It's about time to start eating crow, I figured I'd get a head start this week...
1. Texas (24-4, 11-2) I've badmouthed Rick Barnes a lot this year, but he's closing in on a Big 12 Title, a #1 seed, and possibly Big 12 Coach of the Year. It's hard to imagine who else could win it now unless K- State or Baylor win out.
2. Kansas (25-3, 10-3) I still thinks a #1 seed is possible, but they'd have to win the last three, and three in the tourney. Possible? Sure...maybe not quite as probable as it once seemed. One thing is for sure, the Hawks need to show some heart in their revenge game Saturday vs....
3. Kansas State (18-9, 8-5) To clear one thing up. I was not predicting a Wildcat collapse earlier in the week. I was just stating that if they did lose 3 of their next 4 (including a first round loss in the Big 12 Tourney) then it would be the greatest collapse in Big 12 history...and I stand by that.
4. Baylor (19-8, 7-6) Bears deserve the jump in ranking after a gut check win over KSU at home and a road win (even if it was at Colorado). I picked this team to win 5 games this year...count me amongst those who are surprised by the Bears possible tournament run.
5. Texas A&M (21-7, 7-6) I'm worried about the Aggies. No way they should have lost to Nebraska on Saturday. Now they have road games against Baylor and OU before a season finale at home against KU. They may blow this thing yet.
6. Okalahoma State (15-12, 6-7) No one in the league is hotter than the Cowboys. Home games against Nebraska and Oklahoma mean by this time next week this team could be firmly on the bubble.
7. Nebraska (17-9, 6-7) I told you I hate this team right? Every time I write them off they throw up a couple of pretty W's...then I get back on the bandwagon. All I'm saying is, their tourney hopes are not lost yet...amazingly.
8. Oklahoma (18-10, 6-7) The Sooners putting up 45 in back to back blowout losses is inexplicable. Now they have to win out, which doesn't seem likely.
9. Texas Tech (15-12, 6-7) A 44 point loss to A&M? UT and KU next on the schedule? They're done.
10. Missouri (15-13, 5-8) All hope of a miraculous run now lives in Kansas City. Wouldn't that be fun? The first year in the Sprint Center, the Tigers making a run to the finals...stranger things have happened...probably.
11. Iowa State (14-14, 4-9) Done.
12. Colorado (10-17, 2-11) Iowa State, @ Kansas State, @ Nebraska...can they win one and avoid 20 losses? They might be able to win one, but unless they skip the Big 12 tournament they won't be able to avoid 20 losses.
I'd like to take this moment, with my mouth full of crow, to remind you that I did pick Michael Beasley as the unquestioned player of the year here. Coach of the Year? Well, we're 3 straight Nebraska wins away from that being a possibility...never say never.
Postseason Projections
Kansas #1 seed
Texas #2 seed
Kansas State #7 seed
Baylor, A&M #10 seed
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
I'm lost
It's going to take me at least another 24 hours to figure out the Big 12 race after the last week...it's ridiculous. Between that and the fact that it's Spring Play season at the Elementary school means the Big 12 Report won't be up until tomorrow...also pushing back my next Royals blog to week 2. How about Hochevar going 6 up 6 down yesterday though?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Starstruck 2/27
Lyons effort not enough in MU's loss to Oklahoma State
Leo Lyons was a monster last night, much like Mizzou fans wish he had been all year. With career highs in both points (27) and rebounds (18) Lyons tried to will the Tigers on to the bubble himself...but it wasn't enough. Don't fault Lyons or the Tigers, their opponent, Oklahoma State, is simply on fire....they've won 5 of 6 and it looks like maybe I was writing about the wrong team streaking on to the bubble. It's looking very possible that the Cowboys will be 17-12, 8-7 going into their season finale at Texas. Of course, the Longhorns will be(most likely) playing for the Big 12 Championship, so it won't be a cakewalk. As for the Tigers, they'll have to win 4 in a row in Kansas City if they want to go dancing....
