Big 12 Report Week 6

It's that time of year to start talking about the Big Dance, the bubble and which teams are going where. All year long I've predicted where I thought the teams were going, but as we inch towards March, I thought I'd take a closer look at the postseason hopes of all of the teams in the race for the tourney, and at the same time try to figure out how many teams the Big 12 will land.

Number one and two in the power rankings, Kansas and Texas, are the only true locks I see for the conference. There are others that should be in, but not that I'm entirely certain could survive a collapse at the end of the year. Colorado, the season long bottom feeder of the league, is the only team I see that is completely eliminated (barring a Tournament Championship). With those three out of the equation, here's how I handicap the race:

(All predictions include Big 12 Tournament games)

In, Barring a Catastrophic Collapse

Kansas State (18-7, 8-3) A lot of people think they should be in the locks category, but they've proven they can lose to some of the worst teams in the conference and their remaining schedule is brutal. At Baylor, Texas, at Kansas, Colorado, at Iowa State. The way the Wildcats have played on the road I'd say only one of those games is a lock to be a win, and I'm not certain one more win gets them in. Prediction: 21-11, 10-6, 8 seed

Oklahoma (18-8, 6-5) The Sooners are the opposite side of the spectrum. Their resume may not be quite as impressive as KSU's now, but their remaining schedule includes Nebraska, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. Prediction: 22-11, 9-7, 9 seed

Texas A&M (20-6, 6-5) The Aggies had a bad week, but truthfully they may be the only team that can get in at 8-8 in conference because they were so good in the non-con. A loss to Nebraska this weekend would change everything though. Prediction: 24-9, 9-7, 8 seed

Stumbling Down the Stretch

Baylor (17-8, 5-6) Remember all of that talk about Scott Drew as coach of the year? He'll deserve it if he can right this ship enough to make the tourney. Bears can lose only once more in my estimation. Their remaining schedule? K-State, at Colorado, Missouri, A&M, at Tech. I don't think so. Prediction: 21-10, 8-8, NIT

Texas Tech (14-11, 5-6) Golden opportunities have continually passed the Red Raiders by this season, but perhaps none more crucial that two two point losses to Oklahoma. That's also probably the biggest reason the Red Raiders postseason hopes seem so grim. Prediction: 17-14, 7-9

Working Without a Net

Oklahoma State (13-12, 4-7) Cowboys are the hottest of the teams left living on a prayer, but they face Kansas tomorrow, which may cool them off. After that, the rest of their games are at least winnable, save the season finale vs. Texas. Prediction: 17-15, 7-9

Missouri (14-12, 4-7) Last week I wrote about how the Tigers could still sneak into the postseason and they promptly got drilled by Kansas State. The funny thing is, they still can. The remaining schedule is very friendly (Colorado, Oklahoma St, at Baylor, Iowa St, at Oklahoma), but the Tigers must win out. Prediction: 16-16, 6-10

Nebraska (15-9, 4-7) I'm beginning to hate this team. We talk about what an enigma Kansas State is, but they are no more so than the Huskers. No one outside of the state of Kansas has beat them by more than 8 this year. With A&M, OU, and Texas on the schedule that's about to change. Prediction: 17-13, 6-10

Iowa State (14-12, 4-7) Only two home games left for the Clones, and they're against KU and KSU. A conference road win would be the first this year, odds do not look good. Prediction: 15-17, 5-11

As sad as it is it's looking like a 5 bid year for the Big 12. Sure, if Baylor could get to 22 wins and an 8-8 record they may have a shot...as would any of the other teams if they could run off 5 in a row...I just don't see it happening. As for the top dogs? Kansas still looks good for a #1 to me, but can probably only lose one more the rest of the way. Texas, with their win over A&M is a solid #3 with the chance to get into the discussion for a 2.