spots Davies is in a dog fight with several veterans and younger players. Butler apparently saw Davies in the Dominican League this winter and said he really looked sharp. I hope he's right.
- The Tigers lose even when they win. Arguably the best player on the team, Stefhon Hannah ended up in the hospital after an altercation at a Columbia night club Saturday night. I'm not one to chastise college kids for going clubbing, or celebrating. But these incidents are becoming far too common for Mike Anderson's team. Without Hannah the Tigers may challenge Colorado, Nebraska and Oklahoma State for the cellar in the Big 12.
- Michael Beasley keeps talking trash about Wednesday's match up with Kansas. I'll have more on this Wednesday in the Sunflower Showdown preview, but I'll say this now: Beasley is making it fun, and adding to the excitement...but I'd be nervous if I were A Wildcat fan.
- Heard Billy Butler on 810 late last week. The young slugger sounds optimistic (of course) but he did make one bold prediction: Kyle Davies in the starting rotation. With Bannister, Meche and Greinke all assured spots Davies is in a dog fight with several veterans and younger players. Butler apparently saw Davies in the Dominican League this winter and said he really looked sharp. I hope he's right.
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