K-State basketball wallowing in negativity
As usual Whitlock is over the top here, and scathing. The one thing I'll say about this K-State team? I'm not sure everyone realizes how close they are to a ginormous collapse...They were 17-5, 7-1 and in sole possession of first place just two and a half weeks ago. Since then they've lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska, Baylor, and Texas at home with their only win being a revenge pounding of Mizzou. The Wildcats must have one more win and may need two more to make the tournament...to get two they'd have to win a road game which they haven't done in over a month. I'm not saying it will happen...just that it could...and if it does, it may rank as one of the biggest collapses in Big 12 history.
Leo Lyons was a monster last night, much like Mizzou fans wish he had been all year. With career highs in both points (27) and rebounds (18) Lyons tried to will the Tigers on to the bubble himself...but it wasn't enough. Don't fault Lyons or the Tigers, their opponent, Oklahoma State, is simply on fire....they've won 5 of 6 and it looks like maybe I was writing about the wrong team streaking on to the bubble. It's looking very possible that the Cowboys will be 17-12, 8-7 going into their season finale at Texas. Of course, the Longhorns will be(most likely) playing for the Big 12 Championship, so it won't be a cakewalk. As for the Tigers, they'll have to win 4 in a row in Kansas City if they want to go dancing....
K-State basketball wallowing in negativity
As usual Whitlock is over the top here, and scathing. The one thing I'll say about this K-State team? I'm not sure everyone realizes how close they are to a ginormous collapse...They were 17-5, 7-1 and in sole possession of first place just two and a half weeks ago. Since then they've lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska, Baylor, and Texas at home with their only win being a revenge pounding of Mizzou. The Wildcats must have one more win and may need two more to make the tournament...to get two they'd have to win a road game which they haven't done in over a month. I'm not saying it will happen...just that it could...and if it does, it may rank as one of the biggest collapses in Big 12 history.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Believe it or not
Fine I'll say it. If Mizzou wins tonight, they've got a realistic shot at making the tournament. In fact, I'd say a better shot than Kansas would have of winning the Big 12. Seems absurd? With a win tonight the Tigers would be 16-12, 6-7 and a half game out of 4th place in the third or 4th best conference in the country. They'd have games left at Baylor, home against Iowa State at home and at Oklahoma. Missouri can win all three of those games and if they did they'd be all but in. If they won two of them they'd be 19-13, 8-8 with wins over the (likely) Big 12 Champs and (possible) Big 10 Co Champs. This is a HUGE game for the Tigers. Let's hope Mizzou Arena is rocking because if it is it's hard to see OSU winning tonight.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Finally, the lineup
All of the focus it seems is on the pitching with the Royals this year...
Who will win the last two spots in the rotation?
Will Meche and Bannister be as good as last year?
Will Greinke finally turn into the stud we think he can be?
Can Yasuhiko Yabuta be the next great Japanese set up man?
How will the sophomore season of closer Joakim Soria go?
All of these questions and more are important. Heck, I won't even debate that pitching wins championships. Nope, no questioning the importance of pitching but there is one other thing you can't debate; you have to score runs to win...especially in the American League. How is this team going to do that? Last year the Royals finished 27th in the majors in runs scored, no matter how good the pitching is, that won't cut it...but there's reason for hope:
- Jose Guillen. I should be able to stop at the period, but there are enough naysayers out there, I'll offer this: Guillen would have been the best bat on the Royals last year, there's no reason to expect anything different this year. He gives this lineup a sense of legitimacy it didn't have last year...much like Gil Meche did for the rotation last year. Guillen will make Gordon, Butler, and Teahan better.
- Billy Butler drove in 52 runs(5th on the team) in only 329 at bats. Not a great percentage, but assuming he's closer to 550 at bats this season he should be more productive than any bat the Royals had last year. I think .320/25 HRs/90 RBI is a very realistic projection of Butler's sophomore year.
- No way Alex Gordon starts as bad as he did last year. After the break he hit .264 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 70 games. I think it's very possible that's we'll see him in the same 25 Homer 90 RBI ball park as Billy Butler.
- Trey Hillman has a new approach. I've heard this a lot, but I'm not sure exactly what it is. Regardless, it has to be better than Buddy Bell's approach...anything different is better. One thing I have heard is that he likes to manufacture runs and Joey Gathright could be a big part of that plan. Gathright's talent and speed is unquestionable, I just hope we've found someone who can hone it.
