Pitchers and Catchers Report!

Today it all begins...no, not the Roger Clemens (alleged) perjury debacle...although that is a developing story that the Kool Aid Drinker is following closely, and you can too here. Nope, as big as the congressional hearing is, it's small potatoes compared to what starts today (officially) in Surprise, Arizona:

The Resurrection of the Royals... Led by Trey Hillman, orchestrated by Dayton Moore and brought to life by the likes of Awesome Alex Gordon and Bad Ass Billy Butler, this is finally the year that Kansas City returns to the baseball glory of the 70s and 80s. How? With pitching of course. That being said, the Kool Aid Drinker opens Spring Training with his look at the pitching staff...

(ed. note- This was originally going to be about the entire staff, but I wrote way too much on the starting rotation, and decided to save the Bullpen for Sunday.)

Rotation

There are three locks here; Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke. What I'm hoping is that Greinke and Bannister both out-perform Meche who is a pretty good bet to be between a 3.75 and 4.25 ERA. I'd assume that conventional wisdom indicates that Bannister has a slight dropoff as the league now has a book on him, but by the same token I think it's possible that Greinke has a breakout season, and if he gets run support and stays healthy he may approach 20 wins. In last week's blog I wrote that I expected Brett Tomko and De La Rosa to take the last two spots and I still think they're the favorites. Tomko, because that's what the Royals signed him for and I think he'd have to lose the job, De La Rosa because the Royals want a lefty starter and I think John Bale is better served as a reliever. But there are other candidates...

Kyle Davies- Probably has the best stuff, and I predicted earlier that he'd take Tomko's spot in May...Billy Butler said Davies looked really good at Winter Ball.

Luke Hochevar- This is best case scenario, he's 24 and a former first round pick...I think it's a bad sign if we don't see him in the majors at some point this season, but more likely it will be after the All Star Break.

Tyler Lumsden- Another guy battling with De La Rosa and Bale for the lefty spot...also 24 years old...also probably starts in Omaha.

Leo Nunez- Leave this guy in the bullpen.

Hideo "Nomo Mr. Nice Guy"- This is where things get interesting, the non-roster invitees. Noma was terrible (9-19, 7+ ERA) in 2004 and 2005 and then took 2 years off. This would be a national story if he makes the rotation.

Brian Lawrence- Lawrence also missed 2006, and was terrible in six games in 2007. But he was above average at one point and is only 31. I'd say his odds are much better than Nomo's and if given a chance he could challenge for a spot.

Ben Hendrickson- Okay, this is a stretch. He's a 27 year old righty with a 7.41 ERA in 12 career starts.

and the official Kool Aid Drinker Dark Horse Award goes to...

Mike Maroth- Yes, that Mike Maroth. If you didn't pay attention last year you'd probably wonder how the Royals signed Maroth to a minor league deal. Hop into the Kool Aid Drinker Time Machine and we'll take you back to 2006....

Maroth entered 2006 (his 5th in the majors) having won more games in each of his first four major league seasons, he was 28, he was ready to "Gil Meche" if you will. He started hot before hurting his elbow, having surgery and missing 3 months of the season. Still, he came back in 2007 and started 5-2 (albeit with a 5.06 ERA) before being traded to the hated Cardinals. Well, Maroth did what any self respecting heterosexual man would do upon being traded to St. Louis, he bombed...and when I say bombed I mean 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA... He went 2006 Joe Mays on them. So why is he my dark horse? He's a lefty with good enough stuff that he was once a great prospect, who had an injury, bombed for the most hated team this side of the Yankees and now Dayton Moore has picked him up off the scrap heap. What's not to like? Add to that that Bob McClure is already fixing his delivery and he has his own blog...Yep, that seals it, the Kool Aid Drinker is a member of the Mike Maroth fan club...now I just need a nickname for him...

Projected Opening Day Rotation
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Brett Tomko
Mike Maroth

In line...

Brian Lawrence
Kyle Davies
Luke Hochevar
Tyler Lumsden

(ed. note- Someone asked "You state De La Rose is a favorite, but then don't mention him here?" Well, yeah. I think he is the favorite for the lefty spot coming into camp but I think his control issues dictate he'll either end up in the bullpen or out of the equation altogether...I hope I'm wrong but he was bad at the end of last year, his ERA rising from 4.65 to 5.82 after June 5.)