Monday, June 8, 2009

Dayton, year 2

As the abomination of a season continues for the Royals, I take a look at year two's worth of choices in the Dayton Moore regime. While Moore's first year seemed to be filled with a trade every other week the second is more defined by his free agents and their (lack of) success. First, starting where I did last year, a look at the first 4 picks of the first draft that Dayton actually takes credit for:

Round 1- #2 overall- Mike Moustakas- After a terrible start to last year, Moustakas really turned it on and ended up leading his league in home runs with 22. This year he's hitting .263 with 7 home runs and 35 RBI in 49 games. Everyone says that this guy, being a high school draftee, will take 3-4 years before he's ready for the bigs...well we're half way through year 2, shouldn't he at least be in AA?

Round 2-#66 overall- Sam Runion- 7.26 ERA in Low A ball...that's terrible even for a 20 year old. 20 Ks and 14 BB in 48 innings this year.

Round 3- #96 overall- Danny Duffy- Now this is what you expect out of a Dayton Moore draft pick. Dominating Low A ball for two years in a row now, 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA striking out almost a batter an inning...get this guy moving!

Round 4-#126 overall- Mitch Hodge- Disappeared from the baseball landscape after posting a 9.79 ERA in the Arizona rookie league last year. Maybe is only playing Rookie ball again? Regardless, not a good sign.

Trades
Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies- Fantastic start to year 2 for Dayton Moore right? Dotel injured himself almost immediately and Davies became...well...what has Kyle Davies become? According to Baseball-Reference the closest thing to Davies is...wait for it...Runelvys Hernandez! This is really the make or break year for Davies and so far he's 2-5 with a 5+ ERA. I'd say he's a legitimate #5 starter if he can learn to eat innings.

Danny Christensen for Roman Colon- Christensen is still struggling through AA with the Tigers while Colon has finally made it back to the Bigs with the Royals. Colon hasn't done enough to call this a win yet, pretty irrelevant really.

Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo- Last year I thought this was a terrible trade...last month I thought it was fantastic...now I really don't know what to think. Callaspo has proven several times in the past that his off field decision making leaves much to be desired. Now that he's playing full time I think we can say the same for his baseball instincts. He really isn't fast, he has little power...but he can put the bat on the ball...that's not disputable. Buckner is a 26 year old pitcher with a career 4.86 ERA who has just been given a chance as a starter for the Diamondbacks.

Justin Huber for player to be named later- Anything we got for this Aussie was worth it.

Jorge De La Rosa and cash for Ramon Ramirez- Officially the Royals traded a player to be named later for Ram Ram and then weeks later traded De La Rosa for a player to be names later. Why? I have no idea, but no matter how you slice it, this was probably Dayton's best trade of year 2. Ram Ram was dominant in 2008 and then the Royals turned him into Coco Crisp, DeLa Rosa has been exactly what we thought he was: an enigma. 10-8 in 2008 with a 4.92, 0-6 in 2009 with a 5.43 ERA...not terrible, but not near as good as Ramirez was.

Henry Arias for Brad Salmon- Arias is a 24 year old pitcher in High A ball with an ERA around 7, Salmon's almost 30 and no longer still in the minors...but not with the Royals...in other words, irrelevant.

While year two was much less active, it was also much more productive. Looks to me like 2 wins, no real losses, one trade that's TBD (Callaspo/Buckner) and three that mean nothing at all. That brings Dayton's record through two year's to 4-4-10...pretty inconclusive. However, year two's class of free agent signings sheds a little (or a lot) of light on the Royals problems.

Yasuhiko Yabuta 2 Yrs $5 million- Yabuta's early season struggles were at least a part of the Royals' collapse last season. This year he gets passed over by the likes of Roman Colon when the Royals need a quick fix in the bullpen. Terrible signing.
Jose Guillen 3 yrs $36 million- Last year Guillen hit .264 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI...this year he's on pace for a much worse season. That's not to mention his terrible defense, his clubhouse outbursts, or his complete lack of speed on the base paths. Jose Guillen is a player that took steroids to become a slightly above average player and without them he's just very very average. This signing wasn't terrible, but it certainly isn't good.
Ron Mahay 2 yrs- Mahay made $4 million last year and he was definitely worth it. One thing Dayton Moore has been able to do is find relievers in bunches. Hopefully Mahay is one that he can trade this summer...and hopefully it'll be more successful than the Affeldt/Howell trades of year 1.
Miguel Olivo 1 yr $2 million- I never understood why we were spending money on a backup catcher when we already had one. Olivo has a great arm but that's about the only thing he offers that Buck doesn't. This move doesn't kill us...by itself.
Brett Tomko 1 yr $3 million- Tomko was so terrible the Royals released him on June 21 of last year, and we know how hard it is for the Royals to give up on someone they've invested in.
Brayan Pena waivers- I think Pena was a really good signing...if they hadn't just spent 2 million on Olivo.

Anyways, you're looking at about $25 million (or 40% of our 2008 payroll) for this group of players. Once again, yes we improved, but did we improve enough to justify the money we spent? Doesn't seem so to me. In year two I see further example that David Glass is making more of a commitment to make this team better while Dayton Moore may well be squandering that opportunity with poor decision making.

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