With that being said, here's the lineup I'd put out there 150 games a year:
CF Joey Gathright
LF David DeJesus
DH Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
C John Buck
1B Mark Teahan
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena Jr
Now I know a lot of you are wondering why Teahan and Grudz are at the bottom...I think we know what we have in these guys, decent hitters...consistent...solid...but not legitimate 2 and 3 hitters. We're hoping that Gordon and Butler can develop into middle of the order guys right? Why not start them there with some protection? Won't they see a lot more fastballs there then if they're hitting in front of TPJ? My case for Gathright? He's the only legit leadoff hitter we have and he hit .307 last year. More important than that? He's a raw talent. Yeah, he still needs polishing, but so did Willie Wilson, we've got to take a chance on raw talents like this and give them a chance to turn into what they could.
Now here is the lineup I expect...(once Guillen's suspension is over)
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
LF Mark Teahan
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena Jr
To me, that lineup isn't near as exciting. But what would be exciting is if Hillman chose a lineup and stuck with it. I understand he may be a tinkerer, but Buddy Bell's 'experimenting' with the lineup got very old and in my opinion was a detriment to the team.
What do I expect either of those lineups to do? Score more runs than last year. It seems to me that top 20 would be a nice improvement, and with our pitching top 15 could get us into the playoff race. I think both of those are possible, with Gordon and Butler turning into borderline superstars.
Who will win the last two spots in the rotation?
Will Meche and Bannister be as good as last year?
Will Greinke finally turn into the stud we think he can be?
Can Yasuhiko Yabuta be the next great Japanese set up man?
How will the sophomore season of closer Joakim Soria go?
All of these questions and more are important. Heck, I won't even debate that pitching wins championships. Nope, no questioning the importance of pitching but there is one other thing you can't debate; you have to score runs to win...especially in the American League. How is this team going to do that? Last year the Royals finished 27th in the majors in runs scored, no matter how good the pitching is, that won't cut it...but there's reason for hope:
- Jose Guillen. I should be able to stop at the period, but there are enough naysayers out there, I'll offer this: Guillen would have been the best bat on the Royals last year, there's no reason to expect anything different this year. He gives this lineup a sense of legitimacy it didn't have last year...much like Gil Meche did for the rotation last year. Guillen will make Gordon, Butler, and Teahan better.
- Billy Butler drove in 52 runs(5th on the team) in only 329 at bats. Not a great percentage, but assuming he's closer to 550 at bats this season he should be more productive than any bat the Royals had last year. I think .320/25 HRs/90 RBI is a very realistic projection of Butler's sophomore year.
- No way Alex Gordon starts as bad as he did last year. After the break he hit .264 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 70 games. I think it's very possible that's we'll see him in the same 25 Homer 90 RBI ball park as Billy Butler.
- Trey Hillman has a new approach. I've heard this a lot, but I'm not sure exactly what it is. Regardless, it has to be better than Buddy Bell's approach...anything different is better. One thing I have heard is that he likes to manufacture runs and Joey Gathright could be a big part of that plan. Gathright's talent and speed is unquestionable, I just hope we've found someone who can hone it.
With that being said, here's the lineup I'd put out there 150 games a year:
CF Joey Gathright
LF David DeJesus
DH Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
C John Buck
1B Mark Teahan
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena Jr
Now I know a lot of you are wondering why Teahan and Grudz are at the bottom...I think we know what we have in these guys, decent hitters...consistent...solid...but not legitimate 2 and 3 hitters. We're hoping that Gordon and Butler can develop into middle of the order guys right? Why not start them there with some protection? Won't they see a lot more fastballs there then if they're hitting in front of TPJ? My case for Gathright? He's the only legit leadoff hitter we have and he hit .307 last year. More important than that? He's a raw talent. Yeah, he still needs polishing, but so did Willie Wilson, we've got to take a chance on raw talents like this and give them a chance to turn into what they could.
Now here is the lineup I expect...(once Guillen's suspension is over)
CF David DeJesus
2B Mark Grudzielanek
LF Mark Teahan
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
1B Ross Gload
C John Buck
SS Tony Pena Jr
To me, that lineup isn't near as exciting. But what would be exciting is if Hillman chose a lineup and stuck with it. I understand he may be a tinkerer, but Buddy Bell's 'experimenting' with the lineup got very old and in my opinion was a detriment to the team.
What do I expect either of those lineups to do? Score more runs than last year. It seems to me that top 20 would be a nice improvement, and with our pitching top 15 could get us into the playoff race. I think both of those are possible, with Gordon and Butler turning into borderline superstars.
Big 12 Shake up
Kansas and Kansas State are falling, and if Texas beats K-State tonight the race is all but over. But the other team in the area, the Missouri Tigers, find themselves just a game out of 4th... A week ago their game tomorrow night against Oklahoma State looks like it would be played solely for pride, now it's to stay within a game of the the last bye in the Big 12 Tournament...and maybe to stay in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid. That's almost as hard to believe as the fact that Kansas State lost to Baylor with Michael Beasley and Bill Walker combining for 75. The Wildcats are going to have to learn to guard someone...and fast.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Big 12 Report Week 6
It's that time of year to start talking about the Big Dance, the bubble and which teams are going where. All year long I've predicted where I thought the teams were going, but as we inch towards March, I thought I'd take a closer look at the postseason hopes of all of the teams in the race for the tourney, and at the same time try to figure out how many teams the Big 12 will land.
Number one and two in the power rankings, Kansas and Texas, are the only true locks I see for the conference. There are others that should be in, but not that I'm entirely certain could survive a collapse at the end of the year. Colorado, the season long bottom feeder of the league, is the only team I see that is completely eliminated (barring a Tournament Championship). With those three out of the equation, here's how I handicap the race:
(All predictions include Big 12 Tournament games)
In, Barring a Catastrophic Collapse
Kansas State (18-7, 8-3) A lot of people think they should be in the locks category, but they've proven they can lose to some of the worst teams in the conference and their remaining schedule is brutal. At Baylor, Texas, at Kansas, Colorado, at Iowa State. The way the Wildcats have played on the road I'd say only one of those games is a lock to be a win, and I'm not certain one more win gets them in. Prediction: 21-11, 10-6, 8 seed
Oklahoma (18-8, 6-5) The Sooners are the opposite side of the spectrum. Their resume may not be quite as impressive as KSU's now, but their remaining schedule includes Nebraska, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. Prediction: 22-11, 9-7, 9 seed
Texas A&M (20-6, 6-5) The Aggies had a bad week, but truthfully they may be the only team that can get in at 8-8 in conference because they were so good in the non-con. A loss to Nebraska this weekend would change everything though. Prediction: 24-9, 9-7, 8 seed
Stumbling Down the Stretch
Baylor (17-8, 5-6) Remember all of that talk about Scott Drew as coach of the year? He'll deserve it if he can right this ship enough to make the tourney. Bears can lose only once more in my estimation. Their remaining schedule? K-State, at Colorado, Missouri, A&M, at Tech. I don't think so. Prediction: 21-10, 8-8, NIT
Texas Tech (14-11, 5-6) Golden opportunities have continually passed the Red Raiders by this season, but perhaps none more crucial that two two point losses to Oklahoma. That's also probably the biggest reason the Red Raiders postseason hopes seem so grim. Prediction: 17-14, 7-9
Working Without a Net
Oklahoma State (13-12, 4-7) Cowboys are the hottest of the teams left living on a prayer, but they face Kansas tomorrow, which may cool them off. After that, the rest of their games are at least winnable, save the season finale vs. Texas. Prediction: 17-15, 7-9
Missouri (14-12, 4-7) Last week I wrote about how the Tigers could still sneak into the postseason and they promptly got drilled by Kansas State. The funny thing is, they still can. The remaining schedule is very friendly (Colorado, Oklahoma St, at Baylor, Iowa St, at Oklahoma), but the Tigers must win out. Prediction: 16-16, 6-10
Nebraska (15-9, 4-7) I'm beginning to hate this team. We talk about what an enigma Kansas State is, but they are no more so than the Huskers. No one outside of the state of Kansas has beat them by more than 8 this year. With A&M, OU, and Texas on the schedule that's about to change. Prediction: 17-13, 6-10
Iowa State (14-12, 4-7) Only two home games left for the Clones, and they're against KU and KSU. A conference road win would be the first this year, odds do not look good. Prediction: 15-17, 5-11
As sad as it is it's looking like a 5 bid year for the Big 12. Sure, if Baylor could get to 22 wins and an 8-8 record they may have a shot...as would any of the other teams if they could run off 5 in a row...I just don't see it happening. As for the top dogs? Kansas still looks good for a #1 to me, but can probably only lose one more the rest of the way. Texas, with their win over A&M is a solid #3 with the chance to get into the discussion for a 2.
Number one and two in the power rankings, Kansas and Texas, are the only true locks I see for the conference. There are others that should be in, but not that I'm entirely certain could survive a collapse at the end of the year. Colorado, the season long bottom feeder of the league, is the only team I see that is completely eliminated (barring a Tournament Championship). With those three out of the equation, here's how I handicap the race:
(All predictions include Big 12 Tournament games)
In, Barring a Catastrophic Collapse
Kansas State (18-7, 8-3) A lot of people think they should be in the locks category, but they've proven they can lose to some of the worst teams in the conference and their remaining schedule is brutal. At Baylor, Texas, at Kansas, Colorado, at Iowa State. The way the Wildcats have played on the road I'd say only one of those games is a lock to be a win, and I'm not certain one more win gets them in. Prediction: 21-11, 10-6, 8 seed
Oklahoma (18-8, 6-5) The Sooners are the opposite side of the spectrum. Their resume may not be quite as impressive as KSU's now, but their remaining schedule includes Nebraska, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. Prediction: 22-11, 9-7, 9 seed
Texas A&M (20-6, 6-5) The Aggies had a bad week, but truthfully they may be the only team that can get in at 8-8 in conference because they were so good in the non-con. A loss to Nebraska this weekend would change everything though. Prediction: 24-9, 9-7, 8 seed
Stumbling Down the Stretch
Baylor (17-8, 5-6) Remember all of that talk about Scott Drew as coach of the year? He'll deserve it if he can right this ship enough to make the tourney. Bears can lose only once more in my estimation. Their remaining schedule? K-State, at Colorado, Missouri, A&M, at Tech. I don't think so. Prediction: 21-10, 8-8, NIT
Texas Tech (14-11, 5-6) Golden opportunities have continually passed the Red Raiders by this season, but perhaps none more crucial that two two point losses to Oklahoma. That's also probably the biggest reason the Red Raiders postseason hopes seem so grim. Prediction: 17-14, 7-9
Working Without a Net
Oklahoma State (13-12, 4-7) Cowboys are the hottest of the teams left living on a prayer, but they face Kansas tomorrow, which may cool them off. After that, the rest of their games are at least winnable, save the season finale vs. Texas. Prediction: 17-15, 7-9
Missouri (14-12, 4-7) Last week I wrote about how the Tigers could still sneak into the postseason and they promptly got drilled by Kansas State. The funny thing is, they still can. The remaining schedule is very friendly (Colorado, Oklahoma St, at Baylor, Iowa St, at Oklahoma), but the Tigers must win out. Prediction: 16-16, 6-10
Nebraska (15-9, 4-7) I'm beginning to hate this team. We talk about what an enigma Kansas State is, but they are no more so than the Huskers. No one outside of the state of Kansas has beat them by more than 8 this year. With A&M, OU, and Texas on the schedule that's about to change. Prediction: 17-13, 6-10
Iowa State (14-12, 4-7) Only two home games left for the Clones, and they're against KU and KSU. A conference road win would be the first this year, odds do not look good. Prediction: 15-17, 5-11
As sad as it is it's looking like a 5 bid year for the Big 12. Sure, if Baylor could get to 22 wins and an 8-8 record they may have a shot...as would any of the other teams if they could run off 5 in a row...I just don't see it happening. As for the top dogs? Kansas still looks good for a #1 to me, but can probably only lose one more the rest of the way. Texas, with their win over A&M is a solid #3 with the chance to get into the discussion for a 2.
Sorry
The Big 12 Report is already a day late, I'm gonne try to wrap it up by noon today. What's the problem? Well, it could be the two hour commute I've had the last two days due to Crashapalooza on 71 Highway, or the fact that I can't find any way to describe my feelings on a K-State team that beats Kansas but losses to Tech, Mizzou and Nebraska...either way, I'm aiming for a 12 noon release.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Starstruck 2/20
Guillen makes presence felt on first day in Royals’ camp
I can’t tell you how excited I was by this article. You all know, I’m a bit of a Royals homer (or at least the Kool Aid Drinker is)…but I spent the off-season defending Dayton and this move, just like I did last year with the Gil Meche signing. Here’s why I think this could work:
Kansas City needs a big shot and Jose Guillen needs somewhere that he can be the big shot. He can make his demands, go off on a tangent every once in a while…whatever. I think we have just the right mix of guys here to say “Okay, that’s just Jose being Jose” and laugh it off. I mean, Emil’s gone, someone has to make ridiculous statements.
From reading this article, and everything else I’ve read, it sounds like the team is really reaching out to Jose, maybe even coddling him a little…fantastic. There aren’t any egos too big on this team, which to me means there’s plenty of room for Guillen’s…kind of like how the Red Sox treat Man Ram…Yeah, I know, Guillen’s no Man Ram…the talent in our locker room isn’t the same as the Red Sox either…I really think this could work…
Progress in Allen negotiations may be problem with Peterson
Okay, a lot of you are probably thinking “Surprise, surprise another Whitlock Anti-Carl column”. Yeah, you’re right…and so is Whitlock. King Carl’s reign of terror is almost over, everyone knows that. Whether Carl decides to leave on his own or Clark Hunt finally fires him I doubt there’s anyone that expects Carl to be with the Chiefs in three years. So as a parting gift he’s going to chase off yet another great Chief? Shocking!
How much of Donnie Edwards prime did we miss? Think we’re getting ready think the same thing about Kawika Mitchell? How about John Tait? Think we could have used him this season? Now I know you can’t sign everyone, but Carl has made a habit of alienating players that we as fans really end up missing.
Bottom line, Jared Allen is bigger than Edwards, Mitchell or Tait…Jared Allen is the face of the Chiefs right now. You think fans relate to LJ? Please. Brodie? Most of them want him gone. It’s Jared Allen, and besides that, he’s a stud. If Carl blows this it’ll be a fitting black eye for him to leave on the organization.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Starstruck
Olivo disappointed that Buck enters camp as Royals’ starting catcher
I love reading this story. As long as Olivo isn't cancerous about this, it's exactly what we want. You really want someone on your team that's okay with being a backup? Did you see Jason LaBOOOOOO last year? I said earlier this year that Buck would be the starter, regardless of the Oliva acquisition, but the competition can't hurt.
Chiefs put franchise tag on defensive end Allen
I don't love reading this. Like so many things that have happened at Arrowhead...WHY?!?! Why didn't we get a long term deal done long before this? Why spend 8.9 million on Allen this year, when no one thinks we'll be competitive, if it pretty much assures that he won't be back next year? Allen is easily the most popular guy on the team, maybe in the city and everyone is going to take his side. Surely Carl has a better plan than this to keep him in KC, right?
I love reading this story. As long as Olivo isn't cancerous about this, it's exactly what we want. You really want someone on your team that's okay with being a backup? Did you see Jason LaBOOOOOO last year? I said earlier this year that Buck would be the starter, regardless of the Oliva acquisition, but the competition can't hurt.
Chiefs put franchise tag on defensive end Allen
I don't love reading this. Like so many things that have happened at Arrowhead...WHY?!?! Why didn't we get a long term deal done long before this? Why spend 8.9 million on Allen this year, when no one thinks we'll be competitive, if it pretty much assures that he won't be back next year? Allen is easily the most popular guy on the team, maybe in the city and everyone is going to take his side. Surely Carl has a better plan than this to keep him in KC, right?
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